2017 American League East Season Preview
Ah the AL East, that hotbed of money, competition, and heartbreak. In 2016, the AL East earned the unique distinction of “division to produce the most playoff teams in one year – ever.” That, despite an arguably ho-hum season overall. The traditional powerhouse Yankees began their rebuild and the hapless Rays were hapless. The Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Orioles were all similarly up and down, yet somehow all wound up in the playoffs. What on earth will 2017 bring?
New York Yankees: Age is just a number?
Besieged by old contracts, the Yankees slogged through many of the last few years; handcuffed by ownership, General Manager Brian Cashman bided his time. Finally, in 2016, he got the green light – and lo and behold, a GM emerged. Out went old, bad contracts and in came a slew of prospects. Cashman flexed his GM muscle in what now looks like a coup with Aroldis Chapman‘s quick jaunt over to Chicago for some jewelry shopping, followed by immediate return to the Bronx.
In 2017, the Yankees will field a yin yang squad that looks to find a balance between the old (CC Sabathia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Chris Carter, Matt Holliday, and Chase Headley), and the very young (Gary Sanchez, who was listed among Whistle Sports’ rising stars, Aaron Judge, Greg Bird, Luis Severino, and perhaps Gleyber Torres.)
Real problems arise when it comes to the rotation. While the bullpen of Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, Tyler Clippard, Tommy Layne, and Adam Warren appears capable of pitching about 5 solid innings a game, the sad reality is that it might have to. After Masahiro Tanaka, the dropoff is immense, and the youth in the rotation isn’t ready to contribute to the big club just yet.
That youth though is tremendously exciting far beyond Sanchez and Bird. With the departures of Chapman, Andrew Miller, and others last year, the farm was restocked in a big way, reaching an unheard of #1 ranking according to MLB.com.
With so much youth on the horizon, the Yankees find themselves in an enviable position: not quite *supposed* to compete yet, but so stocked with talent, promise, and energy that a 2017 run is far form out of the question.
Tampa Bay Rays: The retooling continues
When a pitcher of Chris Archer‘s caliber leads the league in losses, you know respectability is a long way off. That was the case for the 2016 Rays, and, bluntly, 2017 isn’t looking much better.
A number of new additions (Wilson Ramos, Colby Rasmus, Mallex Smith, Shawn Tolleson, Tommy Hunter, Jose De Leon, Rickie Weeks, and Jesus Sucre at last count) engender a moment’s optimism, but closer inspection returns expectations to a baseline “meh.” Of the group, De Leon is a legitimate arm / potential longterm contributor, but the rest of the contingent reeks of water-treading mediocrity.
Unlike in New York, who hopes to belie its frail pitching staff with 500 foot bombs, the Rays (as the Rays are wont to do) will look to win a lot of 1-0 games behind a truly stellar rotation of Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Alex Cobb, Blake Snell, and Matt Andriese / (with Jose De Leon sprinkled in for good measure, likely at some point).
As the saying goes, pitching and defense do win championships… but you need offense to get there. With Archer locked up through 2021, Odorizzi just getting to arbitration, and Snell, De Leon, and Andriese well pre-arb, the Rays are quietly setting up a long-term winning rotation to rival the Indians. But this ain’t the year it pays off.
Toronto Blue Jays: What’s really going on up in Canada…?
The 2017 Toronto Blue Jays are something of a conundrum. Out is behemoth slugger Edwin Encarnacion, and in is… Mat Latos? And yet, optimism surrounds the Jays.
A young rotation, anchored by AL ERA leader Aaron Sanchez, J.A. Happ-ened-to-win-20-games-last-year, the methodically efficient Marco Estrada, and young gun Marcus Stroman (and, importantly, finally rid of R.A. Dickey) is backed by flame-throwing Roberto Osuna and Jason Grilli. That’s a solid pitching staff.
On the other side of the ball, Kendrys Morales is no Encarnacion, but a first 5 of Devon Travis, Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Morales, and Troy Tulowitski is formidable. There is significant dropoff thereafter, as a post-surgery Steve Pearce is the bright spot amongst Melvin Upton, Ezequiel Carrera, and Kevin Pilar. (This author personally hates Russel Martin and will say no good things about him here.)
All in all, it seems remarkable that Toronto seems poised for net addition by subtraction, even with the loss of Encarnacion. A healthy season from the starting rotation (even allowing for some regression for Happ), combined with a healthy Joey Bats and Morales hitting in the launchpad that is Sky Dome (yup, Sky Dome), should see the Blue Jays be surprisingly competitive in the AL East.
Baltimore Orioles: Where you can damn well bet Zach Britton gets the ball this time
Ah Buck Schowalter, temperamental bullpen-whisperer who toppled his house of cards at the last moment. OTB spoke to a source inside the Baltimore dugout who asked not to be identified for fear of repercussion, and we have it on good authority that – though it took him until late November to bring it up with the coaching staff – old Buck has indeed seen the error in his ways, and will throw Britton should that situation ever repeat itself.
As for the rest of the 2017 outlook, the O’s and Yankees seem to be employing a similar strategy: mash dingers until the bullpen can take over somewhere around the fourth inning. Bringing back Mark Trumbo and Chris Davis longterm means that the Oriole’s lineup has about 1000 home runs locked in through at least 2019. With Manny Machado (arb-3 in 2018) and Adam Jones (a free agent in the 2018 offseason) likely to depart after the 2018 season, they’ll hope most of the dingers come over the next two seasons.
Like the Yankees, the rotation is a sore spot that will ache all year in Baltimore….Sort of like Chris Tillman‘s shoulder… Outside of Tillman, Kevin Gausman had a breakout(ish) season last year, but Dylan Bundy, Ubaldo Jimenez, Wade Miley, and Tyler Wilson all had ERAs starting with distressingly high numbers.
Bottom line: to cover the ugly mess of a rotation this team will need to score a lot of runs. If Jones, Machado, Davis, Trumbo, and Jonathan Schoop can click at the plate, runs will indeed come in droves. The problem is that power is streaky, while bad pitching is consistent.
Boston Red Sox: Farrell’s last stand?
There is so much to be excited about in Boston. On paper, this is by far the most complete team in the division, and one of the most potent in the league at large. But it’s also Boston, where projectability is hampered by externalities. One thing seems clear, John Farrell is on the hot seat in 2017.
A rotation led by Chris Sale, David Price, and reigning Cy Young winner Rick Porcello, and rounded out by Steven Wright (who is once again healthy and once again un-scored upon this spring) and Drew Pomeranz / Eduardo Rodriguez is fearsome. But not without questions:
Can Price regain form? Is his elbow truly no big deal? Can Sale adjust to Boston? What kind of regression can we expect from Porcello? What kind of knuckle will Wright’s ball have this year? Can Rodriguez stay healthy and not tip his pitches?
And then there’s the bullpen, which suffers the same designation: An on-paper juggernaut with serious real-life questions: Which Craig Kimbrell will show up this year? What on earth is happening to Tyler Thornberg right now and can he right the ship? Can Matt Barnes handle the 7th or 8th on a regular basis?
This team will hit (a lot) and play stellar defense. From top to bottom – Dustin Pedroia, Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley, Pablo Sandoval, Mitch Moreland, Sandy Leon – the lineup is stacked with All-Stars and Gold Glove winners.
And also some questions… Will Bogaerts’ power emerge? Is Pedroia old now? If Betts doesn’t hit 8 bombs in 3 games again this year, what does the season line look like? Who is Benintendi going to be? What is Sandoval at this point? Was deLeon’s 2016 more or less than 50% of what can reasonably be expected this year?
Bold Predictions:
- Boston edges Toronto by two games to win the AL East
- Baltimore estranges its fanbase by making no further moves
- Joey Bats hits 52 homers
- Gary Sanchez hits 27 homers
- Xander Bogaerts hits 13 homers
