The Market for Free Agent Relievers: Part 1 – The Good Guys
The 2016-2017 MLB offseason was all about free agent closers with Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, and Mark Melancon signing the three largest contracts ever for relief pitchers. During that time, only two other non-closer free agent relievers (Brad Ziegler and Brett Cecil) signed contracts with average annual values (AAV) greater than $7 million.
The 2017-2018 offseason has already doubled the previous year’s $7 million-plus AAV relief pitcher signings and it doesn’t look likely that it will stop there with Wade Davis, Greg Holland, and other highly-regarded relief pitchers still on the free agent market.
The trend that is evident, however, is that this years’ signings show that teams are willing to pay more to mitigate long-term risk. Last year’s four largest reliever signings by AAV were all 4+ year contracts. The largest signing by AAV this year (Brandon Morrow, $10.5 million AAV) was a 2-year contract and the market has only seen three 3-year contracts signed thus far. With teams still needing to bolster their bullpens and a large group of available relievers of varied talent, the relievers’ Hot Stove is about to become piping hot.
This is the first part in a three-part series. The first part, here, will look at the players still available that are the best-in-class relievers. The second part will look at the next-best relievers, or the players who aren’t great, but have high floors and can be signed at a discount. The final part will look at the long-shots. These are the players that one may consider garbage, but another may see potential to be the “next big thing” and sign at a potentially huge bargain. Brandon Morrow would have been in this third bucket just a year ago.
Part 1: The No Brainers
Wade Davis, 32
2017 Stats
| W | L | SV | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | HR/FB | ERA | FIP |
| 4 | 2 | 32 | 58.2 | 12.12 | 4.3 | 0.92 | 0.262 | 12.0% | 2.30 | 3.38 |
According to Sportrac.com, Davis should pull in $45 million over 3 years ($15 million AAV). He is far-and-away the best available reliever left on the market, so I don’t see this projection as a stretch. At 32, he has a couple years left before his ability to dominate before finding a new career. In 2017, only 16 other relievers allowed batters to make less contact with the ball than Davis. His ability to miss bats (15.4% swinging strikes in 2017) and suppress runs is still elite and should remain so long as he stays healthy. He’s seen gradual declines in velocity across his pitch arsenal, most notably with his cutter, which may be cause for concern. However, the devastating cutter he is known for was actually more effective with the Cubs in 2017 even though he lost over a mile per hour (91.8 in 2016 to 90.4 in 2017) on the pitch.
Expected Contract: 3 Years, $45 million
Greg Holland, 32
2017 Stats
| W | L | SV | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | HR/FB | ERA | FIP |
| 3 | 6 | 41 | 57.1 | 10.99 | 4.08 | 1.10 | 0.252 | 11.3% | 3.61 | 3.72 |
Holland showed us in 2017 why he should never be written off. After missing the entire 2016 campaign for the Royals due to Tommy John Surgery, he signed a one-year deal with the Rockies, where he had an All-Star season, going 41-for-45 in save opportunities on his way to being named the National League’s Comeback Player of the Year. Looking at his Home/Away splits for 2017 is even more impressive as he was more effective at home than he was away. In most cases, this would make sense. However, pitching half of his games in the hitting-conducive, Little League-like environment that is Coors Field is notable. The only other reliever with this type of split on the Rockies in 2017 was Pat Neshek, who just signed a 2-year $16.2 million contract with the Phillies.
Of the remaining free agent relievers, Holland and Davis will be the ones to get paid a fortune. Given their elite talent and impressive resume, they’ll both be looking at similar contracts. One could easily argue that Davis will no doubt get the better contract, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Holland’s contract meet or exceed the value of Davis’.
Expected Contract: 3 years, $45 million
Addison Reed, 28
2017 Stats
| W | L | SV | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | HR/FB | ERA | FIP |
| 2 | 3 | 19 | 76 | 9 | 1.78 | 1.30 | 0.266 | 12.5% | 2.84 | 3.67 |
Reed isn’t your stereotypical top-of-the-line closer. He can’t touch 100MPH on the gun and he doesn’t strike out the side in the 9th. But what’s for sure is that the kid is nasty. He was traded at the deadline in 2017 after posting a 2.74 ERA with the Mets over 46 innings pitched. While with Boston, he seemingly struggled, posting a 3.46 ERA over 26 innings pitched. However, when you consider the fact that he only pitched 26 innings then you realize that one poor performance can really affect those numbers. When you just look at the 25.2 innings he pitched in the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings with the Red Sox, his ERA drops a whole point down to 2.45. It comes as no surprise that that one-third of an inning that affects his stats as a Red Sox came in a game against the New York Yankees where he gave up two hits before Aaron Judge hit a moon bomb off him at Yankees Stadium. That’s where my concern lies, however.
In 2015, Reed had his best season thus far, finishing with a 3.38 ERA and only allowing 0.48 HR/9 was well-below the league average of 0.94. He followed 2015 up with a breakout 2016 season. Finishing that season, he had a 1.97 ERA, he improved on his impressive ability to keep the ball in the park (0.46 HR/9), and he showed an impressive progression in his command (3.08 BB/9 in 2015 to 1.78 BB/9 in 2016). In 2017 he maintained similar numbers all-around, except he allowed 1.30 HR/9. Compared to the league average for relievers (1.16 HR/9 in 2017), he finished with a below-average number. If a closers job is to suppress runs in the 9th inning, an effective closer can keep the ball in the park to minimize damage.
Outside of this, however, Reed has shown constant progression to becoming one of the better, young relief pitchers in the game. In 2017, he went 19-for-21 in save opportunities and has shown endurance, while proving he can handle high-leverage situations. Any team looking for a closer should consider him the last, obvious talent on the market. His floor is high and his ceiling is even higher. Sportrac.com projects that he will sign for $36 million. I would consider this a steal given his resume at only 28 years old.
Expected Contract: 4 years, $40 million
In the second part of this series looking at the current free agent market for relief pitchers, I’ll look at the next tier of available pitchers that I call the “Playing It Safe” tier. These are the players who can be bought at a good bargain while having the ability to solidify the late-inning relief core.
