Red Sox Prepare for JD Martinez, Smugly
Apparently, John Henry was trolling the ride-or-die fans of Boston recently when he spoke about the team’s lackluster off-season as making ‘significant changes.’
Henry: 'In my mind we've made significant changes' pic.twitter.com/bFOZFVhQ6Q
— Rob Bradford (@bradfo) February 19, 2018
It goes without saying that the Red Sox needed a true power hitter if they were to compete with the young, powerful bats and arms on today’s best teams. Think: Dodgers, Yankees, Astros, and Indians. Up until Monday, they had done nothing to address this need and seemed content in their inaction, per Henry’s statements.
But that’s the genius of Dave Dombrowski, President of Baseball Operations for the Boston Red Sox.
Just a couple weeks ago, Dombrowski was criticized by Boston media – as most high-profile Boston sports figures are. When asked why he wouldn’t meet the demands of super agent Scott Boras to get his client, J.D. Martinez, for 7 years and $210 million, Dombrowski smugly asked why he would meet that offer and bid up his own team when they were the only team interested.
One reason I’ve always loved Dombo is because he knows baseball but he also knows business. The strongest position in any negotiation is the person who is willing to walk away and mean it. Dombrowski’s patient swagger saved the team millions.
The contract
5 years, $110 million, with a player opt-out clause in the 4th and 5th years of the contract. Assuming he doesn’t opt-out, the Average Annual Value of the contract comes to $22 million – $8 million and 2 years shy of his $30 million per year over 7 years asking price.
In my opinion, Boras lost this one. I love a short contract with opt-outs before the player is considered “old”. At 30, Martinez was already considered such and one reason the fans didn’t want anything to do with him at his asking price. The way I see it, if he wants that long-term, close-to-$30 million per year, it gives him the incentive to play three years at peak-level and opt-out after the third year to go chase that contract. Furthermore, the contract isn’t unreasonably front-loaded. Martinez will earn $23.75 million in his first 3 years and $19.35 million in years 4 and 5, should he decide to stay.
Short-term contracts mitigate risk
Since his breakout in 2015, Martinez has averaged 132 games and 496 at bats due to a 2016 elbow injury and a 2017 foot injury. Knowing that, many are quick to label Martinez as “injury prone”, but I consider those injuries to be freak occurrences. It would be more worrisome if he had to miss games throughout the season due to a reoccurring injury (e.g. Dustin Pedroia).
However, the risk is still there. If the team were to sign him to a 7 year deal, then they test a possible injury prone player being a mainstay until he is 37. For now, they have him – at most – until he is 35.
Early opt-out clauses offer incentive to perform
Assuming the dude wants to get paid that $30 million per year, he has all the incentive he needs to perform at a high level for 3 years to earn that long-term, expensive, and final contract. The “career contract”.
It’s worth noting, as well, that the next 3 free agent off-season markets will be filled with so many studs making record contracts, that $30 million per year will look like chump change. So, not only does this contract allow him to go out and get the big contract, it also allows the Red Sox to offload a 34-to-35 year old player and retain about $20-to-40 million if he opts-out in years 4 or 5.
Everybody loves a win-win.
Trust, but verify
As a Red Sox fan myself, I have been cautious to say I’m thrilled the Sox signed Martinez to a big contract. I get lost in the fact that:
- He is the second-highest paid player on a team where the highest-paid player hasn’t panned out and seems to live vicariously through Twitter and his dog, Astro.
- The team’s two other $20 million-plus contracts come from guys (Hanley Ramirez and Rick Porcello) who had incredible 2016 seasons, but terrible 2015 and 2017 seasons.
- The only reason 2016 was so great for the entire team was because everyone’s stats were directly inflated by the tremendous performance of Papi in his final year, or indirectly inflated by the leadership and character that David Ortiz brought to this team.
- The team has no promise of that intangible, that is leadership and character, coming from any of the young guys.
- Dustin Pedroia may not have a knee come July.
All I can say for sure is that with each Opening Day brings new faces and new hope to the team its city loves. They finally have that new face and they’ve addressed their biggest need, a power bat.
I leave you with this – the most exciting feat in baseball, in my opinion: The most recent player to hit four home runs in a single game is J.D. Martinez, your newest member of the 2018 Boston Red Sox.
Move over, Pedey. There’s a New Laser show in town.
Pat Lotane
@pat_fromthecape
