Matt Kemp and Joc Pederson Platoon Similar and Famous if not Good
The Dodgers have broken camp for spring training with largely the same roster as a year ago, which is a good thing considering that roster came just one win shy of a World Series title. Given the minimal roster turnover this offseason, most of the Dodgers appear know their 2018 role as we move closer to Opening Day, except the Dodgers left fielder is still undetermined. While the Dodgers are fairly certain that when the season starts Chris Taylor will be in center and Yasiel Puig will be in right, there are a handful of candidates to occupy the final spot in the outfield, chief among them being offseason acquisition Matt Kemp and the incumbent from last season in Joc Pederson, with 2017 contributors Andrew Toles, Trayce Thompson, and Alex Verdugo also vying for playing time. But to keep things simpler we’ll just look at the two top contenders, Kemp and Pederson. The Dodgers are going to be World Series contenders again this year, and to keep up with the other NL juggernauts, they are going to need production from every position, making this decision in left field an important one for the team’s 2018 season.
Surface Level Stats
When looking at the basic stats for Matt Kemp and Joc Pederson, you might wonder why there is any debate at all over who should get the starting job. Kemp hit .276 last season for the Braves while hitting 18 home runs with 64 RBI’s. While those may not be jaw-dropping numbers, they’re a lot better than what Pederson posted in 2017. Joc hit just .212 with 11 home runs and 35 RBI’s. When looking at those stats, there is no completion. Kemp produced like a solid middle of the lineup bat and Pederson barely looks like he can hit the ball at all. There is a reason that the Dodgers are considering Pederson for the job over Kemp, but to understand it we need to look a little deeper than their batting averages.
Joc Pederson is Matt Kemp with More Walks
In our modern analytical age of baseball, we know that batting average is not the best representation of a hitter’s value at the plate. By digging deeper into Kemp and Pederson’s hitter profiles we begin to see that, in some respects, these two hitters had very similar years in 2017. Take a look at the table below of the hard-hit ball ratios for each hitter.
| Joc Pederson | Matt Kemp | |
| Soft Contact % | 19.4% | 17.4% |
| Medium Contact % | 47.6% | 47.9% |
| Hard Contact % | 33% | 34% |
You can see that they basically made the same quality of contact in 2017, with no more than a two percent difference in any type of contact. But it doesn’t matter how hard you hit the ball if you’re just slamming groundballs into the home plate dirt all the time. Maybe Joc was hitting too many hard groundballs. Let’s take a look.
| Joc Pederson | Matt Kemp | |
| Ground Ball % | 46.6 % | 48.5% |
| Line Drive % | 18.9 % | 23.2 % |
| Fly Ball % | 34.5 % | 28.2 % |
Nope, in fact, Kemp hit slightly more groundballs than Pederson, but the difference is just two percent. Both Kemp and Pederson hit a bunch of ground balls, and that’s one of the reasons that they are both fighting so hard for a roster spot this spring rather than dating Rihanna or making room on the mantle for their first Home Run Derby trophy. We do see a difference in their line drive and fly ball rates, as Kemp seems to be a line drive hitter and Joc a fly ball hitter, but they are both hitting almost half the balls they put in play on the ground.
While Kemp and Pederson both hit the ball with about the same quality, most often into the ground, Pederson stands out from Kemp in his ability to get on base. Kemp and Pederson both strikeout at the same rate (too much) 21.2 and 21.1% respectively, however, Kemps walk rate is absolutely abysmal at 5.8%, a number that is dwarfed by Pederson’s 12.1%. That crazy number means that Joc Pederson walks in more than 12% of his plate appearances, producing a much higher OBP than Kemp:.331 compared to Kemp’s .318. While Pederson’s batting average is much lower than Kemp’s, he’s actually getting on base and avoiding outs at the plate more frequently.
Who Should the Dodgers Choose?
Contrary to what the basic hitting statistics say about the two outfielders, Pederson is the better option for the Dodgers in left field this season. While neither player is a particularly good defender, Kemp has been really bad, posting a -9 UZR in 2017, a stat which combines the runs gained or lost by players throwing arm, range, and errors. While Pederson’s -5 UZR is definitely nothing to write home about, having Kemp playing defense in the outfield instead of Pederson would be significantly worse for the Dodgers.
Kemp and Pederson’s hitter profiles were remarkably similar last year, meaning that the two outfielders were likely equally valuable at the plate last year. The difference in the two hitters batting average and home run totals will likely move closer together this season as Pederson seemed to hit slightly better than his .212 average and Kemp slightly worse than his .276. Kemp and Pederson both make the same type and quality of contact and so seem to have similar value at the plate. The key difference between the two hitters is Pederson’s vastly superior walk rate and OBP. Pederson simply gets on base more often than Kemp does and is a better pick for the Dodgers for that reason. Pederson is a better fielder than Kemp (though neither are particularly good). He also is much better at getting on base and seems to be a slightly better hitter than simple hitting statistics give him credit for.
How about a Platoon?
When you have two meddling outfielders, sometimes you can take the best traits from one and pair those qualities with the best traits from the other to get great production. Pederson is not exactly the yin to Kemp’s yang, but the two do swing from opposite sides of the plate. That’s really only helpful if there’s a platoon advantage to be had. Fortunately for the Dodgers, we can squint and see an above average platoon.
Even in his troubling 2017, Pederson was an above average hitter against righties. He posted a 105 OPS+ against the righties. Kemp sported reverse splits in 2017 by hitting better against same-handed foes, but he has historically clocked in about 20% better against lefties than righties. The split in 2016 was dramatic: 154 OPS+ against lefties and a 104 OPS+ against righties.
Growing Joc Pederson
The best case for Pederson though is his age. Pederson is just 25 years old and has shown flashes of brilliance at points in his career, most recently in his World Series heroics. At 33, Kemp’s career is on the decline, and there is no reason to think that he won’t continue to regress in 2018. Simply put, Pederson and Kemp were similar players in 2017, but while Kemp is expected to regress even further, Pederson still has the promise of a young player with a load of talent.
For the Dodgers, taking a chance on a young player like Pederson should be more appealing than getting similar production from an aging Matt Kemp. However, that only holds true if Pederson finally begins to produce at his talent level. One way to do that is to rest him against lefties. While the Dodgers did that a bit last year (14% of his games started were against lefties, rather than 28% that the team faced), but a fresh year could yield better results. Only time will tell if 2018 will finally be Pederson’s year, or if the Dodgers will give him a chance to make it his year.
-Isaac Gamboa
