An Alternate Universe Where the Miami Marlins Tried
Join me, won’t you? Step with me into the TARDIS (Time and Relative Dimension in Spaceship, for the uninitiated) and come with me to a parallel universe. One that’s exactly the same as our earth in every way except for one very specific thing- in this parallel world, instead of purchasing the Miami Marlins leveraged up to their eyeballs and under a mountain of debt, the Bruce Sherman/ Derek Jeter ownership group came into Miami determined to build a winner right away and committed to wiping away the sorry David Samson / Jefferey Loria years from the collective South Florida consciousness. If the Marlins offseason went from fire sale to contender creation, how might the team look today? What would be the outcome of this alternate Marlins offseason? Let’s take a look.
Keep Christian Yelich, Dee Gordon, Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna
Obviously, a Marlins team interested in competing wouldn’t have dumped Yelich, Gordon, Ozuna, and the reigning NL MVP over salary concerns. Among Yelich, Ozuna, and Stanton, the Marlins had, and our counterfactual 2018 team has, perhaps the best outfield in baseball.
Stanton is a home run hitting monster, who led the league in bombs and had 1.007 OPS en route to his MVP award. Ozuna hit .312 last season and hit 32 out himself, posting a .924 OPS, which is quite good for a second fiddle. Yelich is a bit of a different monster, sporting a more well-rounded game, but the center fielder was 4th on the team with an .807 OPS and scored 100 runs.
Gordon, for his part, stole 60 bases in 2017 and hit .308.
Just by keeping these four instead of dumping them, the alt-Marlins are in decent shape. But the 2017 team still lost 85 games, so we need more work to get this team to title contender status.
Trade for Manny Machado
Please keep in mind that the only difference between this alt-Marlins scenario and the actual 2017 season is the Marlins; everything else is the same and that includes a pretty crappy winter for Baltimore Orioles fans. Baltimore’s big signing of the winter was Andrew Cashner and most of their time was spent trying to find a deal for perennial All-Star Manny Machado, who is about to enter his final year before free agency.
Machado, you might know, is a South Florida native and wore ‘Mr. Miami’ on the back of his player’s weekend jersey, so the Marlins actually make some sense for him. Sure, having Stanton and Machado on the same team might be costly long-term even for our alt-Marlins, but Machado is still reasonable in 2018 so that’s a later problem. Plus, a year in Miami with some home cooking and winning baseball and he might never want to leave.
Since this is a made-up universe, I’m not going to get into what exactly the fake Marlins could fake give up for Machado, but lets assume that Machado arrives in Miami without Jeter sacrificing too much of big league talent. For argument’s sake, pencil Machado in somewhere on the left side of the 2018 Marlins infield.
Augment via Free Agency
The Marlins are now looking pretty decent. The five non-Marlin alt-Marlins create a solid core. Add in Justin Bour at first base (.902 OPS, 25 bombs, .289 avg) and J.T. Realmuto (3.6 WAR) behind the plate, since they’re both real Marlins and alt-Marlins and things aren’t half bad. The Marlins need an infielder or two and a couple guys make sense. My favorites are Zach Cozart, fresh off an All-Star campaign with Reds who can play both short and third, and Eduardo Nunez, who can play any position in the infield well. Take one (or both) of them and add free agent third basemen Todd Frazier on a short term deal and we’re in business. This is a solid batting order:
- Dee Gordon, 2b
- Manny Machado, ss
- Marcel Ozuna, lf
- Giancarlo Stanton, rf
- Justin Bour, 1b
- Christian Yelich, cf
- Todd Frazier/ Zach Cozart, 3b
- J.T. Realmuto, c
Add in the depth/versatility of Martin Prado and maybe a veteran like Carlos Gonzalez, who can take a bulk of the pinch hit at bats and you have to be feeling good. We’re looking at ~$81M in player expenditures plus whatever it takes to augment via free agency. In the real-world, Todd Frazier signed for $8M in 2018, Zach Cozart got $12.66M, and Carlos Gonzalez is still unsigned, so we can call it a ~$102M lineup. That’s expensive, but it’s great and the alt-Marlins are looking great.
Until you get to the pitching. The Marlins pitching is abominable. This is where the hyper-competitive Jeter is going to have to work some magic.
Sign Jake Arrieta
Would I prefer Yu Darvish? Yeah, probably but even the alt-Jeter/Sherman group isn’t made of money and they’ll need some reserve to work out a long-term deal with Machado so let’s pass on the $100M+ Darvish and go with the more bargain option in Arrieta.
Jake isn’t what he was at the peak of his powers, but he’s not too far removed from a Cy Young and can dominate for stretches. He’s the Ace the team builds around for the next few years.
Sign Michael Pineda or Alex Cobb
Either will do. Neither can really be relied upon to make a big difference in the long run, but both are capable. Pineda has a world of potential but will probably never reach it. Cobb is more likely to be an above average MLB starter but will likely cost more money. Both would help the team.
Sign Lance Lynn
Lynn is exactly the type of pitcher the alt-Marlins need: a lot of innings, a league average to slightly better ERA, reliability.
Find some Relievers
There are a couple of decent options on the free agent market still-left for presumably a cheap deal like Robbie Ross and Huston Street, but the real Marlins had a decent bullpen in 2017 and figure to slide their current starters to a bullpen role with their revamped rotation.
The alt-Marlins starting rotation has come a long way:
If you take the Cobb version, that’s pretty good.
As we can now plainly see, all the real Marlins needed this offseason was willpower and dollars. This alt-Marlins team has a lineup that can go toe to toe with anybody and a rotation that will hold its own. Will it beat the Washington Nationals in 2018? Maybe, but it looks like the makings of at least a Wild Card team. The Marlins didn’t exactly have the highest payroll in the sport before all my tinkering, and if they find a way to ditch Martin Prado‘s and Wei Yin Chen’s salaries to free up even more room, everything outlined here is completely possible. This could be the Marlins. Unfortunately, it isn’t and fans in Miami are going to have to suffer through some dreadful baseball. It simply didn’t have to be that way.
-Max Frankel
