Is Xander Bogaerts Ready Yet?
Like all teams, the Boston Red Sox have a number of questions about their roster that are still being figured out in the season’s first weeks. How will David Price’s elbow hold up? Can Jackie Bradley Jr. actually hit major-league pitching? And what in the name of John Farrell is going on with the catcher situation? There are also questions surrounding their franchise shortstop, Xander Bogaerts, who’s been inconsistent and something of a disappointment since debuting in 2013.
The highly-touted prospect arrived just in time to help Boston win the World Series that fall, playing a key role in the team’s championship run just weeks after turning 21. For the first time since Nomar Garciaparra was gracing Fenway’s infield, the Red Sox had a homegrown shortstop with a bright future. Big things were expected of him in 2014, and beyond.
It was surprising, then, when Bogaerts crashed and burned after getting off to a promising start at the plate. He simply disappeared for a three-month stretch in the middle of the 2014 season, hitting .147/.193/.212 with a 64:12 K/BB ratio from June 4th through August 30th. His struggles followed him out onto the field, where he looked uncomfortable at short before sliding over to third to accommodate Stephen Drew. He was tepid on the bases, attempting just five steals. A preseason favorite to win Rookie of the Year, Bogaerts didn’t receive a single vote and barely rated above replacement level.
While his rookie season was a letdown, he improved considerably in 2015. His average jumped 80 points to .320 as he cut down on his strikeouts, slashing his whiff rate from 23.2 percent to 15.4 percent. He was more aggressive on the basepaths, swiping 10 bags in 12 tries. And with Drew finally out of the picture, he came into his own at shortstop, grading out as an above-average defender. He walked less and managed only seven home runs, but overall it was a step in the right direction.
Bogaerts was a significantly different player the following year, but not significantly better per WAR. He tripled his home run total to 21 and substantially improved his walk rate, albeit at the expense of striking out more and seeing his average fall to .294. He also faded badly after batting close to .360 through Boston’s first 62 games of the season, slumping to .251/.324/.392 over the team’s final 100 games and managed just three singles as the Red Sox were swept in the ALDS.
Last year was essentially a continuation of those 2016 trends but with less the power, as it took Bogaerts 42 games to launch his first home run. As a consequence, the Red Sox were last in baseball in home runs and went out of their way to get a real slugger this winter. His walk rate and strikeout rate both increased again. His average dropped again to .273, and he was nowhere to be found in October. He also endured another miserable second half, batting .225/.313/.331 from June 25th onward. His struggles were largely caused by a pitch that hit him on the hand on July 6th, which he opted to play through to unknown detriment.
That brings us to 2018, which feels like a pivotal year for Bogaerts. He’s 25 now, and in his sixth major-league season. He was supposed to be a superstar already, and although he has the tools, he’s not quite there yet, having been named to just one All-Star team and never receiving an MVP vote. He’s been very good, even great at times, but never for an entire season. One gets the sense that he hasn’t peaked yet, that he can still get better.
Maybe this will be the year Bogaerts finally puts it all together. If you think so, SBG Global sportsbook would be a good place to capitalize on it. He’s healthy and off to another great start, smoking the ball all over the field. We’ve seen this movie before, but maybe this time it ends differently. It’s a long year and Bogaerts could finally be ready to take the next step.
-Tyler Maher
