Matt Harvey’s Trade Value over the Years
In the summer of 2011, I landed an internship of sorts with a general contractor in Knoxville, TN. The job was a good one, if a bit of a curious fit in retrospect. In the post-GFC economy, I was often reminded that jobs were tough to come by, especially in the construction field, which seemed like the perfect thing for a college kid looking for some extra cash.
I landed the gig mostly because of my now ex-girlfriend’s dad’s connections. An architect in Knoxville, he sent out an email to his friends, and lo and behold, Hickory Construction, likely optimistic that a favor for a kid would lead to more work from the architect, offered me a job paying $10/hour. At the end of a long summer spent sometimes in ditches, sometimes atop concrete walls, but always in jeans, I felt the need to spend a few of my new dollars on a gift of gratitude for my benefactor. He was a baseball fan – a Mets fan specifically (maybe the only one in Knoxville?) – and had a bit of a man cave with various signed baseballs for decor.
With the $130 going-rate for David Wright signatures just out of my price range, I decided a prospect signature was more in my budget. Matt Harvey was that prospect. The recipient really didn’t know Harvey, but the gift was thoughtful and with any luck, it would turn out to be prescient. Fast forward 7 years and Harvey has seen his star supernova – explode into brilliance and then fade almost completely away.
I often think back to that baseball when considering Harvey’s career. The rubric of “How does my ex-girlfriend’s dad value a gift that I gave him 7 years ago” may be opaque to you, but it’s an interesting filter when considering how the Mets have played their Matt Harvey hand.
Here’s a look at what the Mets may have gotten in a fake Harvey deal at various points in his career. We should note that this is salient because the Mets will likely be trading him sometime this week. We’ll pick up the strand after Harvey makes his Major League debut.
End of 2012: Matt Harvey traded to the Blue Jays for Noah Syndergaard and Daniel Norris
Harvey entered 2012 as Baseball Prospectus’ number 25 prospect. He wound up making his Major League debut midseason and ran a 2.73 ERA in 10 starts. In this scenario, the Mets strike a deal swapping one young starter for another two. The Blue Jays were obviously willing to part with Syndergaard (as evidenced by the real-life swap that netted RA Dickey from the Mets), but including Daniel Norris in the deal could have wrestled the young Harvey from the Mets.
Trades here are really based on prospect rankings and team needs heading into 2013. The Mets may have been able to swap with the Diamondbacks for Trevor Bauer or Tyler Skaggs, or sent Harvey to the Orioles for Jonathan Schoop. If you prefer an MLB-ready mix, I suppose the Mets could have tried to get A.J. Pollock, or another young MLB outfielder.
End of 2013: Matt Harvey traded to the Cleveland Indians for Corey Kluber and Clint Frazier
In 2013, Harvey was King of New York. He put together an All-Star campaign, finishing 4th in the Cy Young voting at just 24 years old. He had the makings of the next big thing. To help us better contextualize Harvey at this point, we have Dave Cameron’s early 2014 Trade Value column, which ranked Harvey as the 25th most valuable player in baseball. The point of the Trade Value column is that those ranked behind the guy would be ostensibly be traded for him. The names behind him on this list are fun: Kris Bryant, Stephen Strasburg, Corey Kluber, and Chris Archer.
I have the Mets swapping for a deal centered on Kluber here because they really wouldn’t have had a need at third base heading into 2014. David Wright was himself one of baseball’s most valuable pieces. The Indians also have to part with outfield prospect Clint Frazier in this deal because Corey Kluber was not the Cy Young award winner we now think of. At that point, Kluber was coming off a 147 inning season, his first real, full year, with a career best 3.85 ERA.
Allow that to sink in. The Mets likely could have swapped Harvey for Kluber. It’s a fun exercise in recognizing the different career paths of pitchers. Kluber’s 2014-2017 seasons have amounted to 21.1 more WAR, plus the Mets would still have Kluber’s 2018 season.
End of 2014: Matt Harvey traded to the Baltimore Orioles for Manny Machado and Chance Sisco
Harvey is ranked in the Top 20 of Cameron’s updated Trade Value piece. Keep in mind that he’s a great talent coming off of Tommy John surgery. Pitchers come back from this all the time and there have been few grumbles of anything out of the ordinary in Harvey’s return.
Maybe you disagree with Cameron’s placement of Harvey in the above linked piece, but Machado as ranked in the 40s in terms of trade value as he had just suffered the second major knee injury of his young career and has never posted an OBP above .324 over the course of a full season. He’s still just 21 so the Orioles probably wouldn’t ship him out for a pitcher coming of TJS, but the deal wouldn’t have been the landslide that it appears to be today.
End of 2015: Matt Harvey traded to the Texas Rangers for Nomar Mazara
Matt Harvey has just thrown 190 regular season innings and 26.2 more in carrying the Mets rotation in the postseason. He has a career 2.53 ERA in 450 major league innings and looks no worse post-surgery. He just threw 8 shutout innings in the World Series before giving up a couple in the 9th in what would ultimately be the game that crowned the Royals the champions.
Harvey has 3 years of contractual control left. Because of that, he’s no longer one of the game’s best deals, but a deal similar to the David Price to the Tigers swap at the deadline in 2014 makes sense. Where Price was the better pitcher with the longer track record, Harvey has another year of control. David Price netted the Rays a prospect ranked around number 50 (Willy Adames), a young pitcher with significant upside and 3.5 years of control left (Drew Smyly), and a utility infielder (Nick Franklin). I entertained a swap with the Mariners centered around James Paxton and Alex Jackson, but I don’t think that would quite be enough to get pry Harvey from the Mets.
So we land in Texas. The Rangers made a midseason deal for Cole Hamels in 2015, but likely could have used another “reliable” starter in 2016, when their rotation finished 22nd in the Majors by WAR. Mazara may not have fit neatly into the Mets 2016 outfield with Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto, and Curtis Granderson, but Harvey was expendable on a roster with 6 or 7 other viable starters.
End of 2016: Matt Harvey traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Kevin Newman and Ke’Bryan Hayes
Harvey is no longer the player that he once was, but he still has tremendous upside, worthy of a pair of top-100 prospects. The 2017 edition of the Pirates could have used Harvey and he would have been a great fit, considering their history of turning talented pitchers around. Really, Max Frankel nailed it here two years ago when he outlined the 29 teams that would be a great fit for Harvey.
The upside is that the Mets get two top 100 prospects, each with the potential to help the Big League club shortly.
End of 2017: Matt Harvey traded to the San Diego Padres for Josh Naylor
The Padres have a wildly deep farm system and a Major League club that has an opening for a guy like Harvey. Apparently, the Rangers and the Orioles both showed interest this past offseason, but I already covered packages for those teams in 2014 and 2015. A swap of the Padres’ number 14 prospect for the pre-2018 version of Matt Harvey may have been a little steep, but the Padres likely would have done it. It’s a fun roll of the dice for AJ Preller.
Now…
The Mets misplayed their Matt Harvey hand. They know it. Everyone knows it. This exercise reveals just how badly their chosen strategy has played out. There’s no Corey Kluber or Manny Machado in Queens. Kris Bryant and Nomar Mazara aren’t there either. Instead, the Mets will have the ghost of Harvey; the bad taste of an unhealthy relationship gone sour remains. The Mets may still get something for Harvey, but payroll relief is hardly the best way that this could have turned out. It’s not as if this were a one time mistake. The Mets’ current Harvey situation is the result of years of mismanagement and squandered opportunity.
-Sean Morash
