Friday Afternoon Water Cooler: Gleyber or Ozzie?
Baseball is blessed to have (at least) two amazing young stars making headway this year in a way that we haven’t seen since Mike Trout and Bryce Harper. On the one side, you’ve got the Braves’ Ozzie Albies, who at the tender age of 21-137d, is 2nd in the majors with 14 HR, but is first in runs scored, and total bases. On the other side, there is the Yankees’ Gleyber Torres, who at the tender age of 21-162 days, is rocking an OPS of .998 through the first 27 games of his major league career. Max (Yankees fan) and Sean (Braves fan) swapped some emails today trying to decide who they would rather have to start a franchise today.
Max: It’s a great question and it’s great that baseball is in a place where we can discuss two amazing young infielders like this. To answer your question, I will be taking Gleyber Torres and I didn’t have to think that hard.
Torres has a much better minor league track record, has been a highly touted prospect since day 1, is capable of playing second, third, and short at the major league level and is a better defender at second, and still has his rookie eligibility. I’m team Gleyber, prove me wrong.
Sean: I think citing a guy’s longer history as a prospect is silly. In 2016 Albies was a top-30 prospect. In 2017, Albies was the number 11 prospect. Sure – Torres was ranked marginally higher on those lists (Appearing 1 spot higher in 2016, and 8 spots higher in 2017). Furthermore, the versatility is a null argument as well. Ozzie was a (good) minor league shortstop, but moved to second out of deference to Dansby Swanson. Scouts thought they were roughly equivalent as shortstops.
They’re really similar players, so give me Ozzie because of his longer MLB performance. He’s been really good over almost 500 plate appearances, while Gleyber has been really good over only 100. Pitchers will adjust, and we don’t know how Gleyber will react. We know Ozzie can adjust. We also know (thanks to Statcast) that Albies is roughly 1 mph faster. Give me less risk and more speed all day.
Max: You see, the Braves tend to have top prospects in sets of two- with one of the two end up significantly better than the other. Andrelton Simmons was better than Jose Peraza and Ronald Acuna is better than Ozzie Albies. Basically, Albies = Peraza. Sorry! I like Albies, I think he’s a fine player but there are some red flags. While he’s currently tearing things up in the traditional stats, advanced metrics paint a different story. Albies is 123rd in the MLB in exit velocity, 101st in hard-hit percentage, and those 14 homers haven’t gone very far, just 391 feet on average, good for 102nd in baseball. Albies is great, and very hot, but I don’t think he’s the slugger we’ve seen to start this season- a season that’s been a total anomaly in terms of power numbers when compared to the rest of his pro career.
Torres, on the other hand is a ballplayer. You know how some guys are just ballplayers and you look at them and you go, ‘that guy right there is a ballplayer?’ That’s Gleyber Torres. Always has been. A great story that I heard recently was that the Yankees really wanted Torres out of Venezuela when he was signing back in the day but the Cubs beat them to it. The scout that saw him was super disappointed and so was GM Brian Cashman. The two of them kept tabs on Torres for years after that and when Cashman made the trade to acquire him from the Cubs, he called the scout and said basically ‘we got him, we finally got Gleyber.’
You know why the Yankees brass was so high on Torres? Because he’s a ballplayer. He hits homers. 412 feet on average, no less. (Also, a lot of this exit velo, launch angle, etc advanced stuff is awfully similar for these two guys.)
Sean: First, don’t lecture me on Braves prospects. Jose Peraza was worse than Ozzie Albies, that’s why they traded Peraza. The better comp is the Jason Heyward / Freddie Freeman pair. Both of those guys have turned out to be just fine, so I’m not worried about one of Acuna / Albies turning into a turnip.Your argument that Albies’ power surge is suspect is fair. I’m not going to contend that the guy is a sure-fire 45 HR/year guy as his current pace indicates. However, that he can do this for any stretch of time shows that the sky is the ceiling with him. He was a top prospect with scouts thinking he was just a contact + defense + speed middle infielder. Sprinkle some power on top of that and we’re talking about an MVP caliber guy. Might I present to you this poll from MLB (which actually has not been photoshopped in any way)?
He’s kinda the unanimous MVP… @albiesozzie97 pic.twitter.com/YIj1hzgSqr
— Sean Morash (@OTBB_Sean) May 17, 2018
Where on there is your “ballplayer”? Am I supposed to believe that just because some scout in the Yankees system wanted Gleyber that he has some sort of ultimate Highlander powers? I’m one step removed from full Monty Python: “Strange women lying in ponds distributing swords is no basis for a system of government. Supreme executive power derives from a mandate from the masses, not from some farcical aquatic ceremony. You can’t expect to wield supreme executive power just ’cause some watery tart threw a sword at you!” The same goes for picking between Gleyber and Ozzie; we can’t rely on some unnamed reconnoiter who had a certain preference for a 16-year-old Venezuelan.
Max: Cool. Albies can be Jason Heyward. Enjoy 3 years of him being good before he turns into a .210 hitting pumpkin for no reason at all 🙂
Also, the NY Times article I found that references the story I told does not name the scout, so you’ll have to trust me on this one, but it’s true.
I don’t like how much time I’ve spent denigrating Albies, a great player, and instead, I would like to spend some time talking about how great Torres is. You mentioned that Albies has a bigger MLB sample to draw from and so you were more convinced that he’s the real deal. The sample things are true but there’s some stuff about Torres that really jumps out. Torres is hitting .323 and he leads the Yankees with 8 homers in May, he’s legitimately tearing the cover off the ball, but he’s not doing it by sitting fastball and ignoring the breaking pitches that are likely much better than any other he’s seen. No, per Frangraphs and Brooks Baseball, Torres ” is annihilating sinkers, hitting .522 and slugging 1.217 with five homers on the 23 he’s put into play. He’s also hitting .308 and slugging .528 on the 39 breaking pitches he’s put into play, hinting at his strong pitch-recognition skills.”
He currently leads the Yankees in wRC+, two points ahead of Aaron ‘Freaking’ Judge.
Another stat in existence is WAR. Torres currently sports a 1.6 WAR, thanks in part to a .5 dWAR, per BRef. Albies, on the other hand, despite playing 48 games to Torres’ 27, has a 1.7 WAR, dragged a bit by his -.1 dWAR.
Sure, parsing WAR to the tenth of a point is not best practice at all, but it’s notable that Torres has essentially caught up despite about 45% fewer games.
Sean: This is fun. Torres is great, but those defensive metrics seem silly. I’d like to put on my scouting hat and say that Albies passes the eye test, but that’s little better than the unnamed reconnoiter’s opinion. Instead, I’ll cite Albies’ above average range. He’s above average in Range Factor and UZR. I hypothesize that the advanced metrics don’t like Albies because he hasn’t made enough highlight plays relative to his speed, which seems unfair.
You know what’s so fun about this? Let’s say we had this conversation last week. I don’t think you’re nearly as adamant that Torres is a higher being. He’s feasted on Rangers pitching. Albies has yet to face Rangers’ pitching! He’s actually feasted against Cubs pitching, which is clearly a superior staff.
Also – Albies is a switch hitter and those are awesome. But I think my trump card is that Ozzie Albies has two (2) cool names. Gleyber Torres only has one.
Max: Like a good Gleyber, Torres is there. Need I say more?
You might be right about Torres’ stock rising as a result of the last three games, but he didn’t hit all 8 of those May bombs in Texas. He’s been an awesome presence at the very bottom of the Yankees’ lineup and and I hope he stays there for the rest of the season. The Yankees already have one of the best orders in baseball but with Torres slugging from the 9 spot, they are about as long as anybody on offense too. I’m not sure if he’ll be better than Albies long term, though I think he will be, but there’s no one I’d rather have there right now.
One other thing that shouldn’t be overlooked is Torres defensive position long term. While it seems like Miguel Andujar is the real deal, it’s not certain yet and the Yankees have the luxury of moving Torres there if need be or even moving Didi Gregorius over to third and Torres to short as Didi ages if he keeps hitting like this.
Basically, Gleyber is the perfect player for the Yankees right now. I love it.
Sean: Woah Woah – Let’s not turn this into a “how do we use the 21-year-old star” conversation. We’re supposed to be picking one to start a team with to have for the next decade. I’m picking Ozzie and you’re picking Gleyber. Enjoy.
Max: The Athletic just published a ‘here’s how great Gleyber is’ article by Katie Sharp. Go read it.
Sean: I’d much rather watch Ozzie Albies homerun videos….
