Roster of the Month: #1 Draft Picks
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The MLB Draft is coming up next week, just as it does every year in early June. Casey Mize, the RHP from Auburn University, is the likely top pick. He’ll join 53 other ballplayers with that distinction. But the #1 picks of the past haven’t always turned out as planned. Sure, there are stars like Bryce Harper and Carlos Correa, but there also busts like Mark Appel.
In anticipation of the draft, this version of the Roster of the Month celebrates the best #1 draft picks of all time. However, it’s important to note that “other types of amateur drafts” were once a thing. The January Secondary Draft, which ran from 1966-1986, is one such example. For the purposes of this roster, any #1 pick from any amateur draft is eligible. This is especially important when building our pitching staff, as the standard June draft has produced precious few decent pitchers…. An interesting note as the Tigers consider selecting Casey Mize first.
Without further ado…
Starting Lineup
A pair of Hall of Famers and quartet of active players fill out the starting lineup.
- C Joe Mauer (2001): The 2009 MVP and 3x batting champion is one of the greatest #1 picks ever. Only 6 catchers in history have a higher JAWS score than Mauer’s 46.9, and he probably belongs in the Hall of Fame someday. His .391 career OBP works well in the leadoff spot for this lineup.
- 3B Alex Rodriguez (1993): ARod’s 117.8 bWAR ranks 16th in baseball history, and well above any other #1 pick. Of course, you already know about the 696 HR, 3 MVPs, 3,115 H, etc.
- CF Ken Griffey Jr. (1987): How do 630 HR and 83.8 bWAR sound? What about 10 Gold Gloves, 7 Silver Sluggers, and the 1997 MVP? Good enough? Okay then. Griffey received 99.3% of the Hall of Fame vote in 2016, the closest anyone has ever gotten to unanimity.
- DH Chipper Jones (1990): Chipper’s 85.2 bWAR is the most any #1 pick ever accumulated for his drafting team. The 1999 MVP was elected to the Hall of Fame this past January.
- 1B Adrian Gonzalez (2000): Gonzalez was drafted by the Marlins, then traded to Texas and eventually his hometown Padres before becoming a star. He amassed a 130 OPS+ in 15 seasons and counting. His 66 DRS and 40.4 UZR are both third all-time for first basemen.
- LF Justin Upton (2005): Upton’s 32.7 bWAR is 11th among all #1 picks despite just being 30-years-old in 2018. He could pass three other top picks by season’s end.
- RF Darryl Strawberry (1980): Oh, what could have been! Strawberry was one of the best players in baseball during the 1980s. He was worth 40.3 bWAR with a 144 OPS+ through 1991, his age-29 season. However, he accumulated just 1.9 bWAR in his 30s as injuries and drug suspensions took their tolls.
- SS Carlos Correa (2012): Is it too early to anoint the Astros’ 23-year-old cornerstone as our starting shortstop? His 137 OPS+ and 18.9 bWAR through only 413 games suggest he’s already one of the best #1 picks ever.
- 2B Jeff King (1986): King was ok, I guess. He was pretty much an average player over 11 seasons. Second base is a problem for this team. Only the best five-tool athletes get picked first in the draft. Just about any infielder drafted at the top is able to stick at shortstop (or third base in Chipper Jones’ case). As such, King is really the only #1 pick ever that spent significant time at second base.
Bench
A few controversial decisions…
- OF Harold Baines (1977): Baines played 22 seasons in the major leagues- tied with ARod for the most of any #1 pick. His 1,565 games as a DH are the second most ever behind David Ortiz, and he compiled a career 121 OPS+.
- OF Josh Hamilton (1999): Hamilton never played for the Devil Rays, who drafted him. He battled addiction and left baseball in 2002, having never moved past AA. Improbably, he returned in 2006 and enjoyed 9 mostly good seasons. Winning the 2010 MVP was his career highlight.
- OF Bryce Harper (2010): Is Harper better than Upton or Strawberry? In a few years he almost certainly will be. He already collected an MVP award in 2015, and leads the NL in HR and walks in 2018. He could become the highest paid free agent in history this winter and he’s still just 25.
- UI Roy Smalley (1974-January Regular): This is our first non-standard draft selection. From 1978-83, Smalley slashed .270/.357/.430 with excellent glove work at shortstop.
- C/UI/OF: B. J. Surhoff (1985): Surhoff never quite hit like the Brewers intended when they drafted him, probably because they converted him from shortstop to catcher. He ultimately spent significant time at all four corner positions as well as behind the plate. Later in his career, his offense came around when the Orioles used him almost exclusively in left field.
Starting Rotation
Three present-day stars represent the best of all pitchers drafted #1. After them, there’s quite a dropoff.
- RHP Stephen Strasburg (2009): The hard-throwing Strasburg takes a back seat to Max Scherzer these days, but he’s a dominant pitcher in his own right. He’s 3rd all-time in K/9 (10.5, behind Chris Sale and Randy Johnson) as well as 4th in K/BB (4.54, behind Sale, Corey Kluber, and Tommy Bond).
- LHP David Price (2007): Price’s 34.6 bWAR is the most by any pitcher selected at the top of the draft. His best season was 2012, for which he took home the Cy Young award.
- RHP Gerrit Cole (2011): Cole has been resurgent in his first year with the Astros. He leads the AL in strikeouts with 109, and if he maintains his 39.4% K-rate, he will break Pedro Martinez‘ single-season record of 37.5% from 1999.
- RHP Andy Benes (1988): Benes enjoyed a 14-year career with 31.3 bWAR. That was the most of any #1 pitcher prior to Price. Doesn’t it feel like the 4th starter on this team should be better than this?
- RHP Tim Belcher (1983 and 1984-January Secondary): Belcher was drafted #1 twice- first in the June draft of 1983 and, after he failed to sign, again in the 1984 January Secondary draft. He threw 2442.2 IP over a 14-year career.
Bullpen
If your #1 draft pick ends up in the bullpen, something probably went wrong.
- RHP Matt Bush (2004): Pitching was plan B for Bush, who was drafted as a shortstop. He only hit .219/.294/.276 in the low minors and ended up in prison for a while. He made a comeback as a pitcher and now resides in the Rangers bullpen.
- LHP Mark Davis (1979-January Secondary): Davis spent 15 years in MLB, mostly as a reliever. He is one of only 9 relief pitchers to win a Cy Young award, collecting the honor in 1989.
- LHP Neal Heaton (1979-January Regular): What’s the difference between the January Secondary and January Regular draft? Who knows?! Heaton pitched in 382 major league games- 202 of them as a starter.
- RHP Luke Hochevar (2006): Hochevar was undeniably a bust as a starter, pitching to a ghastly 5.39 ERA. Then he moved to the bullpen and had three fine seasons with a 1.029 WHIP before injuries ended his career.
- LHP Bill Scherrer (1977-January Secondary): Scherrer pitched 228 unspectacular games in the majors. That’s really the end of the story.
- RHP Jeff Shaw (1986-January Regular): The final year of the January drafts produced Shaw, a successful closer. He compiled 203 saves and made two All-Star Teams.
-Daniel R. Epstein
