Tigers’ Michael Fulmer A Top Starting Pitcher Trade Target
It’s pretty clear that there are a lot of contenders or borderline contenders in the MLB this season who will be on the hunt for a starting pitcher this summer. The Yankees and the Angels should both have the addition of a starter at the very top of their to-do lists if they plan on playing deep into October. The Red Sox might want one, too. So might the Braves, Rockies, Dodgers, and Brewers depending on how things shake out over the next couple of months.
The problem is, there aren’t that many good starting pitchers that are going to be available. We’ve heard some buzz around Cole Hamels, but at this point in his career, Hamels isn’t the pitcher to carry a team in the playoffs. Noah Syndergaard‘s name has also been tossed around but it would be shocking if the Mets decided to change deviate from their plans enough to send Syndergaard away. He’s one of the game’s very best when healthy. Moreover, it would take a boat-load of top prospects to get Noah.
Another name that we might start hearing more and more as summer progresses is Michael Fulmer, the 25-year-old starter for the Detroit Tigers. Fulmer has struggled some this year, posting a 1.368 WHIP and 4.60 ERA over his first 60 innings this year but those numbers are a substantial departure from his performance over the first two years of his young career. In 2016, his rookie season, Fulmer was AL Rookie of the Year and finished 10th in the Cy Young balloting after pitching to a 3.06 ERA, 1.119 WHIP, a 5.3 WAR over 26 starts. Last season, he lead the AL in homers/9 and was again very effective, making the All-Star team, despite seeing slight increases in most of his rate stats.
Fulmer was clearly the best pitcher last season on an atrocious 64 win Tigers team and, even though the Tigers are a surprising 25-30 to start the season this year, they’re awful and the only thing that makes a last-place AL Central finish less likely is that the Royals and White Sox are possibly the worst teams in the sport.
Fulmer, at 25, can perhaps be excused a little bit for some performance slips in such a situation. In fact, Fulmer hasn’t even been as bad as his numbers look. 4 of his 11 starts have been pretty awful, but the other 7 have been pretty good/ great and he started the season with an 8 inning, 4 hit, 1 run performance. I’d be willing to wager that on a playoff contender, with a new pitching coach, and with some veteran leadership in the rotation, Fulmer could be a low to mid-3 ERA type pitcher. I’d also be willing to wager that there are some major league teams willing to make that bet. Wagers really are lovely.
Fulmer could be this year’s Sonny Gray– an uber-talented young pitcher with a good track record but some recent struggles who still has a few years of team control left. Last summer, the Yankees made an excellent trade for Gray to bolster their rotation for the rest of 2017 and help rebuild their staff in the longer term as well (that Gray hasn’t pitched all that well is kind of immaterial – it was still a good bet). A team like the Angels, that need someone to solidify things right now and need a top of the rotation arm to pair with Shohei Ohtani and hopefully Garrett Richards for the next few years, would be a great new home for Fulmer.
When trading Sonny Gray, the Athletics got James Kaprielian, a former 1st round pick who was hurt, but has a pretty good shot of being a mid-rotation big league starter. They also got Dustin Fowler, who is already a starting outfielder for Oakland, in return. That’s not bad and if the Tigers got a couple of good (but not outstanding) prospects close to big league ready for Fulmer, they should be pretty pleased.
I actually expect Fulmer to move this summer. He’s very clearly one of, if not the, best available starter and there are so many teams that need one. Hopefully, the Tigers can move their rebuild a step forward by getting a decent return.
-Max Frankel
