Brandon Nimmo: The “Other” Mets Outfielder
Before the start of this season, the average baseball fan would have to look pretty far down the New York Mets’ depth chart to find Brandon Nimmo’s name. However, the former 13th overall pick has come out of the gates red hot, hitting .276, 12 HR, 1.013 OPS, and 7 SB, earning him a well-deserved spot atop the Mets line-up and potentially an All-Star roster spot. Not only is he hitting for power, but he is getting on-base and running. He seems to have replaced Michael Conforto as the young Mets left-handed outfielder of the future. Nimmo’s ascension seems to have come out of nowhere, however, taking a closer look will reveal this breakout was kind-of, sort-of coming.
It’s no surprise to see him hitting the ball for average. Nimmo’s minor league career batting average is .280. However, this was not the case when it comes to hitting the ball with power. His career minor league SLG is .418, which is low compared to fellow Met outfielder Conforto’s .525 SLG. This season Nimmo has found his power to the tune of a .557 SLG and increased his OBP from .388 to .395, which is all the more impressive considering he is mainly hitting in the leadoff spot.
To gain perspective into why Nimmo is exploding this year, we need to take a look at some less traditional stats. Let’s start with his batted ball profile. During his first two years in the majors and most of his minor league career he hit the ball to all fields equally. But, a change in approach this season has led to more pulled balls, in fact, he is pulling the ball at a career-high rate of 43.0%, up from 32.5% and 30.2%. Below is a spray chart from Fangraphs of where he is hitting the ball.
This change in approach has paid dividends for the young left-hander. He is hitting the ball harder than ever while creating more lift, sporting a 40.7% hard-hit rate and a 42.1% flyball rate. The chart below from Fangraphs shows Nimmo’s career batted ball data. It easy to see how the combination of career highs in pulling the ball, hitting it in the air, and with some gusto has led to a career-high home run total and slugging percentage.
Nimmo isn’t the only young big leaguer trying some new things this season and is seemingly following the trend of Major League Baseball by changing his approach at the plate to create more lift and power. But he hasn’t quite sold out. With nearly the same about of plate appearances as the previous season, he has the same number of singles, two fewer doubles, four more triples, and seven more home runs all while maintaining the same K% (26.7%) and decreasing is BB% by 2%.
The only sign of regression is his .360 BABIP and 21.4% HR/FB rate, which correlates with batting average and home runs. Over the course of the season, we should expect to see his BABIP regress towards the league average of .300, in turn, lowering his BA as well as seeing his HR/FB regresses back towards his career mean of 16.7%, lowering the number of potential home runs. However, the numbers say he shouldn’t regress too much because he’s striking out at the same rate while now having the knack for finding the seats.
This hard work and dedication he put into working out the kinks in his swing have led to his breakout season. And nothing says, “Hello world!” more than the stellar night he had at Coors Field on June 18th, with a final line of four for six with two singles, two home runs (one inside the park), two runs, and four RBI. To make it more exciting, his family was able to make the short trip, about an hour and a half drive, down the I-25 to Coors Field from Nimmo’s hometown of Cheyenne, WY.
His at-bat in the 7th inning perfectly summed up the night and the season. In a 3-1 game at Coors (where two runs mean nothing), Nimmo took a 2-2 slider by lefty Harrison Musgrave to the deepest part of the field in dead center blasting his 12th home run of the year a whopping 449 feet. As he rounds the bases the only thing that seemed to be longer than the distance of the home run was his smile, beaming from ear to ear. He was home in the ballpark in grew up going to, his entire family in the crowd, providing a crucial (at the time) insurance run for his new family. The Mets went on to win the game 12-2 picking up a much-needed win for their ace, Jacob deGrom. It might have taken a casual fan a while to find Nimmo but now that he’s here, I don’t expect him to go anywhere. But we will see in the coming months and years whether or not the rest of the league figures him out or he is just living up to his pedigree.
– Brendan Cusack
