The All-Deserving 2018 All-Star Team
Let’s get straight to the point. The MLB All-Star Game rosters were just announced, and every single baseball fan disagrees with them. This isn’t really an indictment of the people making the selections; there’s just no way to make everyone happy. Furthermore, these aren’t even the final rosters because there will be injury substitutions.
Rather than just posting a list of snubs, here’s a full list of the 64 players who should’ve been All-Stars. This list follows the same rules as the actual All-Star Teams:
- 32-man rosters for each league
- 20 position players, 12 pitchers
- At least one player from each major league team
These rosters rely on advanced metrics more than traditional ones- primarily from Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs. (RBI and W are stupid, which is a topic for another day.) Actual All-Stars are in bold and “final vote” players are italicized.
Catchers
AL starter: Max Stassi (Houston) Reserves: Luke Maile (Toronto) and Wilson Ramos (Tampa Bay)
Baseball Prospectus does a great job incorporating pitch framing into their version of WAR, known as WARP. Despite limited playing time, expert pitch framing propels Stassi and Maile, even though the latter only makes the team because Toronto needs a representative. You can read more about why Ramos deserves to be an All-Star here.
NL starter: J.T. Realmuto (Miami) Reserves: Yasmani Grandal (Los Angeles), Buster Posey (San Francisco)
Realmuto and Posey are the no-brainer best catchers in baseball this year. It’s easy to understand why Grandal was left out. His MLB leading 10.6 FRAA show his true talent. Interestingly, the lowest FRAA among catchers in all of baseball is -11.5, which belongs to Willson Contreras– the real life All-Star starter.
First Basemen
AL: Matt Olson (Oakland)
This is a terrible year for AL first basemen. Olson is only 7th among MLB first basemen with 1.7 fWAR, but no one else in the league has more than 0.8. Yuck.
NL starter: Freddie Freeman (Atlanta) Reserves: Paul Goldschmidt (Arizona), Max Muncy (Los Angeles)
Freeman led all NL All-Stars in fan voting, and it’s easy to see why. He’s hitting .310/.401/.537. The BA and OBP lead all first basemen, and the SLG just trails Goldschmidt by a point. Muncy’s incredible breakout year includes a 175 wRC+ while splitting time between the two corner infield spots.
Second Basemen
AL starter: Jose Altuve (Houston) Reserves: Jed Lowrie (Oakland), Whit Merrifield (Kansas City)
Altuve, the reigning MVP, led all vote-getters in the American League at any position. Lowrie’s incredible 3.2 fWAR nearly matches his career high for a full season. Merrifield is undoubtedly a good player, but he only makes this team to give the Royals some representation.
NL starter: Ozzie Albies (Atlanta) Reserves: Javier Baez (Chicago), Ben Zobrist (Chicago)
Albies hit 16 career HR in the minor leagues, so of course he leads all MLB second basemen with 18 HR this season. Naturally, the Cubs have two deserving All-Stars that spend the majority of their time at the keystone. Baez spends a lot of time at short and Zobrist hangs out in the outfield.
Third Basemen
AL starter: Jose Ramirez (Cleveland) Reserves: Alex Bregman (Houston), Matt Chapman (Oakland)
Ramirez’ 5.7 fWAR is second in baseball behind only Mike Trout. Bregman rides a 154 wRC+ to the All-Star Game while Chapman deserves to go because of his outstanding defense and pretty good offense.
NL starter: Nolan Arenado (Colorado) Reserves: Anthony Rendon (Washington), Eugenio Suarez (Cincinnati)
At this point, there should be no doubt that Arenado is the NL’s best third baseman. Suarez is at least giving him a good run offensively, slashing .312/.402/.580. Rendon combines a 125 wRC+ with above average defense.
Shortstops
AL starter: Francisco Lindor (Cleveland) Reserves: Manny Machado (Baltimore), Andrelton Simmons (Los Angeles)
What a fantastic era this is for shortstops! Lindor and Simmons are among the best hitters in the game today and two of the best defensive shortstops of all time. It’s a shame there’s only one Gold Glove to give! Machado is off to a blistering start offensively, but his stellar defense at third base translates to mediocre results up the middle. Jean Segura might have a better case to make the team, but Baltimore needs a representative.
NL starter: Trea Turner (Washington) Reserve: Brandon Crawford (San Francisco)
Turner leads all NL shortstops in SB (22) and fWAR (3.2). Crawford’s 129 wRC+ make him the league’s best hitting shortstop.
Outfielders
AL starters: Mookie Betts (Boston), Aaron Judge (New York), Mike Trout (Los Angeles) Reserves: Shin-Soo Choo (Texas), Eddie Rosario (Minnesota)
Good job, voters! Trout, Betts, and Judge are indeed the three best AL outfielders, and they’ll start the real-life All-Star Game. No other outfielder is even within 1.2 fWAR of our starting trio. Rosario’s 139 wRC+ put him on our bench. Choo just edges out Andrew Benintendi so we have a rep from Texas.
NL starters: Lorenzo Cain (Milwaukee), Nick Markakis (Atlanta), Kyle Schwarber (Chicago) Reserves: Starling Marte (Pittsburgh), Brandon Nimmo (New York), David Peralta (Arizona)
Unlike the AL squad, the NL outfield barely resembles the real-life version. Cain’s outfield defense has been the best in the league by far. Markakis has enjoyed a career year to this point, while Schwarber’s 17 HR and surprisingly good defensive work earn him a spot on our team. Marte has 10 HR and 21 SB and Peralta is slugging .509. Nimmo’s 148 wRC+ is the best of any NL outfielder, and you can read more about him here.
Designated Hitters
AL starter: J.D. Martinez (Boston) Reserve: Shohei Ohtani (Los Angeles)
Martinez leads MLB with 27 HR. The All-Star Game just feels incomplete without Ohtani, who has been perhaps the biggest story in baseball this year. He won’t pitch again this season because of his elbow injury, but he’ll contribute as a hitter in the second half.
Starting Pitchers
AL starter: Chris Sale (Boston) Reserves: Trevor Bauer (Cleveland), Gerrit Cole (Houston), Corey Kluber (Cleveland), James Paxton (Seattle), Luis Severino (New York), Justin Verlander (Houston)
Sale’s 1.96 DRA and 176 strikeouts make him the clear choice to start. All seven of these Cy Young contenders have a WARP in the 3.8-4.7 range. Paxton is the only one who didn’t make the actual All-Star team. Just like in real life, the biggest snub is Tampa Bay’s Blake Snell. He’s undoubtedly excellent, but we’ll need the spot for the bullpen to make sure we have full representation.
NL starter: Max Scherzer (Washington) Reserves: Patrick Corbin (Arizona), Jacob deGrom (New York), Mike Foltynewicz (Atlanta), Zack Greinke (Arizona), Miles Mikolas (St. Louis), Aaron Nola (Philadelphia), Ross Stripling (Los Angeles)
Scherzer leads all of baseball in strikeouts (177), WARP (4.8), and overall awesomeness. He’d be a great choice to start in front of his home crowd in Washington. The rest of these starters include a plethora of great storylines: the up-and-comers Nola and Foltynewicz, the out-of-nowheres Mikolas and Stripling, and trade target deGrom.
Relief Pitchers
AL: Aroldis Chapman (New York), Edwin Diaz (Seattle), Joe Jimenez (Detroit), Ryan Pressly (Minnesota), Joakim Soria (Chicago)
Diaz leads all relievers with 1.8 WARP. While Chapman does his usual striking-out-everybody thing, Pressly has been a pleasant surprise for the Twins with a 1.70 DRA. Jimenez and Soria are good, but let’s face it, they’re really here to satisfy the representation rule. They’re also both likely to be traded before the end of July.
NL: Josh Hader (Milwaukee), Kenley Jansen (Los Angeles), Adam Ottavino (Colorado), Kirby Yates (San Diego)
You’ve probably heard about Hader by now, and how he’s striking out batters at a potentially record-setting pace. Ottavino didn’t make the actual All-Star team, but he’s been nearly as prolific as Hader. Jansen is a big name who’s living up to his high standards. Yates actually outperforms teammate Brad Hand by advanced metrics.
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That’s a wrap for our All-Deserving All-Stars. You’ll surely disagree with many of them. Feel free to do so on Twitter @depstein1983 and @OTB_Baseball
