Seller’s Guide to the Trade Market: Cincinnati Reds
Over the course of the next month, much will be made of potential additions that can reshape pennant races, and the shiny new toys that general managers will look to unwrap for their respective fanbases. However, what about the (many) teams stuck in the mire that is mediocrity? Leading up to the trade deadline, Off the Bench will be taking a look at the clubs in need of a rebuild, and analyze the wisest course of action for teams looking towards the future. We hit the Orioles last week, and they just traded Manny Machado, per our guidance. This week, we’ll be looking at a few Cincinnati Reds trades that could make sense.
Cincinnati Reds
(39-48, 5th NL Central)
It has been quite the strange season in the Queen City. Following a quiet offseason, Reds got off to a horrid start at 3-15, and the dismissal of manager Bryan Price and pitching coach Mack Jenkins. Price’s tenure has been marked by a slow and painful rebuild. Numerous stars have been sold off on the cheap, with Aroldis Chapman, Johnny Cueto, Jay Bruce, and Todd Frazier netting poor returns. This has kept the on-field product mediocre, coupled in part with ownership’s inability to spend money. However, the team has played .500 baseball over the past two months following Price’s dismissal, with several diamonds in the rough looking attractive to potential suitors. Scooter Gennett has enjoyed a late-career breakout for the Redlegs, pacing the NL with a .331 batting average in addition to a solid .898 OPS. On the mound, disgraced ex-Met Matt Harvey has begun to surge of late, and the team has received calls from several contenders. As for the rest of the squad, just about everyone outside of Joey Votto and Raisel Iglesias has looked expendable. Another factor to consider is whether the team decides to keep its core in place and go for a playoff berth in 2019. Based on the way they have played, it would hardly be a surprise if the Reds choose to stay relatively quiet at the deadline. It is up to young general manager Nick Krall to make savvy trades to bring the Reds back to contention.
- Raisel Iglesias
Most likely suitors: Astros, Red Sox, Nationals, Braves
Iglesias has been the target of trade speculation for a number of years now, mainly due to his ability to pitch multiple innings deep into games. However, his success this year may not be the best indicator of how good Iglesias has really been. The right-hander has pitched to a FIP of 4.06, despite an ERA of 2.63. Despite this, he figures to fetch Cincinnati a bevy of talented prospects. It remains to be seen if the Reds will actually be compelled to trade him; he remains under team control through 2020 at a reasonable $ 6 million a year. Needless to say, a haul which comes close to the level of Aroldis Chapman (Yankees->Cubs) or Andrew Miller in 2016 may be enough to get the Reds to part with their reliever. And it’s feasible this deadline that a contender is desperate enough.
Trade Prediction: Iglesias goes to Astros in exchange for 1B/OF Yordan Alvarez (#51 in Top 100), LHP Cionel Perez (#6 HOU) and RHP Corbin Martin (#9 HOU)
Houston General Manager Jeff Luhnow has built a reputation as one of the best in the game, in part because he isn’t afraid to pounce on a deal to improve the major league club. In Iglesias, the Astros can finally begin to match up with the fireballers in the Yankees ‘pen. Iglesias could take over for inconsistent closer Ken Giles, or he can serve up a similar role to that of Cleveland’s Andrew Miller, pitching in high leverage situations and multiple innings whenever called upon. The ability to shorten games will also come in handy to make sure that Houston’s star-studded rotation stays healthy and is ready for the playoffs.
At first glance, this looks like a hefty price to pay for a reliever. Alvarez has one of the smoothest swings in the Top 100, and looks to possess plenty of raw power. Perez is an efficient pitcher who is flexible enough to make an impact as both a starter and reliever. As for Martin, he was drafted in the second round last year, mainly due to a fastball that can reach 98, as well as a solid curveball that keeps hitters guessing. However, given the fact that Iglesias is controllable and the Reds don’t need to deal him now, the Astros may need to fork up additional prospect cache.
- Scooter Gennett
Most likely suitors: Red Sox, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Cardinals,
Perhaps no player in baseball has undergone a transformation like Gennett since coming to Cincinnati. The twenty-eight-year-old has compiled more Wins Above Replacement in the past two years than the four spent in Milwaukee, becoming an All Star player in the process. One criticism of Gennett’s game would be that his hot hitting doesn’t appear to be sustainable. His BABIP is second in the league at .379, meaning that he has benefitted from favorable positioning on his hits. However, it is not every year that the National League’s leading batter is for sale, let alone on a deal for under $6 million and with another year of control.
Trade Prediction: Gennett and RHP David Hernandez go to Boston for RHP Bryan Mata (#4 BOS), SS C.J. Chatham (#10 BOS), 1B Josh Ockimey (#11 BOS) and LHP Jalen Beeks (#15 BOS)
Much of the talk around the Red Sox centers around if President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski has enough prospect ammunition to keep pace with the Yankees and Astros. While he may lose out in a bidding war with the other two AL superteams, the Sox may luck out from a case of supply and demand. The other three teams listed are the only others in need of middle infield help. Arizona does not seem keen to block Ketel Marte for the next 16 months, Milwaukee should be more focused on starting pitching, and the Cardinals are not in desperate need to get rid of light-hitting Kolton Wong, who still offers up above average defense. That leaves Boston as a less-than-ideal match for the Reds. If anything, the Reds may not be inclined to trade their first time All Star in what appears to be a buyer’s market.
Gennett remains under team control through 2019, but it is very doubtful his value will ever be higher than it is now. In addition, the Reds manage to extract more young talent by including righty David Hernandez, who has pitched to a sub-2.00 ERA over the course of 31 innings this season. He can serve as a solid mid-relief option to counter the right-handed power hitters in the Bronx in the battle for the AL East. The Red Sox manage to muster up a decent offer from a relatively barren farm system. Mata has future rotation potential, as evidenced by his invitation to the MLB Futures Game, while Beeks has already made an appearance for Boston this season. Chatham is a decent contact hitter/fielding type, while Ockimey provides power from the first base position and a potential Joey Votto replacement down the line.
- Matt Harvey
Most likely suitors: Nationals, Mariners, Yankees, Diamondbacks
It appeared as if Matt Harvey’s career was on the verge of utter collapse. Starting the season for the New York Mets, Harvey started off the season pitching atrociously, with an ERA of 7.00 over eight games. However, the Dark Knight has returned to past form while in Cincy. As a Red, Harvey has gone 5 and 3 with an ERA of 3.64, accompanied by improved K/9 and BB/9 rates that come close to his last good season in 2015. Although he had a reputation for being an attention seeker while in the Big Apple, Harvey’s recent run of success has talent evaluators all over the league pondering whether the 29-year old can contribute to a pennant race. In a weakened starting pitching market, expect at least one team to be desperate enough to send a surprisingly solid haul to the Reds for Harvey.
Trade Prediction: Harvey goes to Washington in exchange for RHP Will Crowe (#7 WAS) and LHP Nick Raquet (#12 WAS)
For the Nationals, starting pitching depth is not often a need heading into the trade deadline. However, the team has suffered from injuries to key starters Stephen Strasburg and Jeremy Hellickson throughout the season, accompanied by subpar performances by everyone not named Max Scherzer. In order to right the ship, the team may be willing to give up some solid prospects. Now that the Nationals have Kelvin Herrera, the team should be able to shorten games and keep Harvey’s arm fresh. If all members of the rotation come back healthy, Harvey could even be used as a valuable multi-inning weapon out of the bullpen come October, if the Nationals can finally start clicking and play up to their potential.
The return for Cincinnati should center around pitching; only four of the team’s top fifteen prospects are hurlers. In righty Will Crowe, the Reds get a talented but somewhat limited athlete who can fill in at the four or five spot in the rotation down the line. Crowe has missed nearly two years starting in mid-2015 with Tommy John surgery. However, he has a smooth delivery that scouts believe will translate well for the big leagues. Raquet offers potential as a durable starter who pitches in the low-90’s. However, many execs believe that he could move quickly to the bigs in a bullpen role, since he has the capability to reach up to 96 MPH. For a team like the Reds to turn a lottery pick in Harvey into two solid prospects is nothing short of a boon, and should help the team greatly moving forward.
-Bryan Armetta
