The Yankees Won’t Trade Miguel Andújar, Despite his Flaws
Miguel Andújar is a popular guy. This past winter, the Pirates wanted him in return for Gerrit Cole. More recently, the Orioles requested him in a potential Manny Machado deal, as did the Padres in Brad Hand discussions. Each time, the Yankees declined. It appears Andújar is staying in the Bronx, no matter how shiny the return package might be.
It’s not hard to see why. Andújar is batting .289 with 12 home runs and 29 doubles, but the traditional batting stats don’t paint a complete picture. Let’s dig a little deeper to see what kind of player the Yankees value so highly.
Scouting Reports
Prior to the 2017 season, Andújar was thought of as a decent prospect, but not a special one. He was a just-OK hitter in the low minors who didn’t walk much but displayed good bat speed. In other words, he was something of a project. Then last year he slashed .315/.352/.498 between AA and AAA, and tantalized in a major league cameo, going 4-7 with a walk and a stolen base.
Naturally, the prospect hounds started drooling. FanGraphs was the most bullish of all, raking him the #14 prospect in baseball this spring. Baseball America and MLB.com ranked him #59 and #65, while Baseball Prospectus didn’t list him on their Top 101 whatsoever. FanGraphs graded him a 60 future value player on the 20-80 scale, describing him as such:
Andújar has cut down on his swing-and-miss while also lifting the ball more and hitting it with more authority, an obviously rare and desirable combination when you’re already working with a toolsy prospect who was always young for his level. There are still some lingering maturity questions and mental lapses on defense, but that didn’t stop the Pirates and other clubs from demanding Andújar in recent trade talks with the Yankees, who refused to discuss him.
With the Yankee universe salivating for a longer look, Andújar amassed a .928 OPS in Spring Training, and seized the starting third base job for good in April.
Offense
Andújar has been crushing line drives all over the American League this year. He’s established himself as a force in the batter’s box by hitting .289/.324/.497. He’s shown aggressiveness at the plate, striking out just 17.6% of the time (seventh best among all rookie hitters, min. 100 PA). His average exit velocity is 90.0 MPH, nearly three MPH better than MLB average. Correspondingly, his 39.3% hard hit rate is 5.2% batter than average.
There’s also room to grow here. His 9.3 degree average launch angle is actually below the MLB average of 10.8. This is a big reason why he has so many doubles. If he learns to elevate the ball a little more, as some young hitters tend to do, a lot of those doubles will turn into home runs.
However, there’s a problem with all that aggressiveness. He’s only walked 16 times this year, and one of those was intentional. That’s an unacceptable 4.5% walk rate; far below the MLB average of 8.6%. As a result, his .324 on base percentage drags down his total offensive value. His 121 wRC+ and .349 wOBA are pretty nice, but not nearly as high as they should be for a player that hits the ball so hard. Only four qualified hitters in baseball have a higher wRC+ with a lower walk rate: Corey Dickerson, Javy Baez, Jean Segura, and Ozzie Albies. His wOBA is 60th in MLB despite have the 34th best slugging percentage. All of which is to say that if he walked a little more, he’d be a monster.
Defense
Unfortunately, Andújar is also a monster on defense, but not the good kind. You know those “mental lapses on defense” that FanGraphs wrote about? They’ve led to several missed plays. He’s accounted for seven errors so far which really isn’t bad. His .959 fielding percentage is right on par with the .960 league average for third basemen, but fielding percentage tells only a small fraction of the story.
There’s no easy way to put this. Andújar is the worst third baseman in baseball. He’s booted his way to -13 defensive runs saved, which is the eighth worst mark in baseball, regardless of position, and far worse than any other third baseman. His -7.2 UZR is the sixth worst in baseball, as well as the worst of all players at the hot corner. Perhaps the most damning statistic of all is UZR/150, which prorates UZR for 150 games played to adjust for playing time. His -17.8 UZR/150 is the fourth worst at any position and 4.8 worse than any other infielder.
His arm is excellent, and that hasn’t been a problem at all. He’s athletic enough that he should have decent range. It’s his instincts and reactions that appear to be the problem. He’s simply not getting to enough balls hit in his direction. Here is his catch probability chart from Baseball Savant (click to enlarge).
The best play he’s made all year had a catch probability of 75%. That’s not even that good of a play; it’s really supposed to be made most of the time. In addition to not making any really good plays, he’s also failed to record outs on several relatively easy plays. He’s allowed base hits on balls with the following catch probabilities: 93%, 89%, 69%, and 65%. The combination of a lack of good plays and plurality of bad ones add up to a pretty awful third baseman.
So, Now What?
The Yankees aren’t in the business of making stupid decisions (although Gerrit Cole is having a pretty good year…). They steadfastly refuse to include Andújar in trade discussions because they clearly think he can overcome his problems. Offensively, the fix is simple enough on paper. To increase his on base percentage, he’ll need to learn to work deeper counts. That will likely come with increased strikeouts as well, so there will be a sacrifice to the batting average. It’s also really hard for hitters to change their approach. There’s a risk that he won’t drive the ball with such authority if he’s not swinging away. Surely, the Yankees’ hitting instructors have debated this already, and most likely he’ll just have to mature into a better approach over time.
The defense is harder to fix and much more problematic. Lots of infielders start out poor defensively and improve over time, so perhaps the Yankees just have to grin and bear it while they wait for him to get better. However, they also need to prepare in case that never happens. He may have to move to a different position. Maybe that’s first base, but given his above average athleticism and strong arm, perhaps the outfield would be a better fit. Alex Gordon and Ryan Braun are examples of awful third basemen who turned into very good left fielders. The only problem with this is the Yankees already have a pair of pretty decent corner outfielders named Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton.
Andújar is definitely an exceptionally talented hitter, but a flawed overall player. Maybe he’ll rid himself of some of these warts over time, and maybe he won’t. Either way, the Yankees are all-in for the foreseeable future.
-Daniel R. Epstein
