Seller’s Guide to the Trade Deadline: Minnesota Twins
While many of the dominos have fallen in recent days, the next 36 hours – and any ensuing waiver deals – promise even more intrigue as the MLB Trade Deadline approaches. While a few new additions try to reshape pennant races and general managers lather PR polish over the shiny new toys they present to hungry fanbases, many MLB franchises will begin to look toward the future. The mire of mediocrity has indeed caught more teams than usual in 2018, so leading up to the deadline, Off The Bench will be taking a look at clubs in need of a rebuild.
Minnesota Twins (44-50, 2nd AL Central)
In 2017, the Minnesota Twins were one of baseball’s biggest surprises. Under manager Paul Molitor, the team was able to nab the second wildcard spot during what most prognosticators called a rebuilding year heading into the season. Despite a loss to the Yankees in the Bronx, Minnesota entered the off-season hopeful for a longer playoff run in 2018. Budding young stars like starter Jose Berrios and third baseman Miguel Sano seemed poised to build off solid years, while franchise veterans like second baseman Brian Dozier and face of the franchise Joe Mauer offered up enough leadership to ease concerns of the team crashing back down to mediocrity.
In the end though, the team’s biggest weakness came back to bite them in 2018: pitching depth. Although the Twins traded for Jake Odorizzi from Tampa Bay and signed longtime Cardinal Lance Lynn to bolster their rotation, the squad has struggled to a 4.51 ERA as of July 19th, good for 22nd in baseball. As a result, a solid but unspectacular offense has been tasked with picking up all of the slack, to mixed results. After a putrid start to the year which saw him struggle to hit over the Mendoza line, Sano was optioned to the minors. In a walk year, Dozier has hit only .230, and the two big pitching acquisitions have ERA numbers of well over four runs per 9 innings.
However, Berrios has continued to pitch well, earning his first All-Star appearance, and left fielder Eddie Rosario has emerged as one of this season’s breakout stars, leading the team in batting average (.311), on base percentage (.353) and slugging (.537). Despite this, the team finds itself in a precarious position, as they trail the division-leading Indians by over eight games in the AL Central standings. The fire sale has already begun, with reliever Alex Pressley getting sent to Houston and third baseman Eduardo Escobar to Arizona. While a complete teardown seems rash, it would behoove the Minnesota front office to move expiring contracts and bolster a young core for future seasons, as opposed to standing pat at the trading deadline.
Brian Dozier
Most likely suitors: Brewers, Giants, Diamondbacks, Mariners
The Mariners are in the thick of a tightly contested AL Wildcard race, fighting the A’s for division supremacy. Recently, Junior Circuit rivals in Oakland and New York have made moves to bolster their already imposing bullpens. To counter, Seattle can acquire the right handed power bat of Dozier to match up against left-handed pitching. This gives the team both a weapon off the bench who can be used across the infield and a replacement for Robinson Cano, who cannot play in the postseason due to a PED ban. During a pennant race in which a single injury can shift an entire team’s performance, having a veteran All Star for depth could prove to be the difference. For a team that has often thrived during pressure filled moments, this will give Manager Scott Servais versatility and insurance to help Seattle break its postseason drought, all while sparing the front office from draining an already thin farm system.
Trade Prediction: Dozier goes to Seattle in exchange for RHP Matthew Festa (#8 SEA)
In return for the valuable bat of Dozier, the Mariners are forced to part with a top-10 prospect for a part-time rental. In Matthew Festa, the Twins get back a pitcher who has the potential to be a mid-rotation starter or a swing-and-miss late inning reliever. This comes in spite of the fact that Festa is already 25 years old. However, for a team one year removed from a wildcard birth, the focus on prospect acquisition should shift towards those who are closer to contributing right away. In Festa, the Twins can offset bullpen departures this season with a young man capable of touching 96 with a stellar slider to boot.
Fernando Rodney
Most likely suitors: Braves, Red Sox, Cubs, Mariners
At the youthful age of 41, Fernando Rodney has continued to prove himself as a reliable presence in the back end of almost any bullpen. This year, his first in Minnesota, has been no exception. Rodney has pitched to a solid 3.49 ERA, accompanied by 22 saves and a solid strikeout rate of 10 per 9 innings. While Rodney’s FIP of 3.94 suggests he has benefitted from playing in a pitcher’s park, there is no reason to believe that he couldn’t provide value as a middle reliever in a contender’s pen. Now that both Brad Hand, Jeurys Familia, and Zach Britton have been dealt, the relief market seems to have opened up. Expect many of the teams who lost out on bigger names to give the Twins a call about their veteran closer.
Trade Prediction:Rodney goes to Boston for RHP Jake Thompson (#27 BOS).
Boston, who have a depleted farm but strong desire for solid relievers, turn to Rodney, who has had previous success in the AL East. It certainly helps that current President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski is familiar with Rodney from his Detroit Tigers days. The return for Rodney is projected to be minimal, especially due to his short contract and advanced age. However, he still has value and may be able to provide even more prospect return for Minnesota. In this prediction, the Twins get Jake Thompson, a former Oregon St. Beaver who excelled in college, leading NCAA Division I in victories while going 14-1 with a 1.96 ERA. However, a shaky first pro year has left many believing his ceiling is that of a reliever.
Lance Lynn
Most likely suitors: Dodgers, Brewers, A’s, Giants
Overall, it has been a bad year for Lance Lynn. After struggling to find a contract in a reduced free agent market, the 31-year old decided to sign with Minnesota in March. While the acquisition was praised due to Lynn’s solid pitching in St. Louis, the righty has had difficulty adjusting to the American League. His 5.10 ERA is nearly two runs higher than what he had posted as a Cardinal, and the team has not been able to rely on him as a top-end starter. Therefore, finding a trade market for Lynn has been difficult. Thankfully for the Twins, the starting pitchers available for trade are uninspiring, especially after the trades of JA Happ, Nathan Eovaldi, and Cole Hamels. Contending teams may now look for deals on starters who, at the very least, can eat up innings and keep the bullpen fresh for October. For teams looking for innings, they could do worse than a pitcher who has tossed no less than 175 innings in every full season of his career.
To acquire Lynn, most believe the prospect cost will be minimal, given that he is a rental. However, given the extenuating circumstances of this years deadline as listed above, many teams might be willing to overpay and bank on Lynn returning to form. There is some reason for optimism; Lynn’s FIP of 4.73 suggests that he has been somewhat unlucky and needs a change of scenery.
Trade Prediction: Lynn and $7 mil. goes to Oakland for RHP Daulton Jefferies (#15 OAK) and INF Eli White (#19 OAK).
In return for the potential of Lynn, the A’s may be willing to part with some decent prospects, hinging on Minnesota’s ability to swallow some of Lynn’s contract. Jefferies projects to be a solid member of the rotation if all goes well, given his solid command and a nasty mid-80s changeup in his arsenal. However, a small frame and injury history have some wary of the 22-year old, but this shouldn’t prevent Minnesota from taking a chance. Eli White has come into his own as a minor league hitter in 2018, batting .317, albeit in the hitter-friendly Texas League. Coupled with his versatility, playing second, shortstop, third, and the outfield, White has the chance to become a valuable super-utility player in the majors.
