The St. Louis Cardinals Are In The Playoff Picture Again
As of July 15, the St. Louis Cardinals were owners of a 48-46 (.511) record. They were four games out of the second wild-card spot in the National League and 7.5 games out of first place in the NL Central. Their run differential of +9 suggested they were average. Their Pythagorean expected win-loss percentage of .512 confirmed they were essentially right where they should be.
As of August 20, however, the Cardinals are sitting at 68-57 (.544). The team’s run differential has risen to +56, better than that of the wild-card-qualifying Milwaukee Brewers (+22). A 14-4 surge in August has brought them to within a half-game of the crowded NL Wild Card Lead. As for the NL Central, they now sit within four games of the division lead held by the Chicago Cubs. In short, the St. Louis Cardinals’ postseason hopes have improved considerably. What’s more, Pythagorean expectation puts them exactly at 68-57, suggesting this team is the real deal.
It appears, then, the St. Louis Cardinals are where they should be. So, what gives? How is a team seemingly destined for a mediocre finish at the All-Star break now contending for a playoff berth? Let’s delve deeper into the story of the surging Cardinals.
Matt Carpenter is a beast
If Matt Carpenter was a borderline All-Star at the break, his torrid hitting in the second half has made him a borderline NL MVP. Carpenter leads the National League in home runs, and his team by a large margin. He’s also the team leader in on-base percentage.
What makes Carpenter’s success more impressive is his early-season struggles. As of May 12, the corner infielder was batting an anemic .145, with only three home runs and 13 RBI to his credit. Clearly, though Carpenter has turned it around, batting .297 overall in May, .313 in June, and a scorching .333 in July. Meanwhile, though he’s only batting .246 in August, he has still has been hitting for power. There may be more deserving candidates for the NL Most Valuable Player award this season. But there’s no question Matt Carpenter is the most valuable member of the 2018 St. Louis Cardinals.
He’s not the only one hitting lately
Matt Carpenter has been the clear team leader in the second half. Over the last 15 games, however, several Cardinals hitters have risen to the occasion. The ageless wonder Yadier Molina hit better than .300 in July and has hit around his career average of .284 in August. Jose Martinez leads the team for the year in batting average, and is hitting a cool .400 for the month. Harrison Bader has been similarly red-hot in August, getting on base better than a third of the time. Marcell Ozuna, too, has recovered from his own .210 mark in July to manage a plus-.300 mark this month. Even Kolten Wong, mostly a disappointment on the season, has been getting on base with regularity.
Young guns in the rotation
Carlos Martinez hasn’t thrown a pitch in the majors since the end of July. Michael Wacha has been on the disabled list since June. Adam Wainwright has been on the shelf since May. The oft-injured Alex Reyes made all of one start in “the bigs” this year. With these starters unavailable, one might think the Cardinals would be hurting with respect to starting pitching.
And yet, the St. Louis Cardinals find themselves riding a hot streak. Miles Mikolas, despite an uninspired K/9 rate, continues to pace the club in wins and ERA. Jack Flaherty, after a rocky July, has been more effective in his August starts thus far. John Gant, aside from a subpar start against the Pittsburgh Pirates, has been serviceable over the last two months. Austin Gomber has two August wins to his name, and figures to stay in the rotation with the news Carlos Martinez will remain in the bullpen for the rest of the 2018 regular season. In addition, should additional injuries befall the Cardinals, or should Luke Weaver continue to be mediocre, the acquisition of Tyson Ross is a nice failsafe.
The St. Louis Cardinals’ rotation of the moment may not look the way we expected it to before the season began. Indeed, the Cardinals have had 11 pitchers make at least one start for them. Each, except for Luke Weaver, has a positive WAR on the season. For the time being, they’re getting the job done.
The Mike Shildt factor?
We’d be remiss if we failed to mention the decision of Cardinals brass to fire Mike Matheny on July 14, dropping one Mike for another. Out went Matheny, in came bench coach Mike Shildt. The move was surprising, if only because Matheny had managed the team to the playoffs in each of his first four seasons, narrowly missing a postseason berth in 2016 and posting a winning record in 2017. To the extent Matheny could only do so much as a non-player, he may have gotten a raw deal from ownership.
Then again, maybe there is something to this managerial change. A shake-up on an underperforming team can be a bit of a wake-up call. Or perhaps this shift genuinely changes the club culture. As R.J. Anderson explains in a piece for CBS Sports, positive changes attributable to Shildt including moving Yadier Molina up in the batting order, taking a more detailed and aggressive approach to hitting strategy, and better management of the pitching staff.
Just as well, though, Shildt may benefit simply from being the next guy up. Anderson writes:
In a sense…Shildt has benefited from good timing in multiple regards. He inherited a team that seemed to have more talent than it had shown; a front office who was ready to rid themselves of underperformers; and a post that had previously been occupied by one of baseball’s most criticized skippers.
Almost anything Shildt did would have looked good by comparison—and so far, that’s been exactly the case. If we accept the idea of the St. Louis Cardinals were underachievers, this lends even more credence to Anderson’s argument.
Whatever his true effect, the Cardinals have been getting it done in all facets lately. Whether they can outlast other contenders is another question, but until they hit a slump, there’s every reason to believe their success will continue.
