Colorado Rockies Surging Due to Maturation of Young Staff
The Colorado Rockies pitching staff aren’t winning over any skeptics with their raw statistics. Their collective 4.58 team ERA ranks 23rd in the majors. Even their offense doesn’t harken to the excellence of yesteryear. Despite playing at Coors Field with its excellent offensive effect, they rank between the Braves and Nationals in terms of runs scored. Their defense has been good to an extent, with the sixth-fewest errors in the league, but they’re 19th in the league in defensive WAR.
When those marks combine together, we can look to run differential to determine general flukiness, and the Rockies have scored 13 fewer runs then they’ve allowed. Even the disappointing Nationals hold a better mark. The only other legitimate contender ranked lower than Colorado in this regard is Seattle, whose run differential problem has been well documented.
However, they’ve gone 37-29 on the road, compared to a modest 31-28 record at home. As expected with their negative run differential, they have had a lot of success in one-run games, going 21-13 in those situations. They’ve scored 297 runs at home, and 288 on the road. Clearly, playing in the high altitude of Coors Field isn’t giving them much of an advantage over opponents.
So how is it, then, that the Rockies are currently just a half game back of the second National League Wild Card spot and only a game and half behind the Arizona Diamondbacks for first place in the NL West? The short answer is that they’ve been hot lately, as they recently just completed a stretch where they went 30-16 against opponents with a .500 record or better, finishing it off with a four-game sweep on the road against the first place Atlanta Braves.
Yesterday we finished a stretch of 46 consecutive games against teams .500 or better. That ties the 1926 Phillies for the longest such streak in NL history. Also of note, we went 30-16 in those games.
Incredible. 😤 pic.twitter.com/WOlTaroc7W
— Colorado Rockies (@Rockies) August 20, 2018
Looking at what could have contributed to this mid-summer hot streak, surprisingly their offense has not been a consistent factor. They scored 153 runs in June, leading the league, but they allowed 180 runs, resulting in a disappointing 11-16 record. The pitching staff completely flipped this around in July, allowing fewer than half the amount of runs with 79. Even though their offensive production dropped to 122 runs that month, they finished with an outstanding 17-6 record.
Clearly, the Rockies’ recent success stems from their starting pitching, and it was in July when their starting staff began to turn things around. Jon Gray came back from the minors and posted 1.66 ERA, and Tyler Anderson owned a dominant 2.16 ERA on the month. The back end of the rotation was strong as well, with German Marquez striking out nearly 10 batters per nine innings, and Antonio Senzatela boasted a 0.38 HR/9. Kyle Freeland pitched well like he has all year, but with a 2.54 ERA in July. The staff has continued success throughout August, with the exception of Anderson, who has allowed an abysmal 21 runs in 20.2 inning, compared to the 24 runs he allowed in 71.2 innings through June and July. During their recent four-game sweep of the Braves, their starters allowed just eight runs in 25 innings pitched, and every starter went at least five innings.
Colorado’s bullpen woes have been well-documented, but they have three quality relievers who consistently get overlooked. We wrote about Adam Ottavino in early July and his numbers still look good: a 1.61 ERA and 13.06 K/9 on the season. Seung Hwan Oh, who came over from the Jays at the deadline, has a nearly identical ERA of 1.69, albeit in just 10.2 innings with the Rockies so far. Scott Oberg has helped stabilize the pen, posting a sub-three ERA. But if the team wants to make a serious run, they’ll need to complete a waiver deal for another reliever, preferably a left-hander, as their three primary lefties out of the pen (Jake McGee, Mike Dunn, and Chris Rusin) own a combined 7.40 ERA.
The tremendous growth of their staff is the most significant reason why the Rockies are still around. Teams like the St. Louis Cardinals are enjoying success after embracing their young arms, and the Rockies’ staff (who currently have a combined average age of 25 years old) has stepped up to lead their team into the heat of the playoff hunt.
