Trade Deadline Retrospective: Moves That Could Have Made a Difference
As closely contested divisional and wildcard races reach the stretch run across the Majors, many clubs have begun to separate themselves. However, several other teams have begun to slump at the worst time possible, significantly hurting their chances to play meaningful baseball in October. While all the front offices of these teams just outside the playoff standings made moves in June and July to get better, it appears that management didn’t do enough to help the major league team compete at the highest level. This begs the question: what should these postseason contenders have done differently before July 31st?
Milwaukee Brewers
Current FanGraphs Playoff Odds: 58%
Move They Should Have Made: Trade for Gio Gonzalez
It wasn’t long ago when the Milwaukee Brewers were viewed as one of the NL’s elite teams. Led by a stifling relief core and a revamped lineup, the club was 36-21 at the start of June. However, things have fallen off since then, mainly due to starting pitching. Junior Guerra, who was the team’s unlikely ace over the first half, has struggled mightily, pitching to an ERA of well over 6 in his past seven starts since coming back from injury. Otherwise, only winter acquisition Jhoulys Chacin has pitched notably well, with the rest of the rotation looking decent, but certainly not formidable.
In addition to starting pitching woes, the team has also lost many of the games that matter, going 25-31 against the rest of the NL Central, which includes the Cubs and the surging Cardinals. Currently, the Brew Crew sits at 77-61, with four other teams within four games of their wildcard spot. To support a mediocre pitching staff and put up a fight against divisional rivals, the most logical solution back in July would have been to go out and get veteran starter Gio Gonzalez from the disappointing Nationals. Gonzalez, who has had a down year following a stellar 2017, is still an above average pitcher with the ability to eat up innings, an important factor in keeping the Brew Crew’s dominant bullpen fresh for the postseason. In addition, the 11-year veteran has also had success against Milwaukee’s biggest foes, pitching to an ERA of 3.06 and 2.97 in over 50 innings of work against Chicago and St. Louis, respectively. The prospect cost likely wouldn’t have been substantial either, factoring in Milwaukee’s reluctance to shell out for top-line pitchers. He also possesses postseason experience, something no other starter in the rotation can claim. All in all, Gonzalez could have been the missing piece to a run for the franchise’s second pennant, but his month of August was spent in Nationals’ red. Instead, the team finds itself falling further and further from the Cubs, with a bevy of wildcard contenders hot on their tails going into September.
Seattle Mariners
Current FanGraphs Playoff Odds: 10%
Move They Should Have Made: Trade for Jeurys Familia
Disappointing doesn’t begin to describe the past two months for the Seattle Mariners, owners of baseball’s longest active playoff drought. The team has played six games below .500 since the start of July, which has coincided with the red-hot A’s overtaking them for the second wild-card spot. The team was due for a regression, based on their negative run differential and stellar record in one-run games, so the drop off is not entirely unexpected. However, there was enough hope that the team’s acquisition of reliever Alex Colome from the Rays and the return of Robinson Cano from a PED suspension could help push them to the playoffs. Although Colome has been solid and Cano has contributed, the team has been beleaguered by a mediocre and injury prone pitching staff. Starters James Paxton and Marco Gonzales are currently on the disabled list, while franchise icon Felix Hernandez has pitched horribly throughout most of the year.
Acquiring another starter would have probably been the wisest course of action back in July, there were few above-average starters that were available for a reasonable price. Instead, a better move may have been to turn a decent relief corps into a super pen by trading for now-A’s reliever Jeurys Familia. Familia was traded by the Mets in mid-July, who got back an unimpressive haul based more on financial details than actual prospects. The Mets were apparently more interested in international signing bonus money in return for the former All-Star. By trading for Familia, the Mariners would have been able to shorten games for an overworked and injury-prone staff. In addition, the team would have been able to steal the 28-year old away from their main rival. Although GM Jerry DiPoto has a reputation for wheeling and dealing, it appears that he didn’t do enough to prevent another late-season collapse for the Mariners.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Current FanGraphs Playoff Odds: 80%
Move They Should Have Made: Added Zach Britton to the Machado Trade
Although they are in first place, the Los Angeles Dodgers are not where they expected to be this time of the year. Following the move to acquire arguably the best hitting shortstop in baseball in Manny Machado, in addition to slugging second baseman Brian Dozier, the team was expected to cruise to yet another NL West crown. Things have not worked out so easily; Machado has been good but not great, and the team’s relievers, including All-Star closer Kenley Jansen, have blown multiple games. Although the bullpen is better than their recent results may indicate, L.A. would have been well served to bolster an inconsistent group by including Zach Britton in the Machado trade. Britton, who was traded to the Yankees, hasn’t had much success since joining the Bronx Bombers. However, the lefty may have been better suited to pitching in the pitcher-friendly confines of Dodger Stadium. He still possesses swing-and-miss stuff, as well as a stellar 0.9 HR/9, which could be expected to decrease further if he was pitching in the National League.
Britton, a rental, could have given Los Angeles a certified setup man, instead of mixing and matching with a variety of different options. For a Dodger team that is still a well rounded World Series contender, throwing in a couple more prospects to nab Britton from the Orioles before other teams even had the chance may have been a smart investment. Instead, the team will bridge the gap from its starters to Kenley Jansen using a group of solid but untested relievers in September. We even wrote about this need back in June.
This all comes while trying to surpass the D-Backs within the division and jump over three other teams in the wildcard race, a tall order for any club. The Dodgers need their relievers to do the job, or else they may have some regret over not pursuing pitching at the deadline.
Philadelphia Phillies
Current FanGraphs Playoff Odds: 40%
Move They Should Have Made: Trade for Matt Duffy
Although it has been a good season to be a Phillies fan, the team has watched the Braves surpass them in the divisional standings by four games, and they’re now three and a half back for a wildcard spot. Despite possessing one of the game’s premier farm systems, the club was selective at the deadline, only dealing for second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera from the Mets, who has struggled since coming to Philly, and Wilson Ramos, who is not a difference-making backstop.
Current second baseman Scott Kingery has potential but has struggled mightily this season, batting .230. To fix their middle infield issues, the team would have been wise to get versatile infielder Matt Duffy from the Tampa Bay Rays. Although he isn’t much in the power department, he has a knack for getting on base, hitting .298 with a .356 on-base percentage. Besides, the Phillies have plenty of power but lack the table setters to bring in more runs. On the other side of the ball, the 27-year old can also play all around the diamond and in the outfield, making him a valuable commodity for any team in today’s game. He also aligns well with Philadelphia’s timeline of contention, since he is controlled for two more seasons following 2018. While the Rays wouldn’t give him away cheaply, the team has shown they are willing to trade anyone away for the right price. The Phillies are an ideal trade candidate, given the team’s bevy of impact young players and positional need. Duffy could have acted as the team’s version of Ben Zobrist, spelling players in need of rest as a super-utility man, or he could have seized the starting second baseman job from the Cabrera/Kingery mix. Instead, Tampa Bay will hold onto Duffy as a piece for an emerging young roster, while the Phillies may regret not adding him to their own burgeoning youth movement.
-Bryan Armetta
