Why the Yankees Should Use an Opener in the Wild Card Game
Thanks to analytics, payroll disparity, and Kevin Cash, 2018 has seen the “opener” evolve from quirky tactic to legitimate option right before our eyes. Cliff Corcoran of The Athletic recently broke down the success the Tampa Bay Rays have enjoyed since routinely employing the opener, and opined that the Oakland Athletics should consider utilizing an opener if they reach the AL Wild Card game, which is highly probable.
Furthering the discussion Corcoran started regarding the idea of “bullpening” as a legit postseason strategy, it’s worth looking at the team the A’s will most likely face in the Wild Card game: The New York Yankees.
The Yankees have a combo of payroll and prestige that, on the surface, should preclude their use of an opener. However, I’d argue that the tactic is unfairly stigmatized as befitting only small market teams unable to assemble rotation depth, and as the regular season comes to a close, it’s becoming clearer that the Yanks should consider using an opener in the inevitable Wild Card game.
Luis Severino, who once looked like a frontrunner for the AL Cy Young award, has struggled of late (through nine second half starts, the 24 year old has posted a horrendous 6.95 ERA), and unless he makes a drastic turnaround, he will not be starting the one-and-done elimination game. Sonny Gray and Lance Lynn, other struggling starters, will be lucky to make the playoff roster at this point.
So who else could New York turn to? There’s the ageless CC Sabathia, who has a respectable 3.63 ERA since the All-Star break, but it’s worth noting that Sabathia’s most recent start came against the A’s and he couldn’t get out of the fourth inning. Perhaps JA Happ could be a potential option, as the veteran southpaw has enjoyed moderate success in pinstripes. Though, would the Yankees be willing to place their entire season on the shoulders of a guy who will have only been on the team for two months?
For true starters, the Yankees’ best option at this point is Masahiro Tanaka. His 2.66 ERA in 50.2 innings since the All-Star break is by far the best of any starter in the Yankees’ rotation. He also boasts a 1.44 ERA in 25 career innings in the playoffs. But when your season comes down to one game, do you want to risk sending out a guy who has had an inconsistent year like Tanaka? His second half ERA is comprised of a great July and one great start in September. His August numbers? A 4.40 ERA and an alarming .304/.344/.535 slash line against. That is not a gamble a potential 100 win team wants to make.
Now let’s take a look at the bullpen. It’s no secret that their relief corps has been one of the best in the league, if not the best. They rank first among all teams with a 8.5 WAR, which far exceeds the second ranking team, the Astros, who have a 7.1 WAR. They strike out more batters per nine innings than any other team, and own a 0.99 HR/9, which is exceptional considering they play in the incredibly hitter-friendly confines of Yankee Stadium.
So who could serve as the opener for New York? They have an incredibly deep bullpen, filled with plenty of quality arms, as listed below. Previously-stretched-out Chad Green is the likeliest candidate, with A.J. Cole and Jonathan Holder also available if the plan is to go full-on staff day. That would leave a murderers row of Zach Britton, David Robertson, Dellin Betances, and Aroldis Chapman for the late innings.
With this strategy, the Yankees could conceivably carry a 9-10 man bullpen depending on how many starters they want to include on the Wild Card game roster for insurance. This would allow them to play matchups against Oakland’s explosive lineup.
Ultimately, the undeniable quality of the Yanks’ bullpen outweighs the risk of their inconsistent starting staff. The decision to utilize the opener and rely solely on their relievers in the Wild Card game should be one New York considers very carefully, but to do it will require practice. you don’t want the winner-take-all Wild Card game to be the first time a Yankee reliever throws the first pitch of a game. The next few weeks might provide some clues as to Aaron Boone‘s thinking here – if we see Chad Green working early in games, hang on to your hat.
How exciting would it be if both Athletics and Yankees opt to go into single-elimination battle with nothing but their dominant bullpens? Fans will surely be in for one of the most interesting Wild Card games since its inception, and Joe Buck might have an aneurysm.
