Examining Bryce Harper’s Free Agency
Odds are, Bryce Harper has played his final games as National. Sure, Harper loves it in D.C., but it seems even he knows he will likely move on to another team this offseason, as Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post tweeted that Harper was feeling especially sentimental about dawning the home whites for what was probably the last time.
Bryce Harper is in full uniform 3.5 hours before the game. Said he wanted to get here early and enjoy putting on the white jersey for what might be the last time.
— Chelsea Janes (@chelsea_janes) September 26, 2018
Many, but not all, have argued that it would make sense for Harper to stay in Washington for at least one more year to rebuild his stock after a “down” year, though Harper’s .968 OPS in the second half seems to have nullified that opinion. Harper has put together a strong season, driving in 100 RBI’s for the first time in his career, if that stat still means anything in this day and age.
Beyond this, it just doesn’t make sense logistically for the Nats resign Harper. You have to assume he will net at least $35 million annually and would be surprising to see the Nationals invest this kind of money in an outfielder. They already have young superstars Juan Soto and Victor Robles, along with Adam Eaton, who is signed to an extremely friendly contract ($8.4 million next year, $9.5 option for 2020) and has played exceptionally when healthy. Harper isn’t just any outfielder, and has arguably become the face of the Nationals’ franchise, but this is a business, and the Nationals have other areas of concern to address, such as their rotation and catching situation.
So who could pursue the prestigious young slugger?
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs have been rumored for a while now, but they have a few hefty, long-term financial commitments and some significant arbitration eligible players, such as Kris Bryant and Javier Baez. They also already employ two quality left handed bats in the outfield, Jason Heyward and Kyle Schwarber, and Albert Amora Jr. has shown flashes of brilliance as a center fielder. So ultimately, the Cubs are not too likely of a landing spot.
Los Angeles Dodgers
How about another NL contender, the Los Angeles Dodgers? Despite some clever financial maneuvers and key impending free agents, the Dodgers still have a loaded payroll for next year. Their crowded outfield is an even bigger problem than the Cubs, as they still have Matt Kemp for 2019, along with the resurgent Joc Pederson, electrifying Yasiel Puig, top prospect Alex Verdugo, and other versatile defenders like Cody Bellinger and Chris Taylor. To say the least, the Dodgers should focus on other areas of their team this offseason, like who should replace Yasmani Grandal at catcher if he signs with another team.
San Francisco Giants
A potential dark horse in this sweepstakes are the San Francisco Giants, who have also been considered as a logical landing spot for Harper for some time now. The Giants certainly have room in their outfield for Harper, but his projected contract will push them dangerously towards the luxury tax threshold, and that’s not even mentioning the other signings they would need to make to return to their contending ways. Which brings up a very important questions: would Harper sign with the Giants knowing immediate success isn’t guaranteed?
Philadelphia Phillies
Another important question that we won’t know the answer to until Harper finally signs somewhere is this: would Harper leave the Nationals and sign with a division rival? The Phillies are a possible landing spot, with tons of cap room and a flexible outfield. The Phillies may have their sights set on more pressing needs, however, as signing big names like Manny Machado and Andrew Miller would sure up some of the team’s weaker spots, as their shortstops ranked 26th in WAR, while their relievers ranked 18th in ERA.
Atlanta Braves
Staying in the NL East, another logical choice would be the Atlanta Braves who, like the Phillies, have money to spend, with just over $100 million committed next year. They also have an opening in right field with Nick Markakis’ contract expiring after this season. Of all the National League teams, the Braves look to be the likeliest landing spot for Harper.
Looking at the American League, there are certainly more compelling suitors for Harper, both in terms of defensive availability and payroll.
New York Yankees
Some have pegged the New York Yankees as a prime contender in the Bryce Harper bidding war. The Bronx Bombers have done a tremendous job in cutting their payroll, as they are expect to pay $153 million to their players in 2019, and that number could drop if the team chooses Brett Gardner’s $2 million opt out instead of paying him $12 million, which would also open up a spot in the outfield for Harper. While the Yankees will certainly look to bolster their starting staff this offseason, they will certainly have the resources to make a run at Harper.
Houston Astros
Meanwhile, another AL superpower, the Astros, could also look to pursue Harper. They have space for him in their outfield, as they could play him in his natural position in right and slide Josh Reddick over to left field. They also have a relatively low payroll, thanks in part to most of their top players still being in the arbitration stages of their careers. However, they still have to account for Atluve’s annual salary of $29 million starting in 2019, and those aforementioned arbitration eligible players will soon take a heavy toll on Houston’s payroll, especially when that group includes such players as Carlos Correa, George Springer and Lance McCullers Jr. The Astros also have some impressive outfield prospects, namely Kyle Tucker, which could lead the reigning World Series champs to invest their funds into other impact players.
Cleveland Indians
The third and final American League team to seriously consider are the Cleveland Indians. There hasn’t been much noise around Cleveland when it comes to the Harper rumors, but they are arguably the best fit for the left handed slugger. Lonnie Chisenhall, their regular right fielder, is a free agent this offseason, as is Michael Brantley. It’s also worth noting that, despite Brantley’s stellar offensive season, the Indians outfield has a meager WAR of 5.5. There’s no doubt Cleveland could benefit from an offensive boost in their outfield, perhaps giving them more of an incentive and sense of urgency to pursue Harper. They also have a relatively low payroll of $125 million, and they have their entire starting rotation and infield (including catchers and DH) under contract for next year. They will probably have to focus on their bullpen, namely replacing Andrew Miller, but signing Bryce Harper could keep the team as a serious contender for years to come in a rebuilding AL Central.
So who will sign Harper? When it comes to a free agent of this magnitude, it’s nearly impossible to predict. Atlanta, New York, Houston and Cleveland all make sense, and there’s always the possibility that a dark horse emerges. It does look, though, that six years after debuting as a 19 year old prospect, Harper will move on from the Nationals, and will earn a contract close to what he’s looking for. My prediction? The Indians will sign him to a huge deal, but it won’t be 10 years and it won’t hold an annual value of $40 million a year. But it will be fun to witness the media circus surrounding his free agency, especially considering the mystery it currently holds.
All financial figures were found on Baseball Reference.
-Michael Gonzalez
