Colorado Rockies Were Who We Thought They Were
So much for #Rocktober. After sending the Chicago Cubs packing in the Wild Card game, the Colorado Rockies followed that triumph up with an uninspired sweep at the hands of the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Division Series. Over the course of 28 innings in three games, the Rockies scored a mere two runs.
It wasn’t as if Colorado came across the best and brightest pitchers in the National League either. True, Milwaukee’s strength, pitching-wise, has been in its bullpen arms, especially Josh Hader and Jeremy Jeffress. The sub-8 K/9 pitching of Jhoulys Chacin and Wade Miley, meanwhile, is less intimidating. Eight Brewers pitchers combined over those 28 innings to compile a 0.64 ERA with a 0.79 WHIP.
Good pitching? Maybe. But the evidence from the regular season suggests the Colorado Rockies weren’t a very good hitting team. Trevor Story posted a career year. Nolan Arenado was also his usual excellent self, and Charlie Blackmon was solid, though perhaps not quite as spectacular as in seasons past.
After that, however, the OWAR drop-off is a steep one. Who was the fourth-best Rockies hitter in OWAR, according to Baseball-Reference? Carlos Gonzalez, a non-qualifier. Fifth on the list? DJ LeMahieu, who only played in 128 of 163 games (fewer than 80%). Sixth? David Dahl, who appeared in only 77 regular-season games and registered fewer than 250 official at-bats. After Dahl? German Marquez, a starting pitcher. You read that right.
As Paul Klee, columnist for the Gazette in Colorado Springs, puts Colorado’s offensive struggles in context, the Rockies weren’t just bad, they were historically bad. From his postseason postmortem:
This was the worst offensive team in club history. When the wind chill on Sunday dropped into the 30s and furthered the Rockies’ bats into a deep freeze, it was nothing out of the ordinary. The strikeouts that turned Rocktober into Rockkkktober were simply a continuation of who they were too often, underscored by the bright lights of the postseason. The lowest batting average in team history (.256). The lowest road batting average in team history (.225). An offense that, when held under the microscope of ballpark-adjusted metrics, was closer to the 47-win Orioles than the NL West-winning Dodgers.
Over the course of 96 at-bats in the NLDS, the Colorado Rockies managed a paltry 14 hits, slashing .146/.210/.188 during the three-game series. The Rockies player with the most hits? Gerardo Parra (3), who pinch hit in Game 1 and did not bat in Game 3. Think about that. Nolan Arenado went 2-for-11 (.182). Trevor Story went 2-for-12 (.167). Charlie Blackmon? 1-for-12 (.083). Perhaps most tellingly, Colorado did not hit one home run all series, after hitting 210 HR in the regular season. This was not your grand-pappy’s Rockies, if that makes any sense.
Indeed, the 2018 Colorado Rockies were buoyed by their starting pitching. Again, putting things in a historical context, this seems odd to say, but it’s true. What’s more, this proved to be the case in the NLDS. In 16 innings pitched, Tyler Anderson, Antonio Senzatela, and German Marquez combined to cede just five earned runs.
The Colorado bullpen, meanwhile, gave up 8 ER over 10.2 IP, a microcosm of a disappointing campaign. Adam Ottavino and Scott Oberg, two of the better Rockies relievers in the regular season, underperformed by their standards. Trade deadline acquisition Seunghwan Oh finished the NLDS with a 13.50 ERA and a 3.75 WHIP. To top it all off, Wade Davis, making $10 million this year, failed to record an out in a dismal appearance in Game 3. ESPN lists his NLDS ERA and WHIP as 0.00, but only because division by zero is a mathematical impossibility. In all, the Rockies pitching staff ended the series against the Brewers with a 4.39 ERA and 1.65 WHIP. Had it not been for the contributions of the starters, it could’ve been that much worse.
What makes the Colorado Rockies’ ending of its season with a whimper yet worse is that focus immediately shifts to decisions the organization must make heading into 2019. Looming largest is impending free agency for D.J. LeMahieu and Adam Ottavino, who both stand to generate significant interest this offseason.
Of somewhat less importance is Carlos Gonzalez, but for someone who has spent 10 of his 11 seasons in the majors in a Rockies uniform, it’s notable regardless of his apparent statistical decline. For a team that currently has a significant amount of payroll tied up with the likes of Ian Desmond, Nolan Arenado, Wade Davis, and Charlie Blackmon, what to do about CarGo is more than a passing concerns.
Going forward, too, the Rockies will likely need to address their existing shortcomings if they are going to stay competitive in the NL. The Los Angeles Dodgers, with their payroll and improved farm system, aren’t going anywhere. Fellow division mates, the Arizona Diamondbacks possess a comparable level of talent, including stars like Paul Goldschmidt, and Zack Greinke. The NL Central is three teams strong with contenders in the Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, and St. Louis Cardinals. As for the East, the Atlanta Braves appear to be on the rise with young talent in the starting lineup and in the starting rotation. Even the Washington Nationals, Bryce Harper or no Bryce Harper, figure to be in the mix. In other words, a return to the postseason is far from a foregone conclusion for Colorado in 2019.
Given that they spent significant portions of the season near zero or below it in run differential, the Rockies should be proud of coming within a win of capturing of the NL West crown and to even escaping the Wild Card round by topping the powerful Cubs. When the “real” playoffs came, however, the Colorado Rockies were who we thought they were: as Paul Klee puts it, “better than the teams who stayed home last week and not quite as good as the teams who are still playing.” With the season now ended, this year’s answers give way to significant uncertainty about what the club must do in the short and long term.
-Joe Mangano
