What’s Dallas Keuchel Worth?
The Houston Astros extended a $17.9 million qualifying offer to free agent Dallas Keuchel. Keuchel, an AL Cy Young winner in 2015, two-time All-Star, and three-time Gold Glove recipient, will likely be looking for more than that, in terms of both years and annual salary.
Is Keuchel worth no more than the mean salary of the league’s 125 highest-paid players? Or is he more valuable than perhaps people realize?
As Danny Knobler reasons in a piece that appears on Bleacher Report, Keuchel is the “prime Cy Young winner being ignored entering free agency.” Knobler full well recognizes the case against the 31-year-old Keuchel:
- His average fastball doesn’t even clock in the 90s.
- He hasn’t been in the Cy Young conversation since he won in 2015.
- We seem to be in an era of declining importance of the starting pitcher.
With so many high-quality hard-throwing relievers in Major League Baseball, the “bullpen game” appears to be gaining traction. This is all working against Dallas Keuchel and $17.9M is an awful lot of money to turn down. So, what’s the case for Dallas Keuchel? Let’s cover why the left-hander may not be getting his due as we enter the baseball off-season.
RECENT SUCCESS
Knobler distinguishes between Keuchel and someone like CC Sabathia, who is nearly 40 and a fielding liability. Sabathia last won a Cy Young in 2007. That’s a lot different from winning it more recently in 2015.
Even more recently, 2018 was an uneven season for Keuchel (overall, a 3.74 ERA and 1.31 WHIP). Still, he managed to post 20 quality starts—matching teammate Gerrit Cole—good for a tie for ninth in baseball. He also went five innings and gave up only two earned runs in each of his starts this postseason. That’s certainly nothing to sneeze at.
RELIABILITY
Dallas Keuchel made 34 starts in 2018, logging over 200 innings pitched. As with quality starts, that innings pitched total is good for top-10 in all of baseball. Only Jhoulys Chacin made more starts and that tally of 34 tied him with Justin Verlander for second. As much as baseball has shifted away from reliance on starting pitching, the more you can use a starter, the less taxing it is on your bullpen. In terms of earning his paycheck, Keuchel has certainly shown up for work reliably.
RISKINESS OF OTHER PITCHERS
If we’re looking at fastball velocity, a pitcher like Nathan Eovaldi has Dallas Keuchel clearly beat. However, Eovaldi also has never made 200 IP in a season and missed all of 2017 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Other starting pitchers have similar concerns. Patrick Corbin only managed to hit 200 IP in 33% of his seasons. Hyun-Jin Ryu has been beset by injury problems in recent seasons. J.A. Happ has a career 3.90 ERA. Gio Gonzalez is coming off a 4.21 ERA, 1.44 WHIP campaign. Especially as far as left-handed starters go, Keuchel is at least as trustworthy as his cohorts.
Part of the issue with how to value Dallas Keuchel is looking at his whole career versus looking at his current profile against the rest of the league. If we’re judging Keuchel by his Cy Young campaign, all successive seasons are a disappointment. In 2015, Keuchel struck out 216 batters over 232 IP, posting a 20 – 8 record with a 2.48 ERA and 1.02 WHIP.
In 2018, over 204.2, he managed only 153 Ks, going 12 – 11 with the 3.74 ERA and 1.31 WHIP.
Even at his peak, Keuchel didn’t strike out batters at a truly elite clip (8.4 K/9). Down to 6.7 K/9 in 2018, he doesn’t necessarily fit the bill of an Ace. In fact, this year, he was really the fourth starter on his team, overshadowed by Verlander, Cole, and Charlie Morton.
Dallas Keuchel may not be your top choice for a starting pitcher in Fantasy—or a top-10 or even top-25 choice, at that. However, this is real-world baseball we’re talking about. As writers like Danny Knobler believe, he has considerable value as a decorated and still effective pitcher who can reliably take the mound.
If past precedent is any indication, Keuchel is unlikely to accept the qualifying offer. The Astros would love to have him back on a short-term deal. Whoever signs him, stands to receive a reliable starting pitcher, still capable of getting lots of Major League hitters out.
-Joe Mangano
