One Free Agent For NL Contenders This Winter
After yet another Dodgers collapse in the Fall Classic, it is fair for fans to question the Senior Circuit’s ability to take on the juggernauts in the American League. The AL has now won the last 6 All-Star Games and 4 of the last 6 World Series bouts. However, even if the NL lacks the strength of the AL, it certainly makes up for it with excitement. Last season contained tight races in two divisions as well as both wild card spots, keeping fans compelled well into September. This season promises to be more of the same, with teams expected to make some major changes over the coming months. Here is one free agent to improve every NL contender’s chances for 2019.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Sign Adam Ottavino
Anyone watching the World Series could see L.A.’s biggest weakness: their bullpen. Players who had handled big moments earlier in the postseason, such as Ryan Madson and Scott Alexander, collapsed like a house of cards when facing Boston’s big bats. As a result, the Dodgers choked away several chances to jump back into the series. That cannot happen again for a team that invests so heavily into the rest of their roster. The best place to look for an upgrade may come from right in the division. For the Rockies, Adam Ottavino posted a 2.43 ERA while dealing 112 strikeouts over 77.2 innings in the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field. These numbers will certainly ensure that the 32-year old is paid handsomely this winter. That should be no issue for Los Angeles, a team set to navigate its way under the luxury tax for the first time in years. While Ottavino may not excite the casual fan, he could be the missing link for a Dodgers team that is itching to capture a title.
Colorado Rockies: Sign Marwin Gonzalez
Following one of the greatest postseason games ever, the Colorado Rockies were ready to upset the Brewers, with a formidable pitching corps set to silence the fearsome Milwaukee lineup. While the pitchers mostly held their end of the bargain, the offense was putrid. Colorado’s traditionally powerful lineup was held to just two total runs in the series, getting shut out at home to end their season in disappointing fashion. Offense is clearly the priority this offseason, but it also comes with a catch. Second baseman D.J. LeMahieu is a free agent, and while bringing him back should be on the table, big market clubs may pay a big price for a premium producer at second. A solution for the Rockies, whether they bring LeMahieu back or not, is to sign Marwin Gonzalez. The versatile Gonzalez has become one of the best super-utility players in baseball, filling in across the infield and the corner outfield. This makes him an optimal fit in Colorado, where he can plug in at a variety of positions across the diamond in need of production. In addition, Gonzalez has plenty of postseason experience during his time in Houston. The Rockies need versatility and a quality bat that can extend the lineup past Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon. Gonzalez does both.
St. Louis Cardinals: Sign Craig Kimbrel
One trend in these predictions: expect the contenders to go after bullpen help. While this isn’t shocking given the increasing need of back-end arms, what may catch many off guard is the escalating price of doing business with bullpen guys. Craig Kimbrel is a perfect example. Thanks to exorbitant contracts handed out to relievers in recent years, namely the Aroldis Chapman deal, Kimbrel can be expected to flirt with a contract of over $16 million in annual value. Not many teams have the pressing need or payroll flexibility to pull off such a deal. The St. Louis Cardinals are an exception. For a good-not-great team, 2018 was a decent year, with the team performing well after the midseason firing of Mike Matheny as manager. Now, St. Louis looks to take the next step, which should come from the pen. Outside of young flamethrower Jordan Hicks, who has issues with his command, there aren’t too many promising options for the Cards relief staff. Kimbrel comes in and gives the team a battle-tested veteran who can immediately shorten the game for a talented starting rotation. The 29-year old Kimbrel is also the best reliever on the market, and signing him also means keeping him away from other National League rivals. While the Cards have whiffed on the trade market in recent years, the front office should be able to nab a star that will get the fanbase excited going into next season.
Chicago Cubs: Sign D.J. LeMahieu
Daniel Murphy was brought in as a stopgap for the Cubs at second base last August. However, his lack of athleticism proved to make the addition of his bat somewhat less significant, and likely nixing the possibility of him signing back on the North Side this offseason. In LeMahieu, the Cubs have the opportunity to nab a younger, more athletic middle infielder who has a knack for getting on base. Over the past four seasons, the second baseman has hit .309 with a.369 OBP. For the Cubs, one of their biggest flaws was exposed in last season’s wildcard game against Colorado, in which they only scored one run on an Anthony Rizzo home run. Time and time again, they proved unable to get a big base hit to bring home the winning run, often striking out in major situations in the game. Their approach to this offseason shouldn’t be to find big bats. The middle of the lineup is fearsome enough already, especially with the emergence of Javy Baez as a 30-homer threat at the plate. It needs to be focused on table-setters who aren’t all-or-nothing hitters. These types of players are now rarer than ever in the launch angle era. In addition to his bat skills, LeMahieu is a stellar defender, as evidenced by his three Gold Gloves, and would offer up a major improvement on that side of the ball compared to Murphy. The Cubbies would be foolish to let a player like D.J. LeMahieu go, and they should pursue him aggressively this winter.
Milwaukee Brewers: Sign Dallas Keuchel
By all accounts, it was a great season for the Milwaukee Brewers. After narrowly missing the wildcard game last year, the club brought in both Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich for 2018 en route to an NL-best 96 win season. However, the team fell to the Dodgers in a closely contested seven-game series. It was clear that the Brew Crew’s biggest weakness was the lack of solid starting pitching, aside from Jhoulys Chacin. While the best bullpen in baseball was able to mask their weakness, it would certainly be better to get some innings from the starting staff. This offseason, two of Milwaukee’s better starters, Wade Miley and Gio Gonzalez, are set to depart. This makes it even more urgent for the team to nab a starter. Look no further than Dallas Keuchel. The former Cy Young winner is set to hit the open market for the first time, with the likelihood of re-signing with the Astros slim. His market is one of the more interesting ones this free agent class; while he remains a valued commodity, it appears like he is every team’s fallback plan if they miss out on Patrick Corbin. This could give the Brewers a chance to sneak in. Based off of last year’s weak market, more free agents will be willing to take cheaper contracts early in free agency. Milwaukee could go after the reliable starter without breaking the bank. With Keuchel, the Brewers get an All Star who can eat up over 200 innings to help save their bullpen for October. Not to be overlooked is the 30-year old’s stellar 3.33 ERA in the postseason.
Atlanta Braves: Sign Charlie Morton
Following a surprising 90-win campaign and something like $40M in available payroll going into the offseason, Braves fans may have their sights set a bit higher than Morton. The team does have a shot at nabbing Harper or Machado, but it is much more realistic for them to go after moderate upgrades to supplement their homegrown core. In Morton, the Braves would be getting a mid-rotation starter who can guide the numerous young pitchers in the team’s organization. Morton would likely act as a one-year stopgap, but can still be counted on to give quality innings to a team that could use another reliable starter, especially with Anibal Sanchez set to hit the open market. There is a chance Morton returns to the Astros; in addition, he may retire, something he has hinted at in the past. However, the chance to join a team as talented as Atlanta may be too good to pass up. The 34-year-old, who had his career revived while with Houston, can still be counted on in the postseason, where he was a crucial part of the Astros title in 2017. On a team lacking experience, that could prove to be a game changer. And make no mistake: Morton’s career revival is no fluke. Last season he posted a 15-3 record to accompany a 3.13 ERA. In addition, he had the third-highest average velocity on his fastball in the American League, behind Chris Sale and Luis Severino. Any fears of regression could be eased by a move to the NL, where the lineups are less fearsome and he can pitch fewer innings, all while elevating the Braves staff to that of a top-tier club. In addition to starting pitching, expect Atlanta to pursue catching and relief help this winter.
Philadelphia Phillies: Sign Manny Machado
Yes, this does feel like a bit of a cop-out Manny Machado is a generational talent that every team in baseball would accept on their roster. However, his fit with the Phils simply makes too much sense. The third baseman turned shortstop had an eventful year, going from the cellar dwelling Orioles to the NL champion Dodgers, making plenty of headlines along the way. His antics, deemed by many to be immature and unsportsmanlike, have caused many front offices to remain cautious when it comes to giving the 26 year old a mega deal. In theory, this caution is admirable to baseball purists, but someone, and most likely more than one someone, will bite and make Machado a very spectacular offer. There may be no team in baseball better equipped to do so than the Phillies, who have more room to spend than any other squad in the league. Not only that, but they also have a need at third. Maikel Franco has been extremely erratic, and most believe the club is ready to pursue other options at the hot corner. In Machado, Philadelphia gets a middle of the order bat just entering his prime, and someone who can take them from a team with promise to a team to be feared. In 2018, he smacked 37 homers while hitting .297, helping to lead the Dodgers to the Fall Classic. He enters the offseason having just completed his age 25 season, with an impressive five All Star selections already under his belt. Machado represents not just the addition of a game changing slugger, but could signal the corner-turning moment of Philly’s rebuild. As good as the team is right now, it still feels as if they could use a true face of the franchise to lead their youth movement. Machado can be that and much more.
-Bryan Armetta
