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Roster of the Month: 2018 All-Free Agent Team

By Daniel R. Epstein

Posted on November 8, 2018

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This is the free agent class we’ve all been waiting for. Several big market teams reset their luxury tax threshold just to spend big (presumably) on this group of free agents. Other teams, such as the Braves and Phillies, purposely planned to emerge from their rebuilds just in time to harvest this bumper crop of available players. Even the collective bargaining agreement reflects the level of talent available this winter; it’s no accident that the luxury tax threshold increased more this year ($9M) than in any other year of the agreement ($2M each year).

In recognition of what will be a wild winter of free agent spending (hopefully), November’s Roster of the Month reflects the best possible 25-man team of current free agents, including players who have received qualifying offers. This does not necessarily reflect the best overall free agents, nor will they be the 25 highest paid free agents. Nelson Cruz, for example, probably won’t sign a long-term contract at the age of 38, but he’s definitely one of the best hitters on the market. Anyway, here’s the best 25-man roster of currently unemployed baseball players.

Lineup

1. LF Michael Brantley: Pessimists would view Brantley’s ten years in Cleveland as something of a disappointment. Just as he was getting good, injuries wiped out his age-29 and 30 seasons. Optimists would point out that his 19.5 fWAR is 34th best in team history dating back to 1901. Either way, he’s a coveted left fielder coming off a .309/.364/.468 season.
2. SS Manny Machado: Postseason histrionics aside, Machado is one of the most talented free agents ever. Since 2013, his first full season, he’s sixth in MLB with 29.0 fWAR. Whether he’ll be a mediocre shortstop or elite third baseman depends on where he lands, but either way, he’s one of the crown jewels of free agency. Oh yeah, and he’s only 26.
3. RF Bryce Harper: Of course, Machado isn’t the only 26-year-old superstar free agent. Ignore the .249 batting average; his MLB leading 130 walks paired with his .247 ISO tell how feared he truly is as a hitter. Soon, he’ll be a very rich one as well, as either he or Machado (or both) should set a new record for the largest free agent contract in baseball history.
4. DH Nelson Cruz: Unlike Harper and Machado, Cruz won’t sign a huge contract. As someone creeping up on 40 who can barely field any position, he may only get a one or two year deal. There’s no doubting his hitting ability though. He averaged 40.6 home runs per year over the last five seasons. That will certainly appeal to a contending AL club on a short contract.
5. 1B Daniel Murphy: Yes, he can play second base, but it’s probably best if he mostly sticks to first. After leading the NL in doubles each of the past two years, his production slipped a little in 2018, partially due to injuries. Nevertheless, his 110 wRC+ last year was better than the first base production of all but ten teams. He should have no trouble finding gainful employment.
6. 3B Josh Donaldson: In spite of injuries, Donaldson is still 1) an excellent hitter coming off a 119 wRC+ season, and 2) a very good defensive third baseman. Yeah, he’s going to be 33-years-old, but when healthy, he’s one of the best all-around third basemen in the game.
7. C Yasmani Grandal: OK, so he got benched in the postseason for the second straight year. Big deal. He was still second in MLB with 3.6 fWAR at his position, and deserves to get paid handsomely. Whether or not he actually will get paid is another matter entirely.
8. CF A.J. Pollock: Through May 14, Pollock hit .293/.349/.620. Then he got hurt and didn’t come back until July. After his return, he slumped to .236/.297/.407. He’s still an excellent player when healthy, but he’s only accumulated 500 plate appearances in a season once in his career. If he puts his injury history behind him, he could be a free agent steal for some team. If not, a multi-year contract will get ugly pretty quickly.
9. 2B Jed Lowrie: Lowrie peaked at the right time, setting career highs in home runs (23) and walks (78). He also made his first All-Star Team in 2018. In his career, he went from Houston to Oakland to Houston to Oakland. If history means anything, he’ll be an Astro again. Do they need any help at second or third base in Houston? Maybe not.

Bench

• IF/OF Marwin Gonzalez: Many of the best teams carry a supersub, such as Kiké Hernandez on the Dodgers, Brock Holt on the Red Sox, and Ben Zobrist on the Cubs. Gonzalez has been exactly that for the Astros. The switch-hitter played every position except catcher and pitcher in 2018 while providing roughly average offense.
• OF Nick Markakis: Call him Mr. Consistency (actually don’t; that’s a terrible nickname). Markakis played at least 155 games in eleven of the past twelve years. Last year’s 114 wRC+ is half tick above his 109 career average, so the soon-to-be 35-year-old isn’t slowing down just yet.
• OF Andrew McCutchen: No, McCutchen isn’t an MVP-caliber player anymore. However, he still produces offense about 20% better than league average, and he’s probably fine as a corner outfielder. Hard to believe, but he only just turned 32. He’s not a star at this point in his career, but he’s in the middle of a very nice second act.
• 3B Mike Moustakas: No one was hurt more by last year’s slow free agent market than Moustakas. He turned down a $17.4M qualifying offer, then slinked back to Kansas City for just $6.5M. At least he can’t be anchored with the qualifying offer again. Having hit 66 home runs over the last two years, he ought to fare better this time around.
• C Wilson Ramos: Guess who was the best hitting catcher in MLB last year? It wasn’t J.T. Realmuto, Buster Posey, or even Yasmani Grandal. Ramos led all catchers in wRC+ (131), batting average (.306), and slugging percentage (.487). At 31-years-old, he’s a legitimate star behind the plate.

Rotation

1. LHP Patrick Corbin: Hey GMs, raise your hand if you need a 29-year-old southpaw coming off a 200 inning season with 246 strikeouts? Huh, apparently all 30 GMs put their hands in the air. Corbin’s 2.47 FIP was third best in baseball last year, trailing only Jacob deGrom and Trevor Bauer among qualified starters. Expect him to be the highest paid pitcher of this free agent class (now that Clayton Kershaw signed an extension).
2. LHP Dallas Keuchel: Keuchel, the 2015 AL Cy Young winner, accumulated 18.1 fWAR over the last five years. His fastball only averages 90 MPH and he doesn’t amass tons of strikeouts, but he’s among the best at preventing hard contact. He yielded just a 4.5% barrel rate in 2018, compared to a league average of 6.1%. He’s set to be paid for amassing innings, too.
3. RHP Charlie Morton: From 2008-15, Morton got along just fine as a back-end starter, thank you very much. He struck out 15.8% of opposing hitters or just 6.3 per nine innings. Since then, he turned into a power pitcher who averages 96 MPH on his fastball. From 2016-18, his strikeout numbers jumped to 27.7% of batters faced and 10.4 K/9. At age-35, he should receive a short contract with high annual value.
4. LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu: Ryu has pitched superbly for the Dodgers since 2013, if not all that often. Injuries limited him to just 213 2/3 innings over the last four years. In 2018, he dazzled with a 1.97 ERA and 3.00 FIP in 15 starts. The Dodgers tendered him a qualifying offer, and it’s very possible he accepts.
5. LHP J.A. Happ: After his midseason trade from the Blue Jays to the Yankees, Happ’s ERA improved from 4.18 to 2.69. There’s nothing wrong with that, except that his peripherals actually got worse. His FIP was better in Toronto (3.87 vs. 4.18) as was his strikeout rate (27.4% vs. 24.4%). When it’s all said and done, Happ is still the same mid-rotation starter he’s always been, but at age-36 it’s probably best not to offer too long of a contract.

Bullpen

• LHP Zach Britton: From 2014-16, Britton was arguably the best reliever in baseball. His devastating sinker induced nearly every batter to strikeout or settle for a ground ball. His 73.0% ground ball rate in 2018 was still way above the MLB average of 45.1%, but the strikeouts don’t come quite as readily these days. There’s still plenty to like about a lefty ground ball specialist, and he should have lots of suitors.
• RHP Jeurys Familia: Right-handed hitters had no fun against Familia last year, batting just .192/.267/.228 with a .229 wOBA. He threw at least 70 innings out of the bullpen for the fourth time in five years, and consistency is a rare asset among relievers.
• RHP Craig Kimbrel: It might be time to talk about Kimbrel as a future Hall of Famer. With a minimum of 500 innings pitched, he’s the all-time record holder in strikeout percentage (41.6%). He’s second all-time in FIP (1.96) and third in ERA (1.97), and the pitchers above him all played more than 100 years ago. We’re witnessing one of the greatest relievers ever, and he’s still got plenty left in the tank as he approaches his age-31 season.
• LHP Andrew Miller: Not long ago, Miller was supposed to be the prototype modern relief pitcher. He wasn’t necessarily a closer and he could throw multiple innings, so he would lock down the seventh and eight innings if needed. 2018 didn’t go as planned, as his fastball velocity dropped to 93.6 MPH (it had been 95.4 MPH in 2016). He still gets plenty of strikeouts though and would be a nice addition to any bullpen.
• RHP Adam Ottavino: Very quietly, Ottavino emerged as one of the best relief pitchers in baseball last year. His 2.0 fWAR tied for sixth best among relievers. Only Josh Hader, Edwin Diaz, and Dellin Betances struck out more batters in relief, and he surrendered just two home runs in 34 1/3 innings at Coors Field.
• RHP David Robertson: Robertson has been a consistent, durable reliever for more than a decade. He threw at least 60 innings each year going back to 2010, and he shows no signs of slowing down. At age-33, his 2.97 FIP and 32.2% strikeout rate were near matches for his career averages of 2.81 and 32.4%.

-Daniel R. Epstein