What Cano/Diaz Trade Means for the New York Mets
Of late, the New York Mets haven’t been very aggressive in trades and free-agent acquisitions. With a new general manager at the helm, though, that seems to be changing.
On December 1, the Mets acquired Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz, and $20 million for Jay Bruce, Anthony Swarzak, Jarred Kelenic, Justin Dunn, and Gerson Bautista. In doing so, they unloaded veterans who underperformed recently, though notably with injuries as possible confounding factors. They also took on Cano, an aging superstar, and Diaz, last year’s saves leaders.
What are reasonable expectations for the “Amazins?” heading into 2019 with this roster revamp in mind? How relevant are the NY Mets in the National League and in baseball at large?
Keeping with the theme of aggressiveness, the team may not yet be done pursuing big-name free agents. Reportedly, the Mets have spoken with the Cleveland Indians about Corey Kluber. They’ve also reportedly reached out to the Marlins about J.T. Realmuto.
Having Kluber as a part of one a one-two-three punch with Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard has its clear appeal. Of course, it doesn’t address the team’s hitting woes, and deGrom’s record from 2018 can attest that they are substantial. Realmuto’s presence in the lineup would be a significant upgrade, especially from a Travis d’Arnaud/Kevin Plawecki platoon. Oddly enough, he might help the Mets in the steals department as well. True, Realmuto’s stolen bases numbers were down in 2018, but with only Amed Rosario swiping more than 10 bases last season, however, it couldn’t hurt to have a catcher with some mobility.
At this stage, Kluber and Realmuto are theoretical acquisitions. In terms of done deals, Cano is the centerpiece of the winter. The Mets will have him under contract until 2024, when he’ll be 40. They’ll also owe him $100 million over those five seasons—discount and all.
Statistically, there is room for optimism with Cano. In only 80 games played and despite a PED suspension and a wrist injury, he managed 10 HR and 50 RBI last season. Career-wise, he’s a .304 hitter with 300+ HR to his credit. Prior to 2018, he also had played 150 or more games in 11 consecutive seasons.
In recent years, however, Cano’s batting average and OPS have dipped. Granted, having .280 as a nadir in 2017 is nothing to sneeze at. A high mark of only 107 strikeouts in 2015 is likewise encouraging. On the other hand, at age 36, there’s also a risk of more pronounced decline due to age. Cano’s recent PED suspension comes with its own uncertainty. What if Cano tests positive again? Even if he doesn’t, how likely is it he will live up to the expectations of a 5-year/$100 million player?
Perhaps for the Mets, it’s not even about performance as much as signaling to other players a willingness to spend and make deals—current Mets included. Whatever the outcome with Cano, GM Brodie Van Wagenen has evidenced a desire to make a big splash through acquisitions. What’s more, he’s evidently OK with sacrificing the potential value of minor-league players to do so. Since there’s no guarantee with any of them, it may be worth their forfeiture.
Even if Robinson Cano is the face of this deal, though, Edwin Diaz may be the better value. For one, he’s some 12 years younger than Cano. He also comes off a season in 2018 marked by truly elite stats. Diaz’s 57 saves were easily tops in Major League Baseball. The underlying numbers aren’t bad, either. 124 Ks over 73.1 innings pitched. A 1.96 ERA with a 0.79 WHIP to go with it. In truth, the reduction in WHIP may be yet more significant. Strikeouts notwithstanding, Diaz only walked 17 batters in 2018 compared to 32 over 66 IP in 2017.
Then again, the probability of Diaz finding similar success in 2019 is slim. Relief pitching is notoriously volatile, and the save opportunities might not be plentiful on a Mets team that has two winning seasons in its last 10.
Additionally, it’s not like there’s a scarcity of relief pitching on the market. There are numerous free agents with closer experience yet unclaimed, including Andrew Miller, Cody Allen, Craig Kimbrel, David Robertson, and Zach Britton. None of them possessed Diaz’s form from last year, but none of them come with the same strings attached either. Was Diaz’s acquisition worth Cano’s salary and sending away those five players? It’s hard to see how it was.
At the same time, as a Mets fan, I get it. Aside from their season getting to the World Series and the subsequent one, the last decade has been a disastrous one for the team. The Sandy Alderson era unfortunately saw David Wright’s performance fall far short of expectations and may yet see Yoenis Cespedes fail to live up to his contract.
With Atlanta acquiring Josh Donaldson, Philadelphia picking up Jean Segura, and Washington getting Patrick Corbin, too, there’s a sense the NY Mets needed to at least keep pace. That they may have done this and more by getting Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz is therefore encouraging. A penchant for injuries and the Wilpons be damned. There’s yet room for optimism.
This is not to say the Mets don’t have lingering issues, hence why one’s optimism should be guarded. The rest of the bullpen after Diaz was abysmal last season. Todd Frazier missed a fair amount of time and struggled to a .213 batting average. Michael Conforto, despite being reasonably productive in terms of power and runs batted in, lacked consistency. And who knows if players like Brandon Nimmo might not be shipped off to acquire additional talent?
The New York Mets should improve on their 77 – 85 record from 2018 and stand a good chance to post their first winning season since 2016. Even so, that may not be able to win them the NL East, or even qualify for the postseason. The Nationals, even with the probable departure of Bryce Harper, are projected by Fangraphs to win the division. In the National League, the Dodgers, Cubs, Cardinals and Braves figure to be in the mix as well—and others might yet surprise.
In all, the Mets have gotten better with the additions of Cano and Diaz. We should hold off talk of a playoff run in 2019, however, and wait to see if going all in on this season yields sustained success over the long term.
-Joe Mangano
