Are The San Diego Padres Good Yet?
The San Diego Padres last appeared in the World Series in 1998. The last time they even appeared in the playoffs was a 2006 NLDS loss to the Cardinals three games to one. It’s now been five years since that 2014 offseason when the Padres went “all in” by acquiring Craig Kimbrel, Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Will Meyers, James Shields, and Derek Norris and here’s a little reminder of how well that went.
After that 2015 season the Padres went into full rebuild mode, trading off the veterans they had acquired for an impressive haul of prospects that quickly transformed San Diego’s farm system into one of the best in the Majors. Now entering the 2019 season, many of the prospects in the Padres’ system have reached the big leagues and shown us some of their potential.
Although they are likely a year or two away from their true competitive window, now seems like a fair time to ask for the first time in quite a few years, are the Padres good yet?
We’ll stick with position players for now as young pitchers tend to be a bit more volatile and difficult to project then young position players so it would be tricky to say exactly what they’ll provide this season. We’re also going to skip over Eric Hosmer, Wil Meyers, and Ian Kinsler as they’re veterans who provide a relatively known value to the team, for better or worse (we could have a separate conversation about how the Padres will need to be better about signing veterans to supplement their core but let’s save that for another day). That leaves us with five players projected to be in the Opening Day lineup for the Padres who represent the next wave of talent in San Diego.
Infield and Catcher
Padres fans got their first introduction the the 21 year old short stop near the end of last season and the 2019 season will be their first full dose of the contact focused middle infielder. The young shortstop has been an absolute on-base machine in AAA. With a .296 average and a .397 on base percentage in AAA, Urias has shown the ability to get on base that can be crucial to a young team like the Padres, especially in this era of high power low contact offenses. Urias’ high OBP can be largely attributed to his great eye at the plate, illustrated by his 12.6% walk rate last year.
Although his ability to get on base seems to be at an elite level, Urias has yet to display a huge amount of power, hitting only 8 home runs in AAA last season. However he did hit 30 doubles last season, which shows a certain amount of pop in his bat that may develop as he gets older.
On the defensive end, as a shortstop, Urias projects as less than average according to most scouts. In fact he was expected to move over to second base in the 2019 season, which seemed a better fit for his defensive ability. the Padres signing of Ian Kinsler this offseason has seemingly ensured that Urias will stay at short for the time being. The Padres will soon have to decide if Urias’ on base skills are as valuable as a second baseman, a position which provides ;more overall offensive value, as they are at shortstop.
One of the best products of the San Diego rebuild so far, Austin Hedges has cemented himself as one of the best defensive catchers in baseball over the last few seasons. Hedges was second in the league defensive runs saved with 12 runs saved above average. His pitch framing skills are also at an elite level, ranking 4th last season in framing runs saved with 9 runs above league average.
One area where Hedges regressed last season was in controlling the running game. Last season Hedges caught just 13 would-be base stealers while allowing 45 stolen bases, a step back from his previous year’s 26 runners caught and 45 stolen bases allowed. This change could likely be a result of the small increase in his pop time (the time between when a catcher receives the ball and when he gets it to the second baseman). Austin Hedges had a pop time in 2017 of 1.90 seconds, first in baseball. In 2018 his pop time jumped up to 1.97 seconds which was 12th. This serves as a friendly reminder of just how small the gap is between the best of the best and the middle of the pack when it comes to Major League catchers. A .07 second increase in poptime contributed to the doubling of stolen bases allowed by the young catcher. If Hedges can shed that half a second of pop time again next season, he could return to his previous levels of run control.
Hedges has yet to make a lasting impact with his bat, hitting just .231 with a .282 OBP last season. However his 14 home runs and .429 SLG do make him somewhat of a standout when it comes to power from the catcher position. If Hedges can increase his on base ability while maintaining his current power and elite defensive ability, he could well become one of the best catchers in baseball. Given that he’s entering his age 26 we could just be entering Austin Hedges prime years.
Outfielders
Reyes played in just 86 games for the Padres last season, but in that short time he provided another promising glimpse in the teams youth movement. Hitting .280 with a .340 OBP and 16 homeruns in just 285 plate appearances, Reyes showed that he is capable of being a huge source of production at the big league level despite being just 23 years old. While his BABIP of .345 is due to regress a good deal, Reyes hits the ball so hard he’s likely to continue to see a relatively large BABIP. In his 86 games last season, the young outfielder had a whopping 46.7% hard hit ball rate, leading to an average exit velocity of 92.3 MPH. It’s clear that Reyes is hitting the cover off the ball but he will have to improve on his 49.2% groundball rate if he is going to take his offensive game to the next level.
Reyes struggled quite a bit in the outfield last season posting a UZR (a metric on fangraphs which combines a fielder’s range, arm, and errors committed into one number) of -4.4 runs saved. Meaning that Reyes cost his team runs while playing the outfield. This is likely due to Reyes’ difficulty in making less than routine plays in the outfield. While the 23 year old completed 99% of “routine” catches, he only completed 83% of “likely” plays and 25% of even odds plays as determined by fangraphs. While these metrics are based on a very small sample size, it seems that Reyes will be a bat first outfielder with the ability to play consistent if unspectacular defense in one of the corner positions.
Two seasons ago Manuel Margot seemed like one of the most exciting young outfielders in baseball. That season Margot hit .263 with a .313 OBP and a .409 Slugging percentage while stealing 17 bases and playing absolutely elite defense in centerfield with a UZR of 6 runs above average. I mean sure he wasn’t Mike Trout but that is a really good first season of professional baseball! Unfortunately, Margot built on none of that success in 2018, regressing in just about every category.
Offensively Margot dropped to a much more modest .245 AVG .292 OBP .384 SLG. The drop in OBP is especially concerning as Margot will always be a player who will rely on his on base ability to provide offensive value to the team. Some of that regression may be a bit of bad luck for Margot, as his BABIP dropped 28 points in 2018 from .309 to .281 despite his exit velocity and launch angle both increasing. If Margot continues to improve his exit velocity, his BABIP will likely increase closer to his 2017 level, although his true offensive talent probably lies somewhere between those seasons.
Margot stole 6 fewer bases in 2018 than he did in 2017, and was caught stealing 3 more times. Overall his running game production dropped from a value of 1 run above average to -1.1 runs below average. This despite the fact that his running speed was identical each season at a very respectable 29.4 ft/sec. Given Margot lost no speed between seasons, his decrease in value on the basepaths is likely due to poorer decision making on the basepaths, a flaw that will likely correct itself over time as the 24 year old outfielder collects more experience in the big leagues.
By far the most concerning regression for Margot was in his defense. Margot went from an elite 6.0 UZR to a very average 1.0. Without playing elite defense Margot isn’t much more than a fringe MLB player so it is essential that Margot bounceback in 2019 with a strong defensive season. That turn around for Margot may be easier than most would expect. Margot’s decrease in defensive output last season was almost entirely due to his apparent difficulty in making easier defensive plays. Margot made only 66% of the plays deemed by Fangraphs to be likely plays (this metric is basically based on the percentage of the time a ball hit to that spot is caught by the defender). However, Margot made whopping 30% of the catches deemed unlikely, a 10% increase over his 2017 season. Meaning that if Margot can make the easier plays in the outfield with more consistency and maintain his remarkable ability to make the difficult plays he could have an even better season in 2019 than he did in 2017.
The old man of the Padres outfield at a borderline decrepit 26 years old, Renfroe showed his ability to hit for power last season by hitting 26 home runs with a .504 slugging percentage. Renfroe has not shown a great contact ability so far hitting just .248 last season, meaning that Renfroe will have to improve on his 6% walk rate in order to become more of a well rounded offensive threat. Renfroe could also look to improve his contact ability on pitches in the zone, he connected on just 70% of the pitches he swung at that were in the zone. If Renfroe can improve his on base ability, either by improving his walk rate or by improving his contact ability in the zone, his power should make him a middle of the lineup presence for the Padres.
Defensively, Renfroe seems to be an average to below average fielder with a -0.8 UZR. However there is some sign that he may be capable of being a stronger corner outfield defender. Renfroe made 41% of catches that were unlikely and even made 9% of plays deemed remote. The problem is that he only made 63% of the catches that he was likely to make. If Renfroe can increase his consistency on the easier plays, he could become a solid and reliable corner outfield defender capable of the occasional jaw dropping play.
So are the Padres good?
I started this whole process with a very simple question in mind, are the Padres good yet? The safe answer is also the most boring one, the Padres have a lot of young potential and while they may be better this season than last, they are not a playoff contender yet. But, what the Padres have is a ton of young players who are all one developmental step away from being good players, not to mention the eminent arrival of top prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. who could be the superstar that ties the whole team together. So why couldn’t they all take those steps together in 2019 and give the Dodgers a real run for their money in the NL West this season? The Braves jumped ahead in their contention projections last season, could the Padres do the same? It’s never a good idea to bet on 6 or 7 young players all progressing towards their true potential in one season, but it is definitely possible.
So, in short, are the Padres good yet? No. But maybe? Probably not. But the pieces are all there.
