The Future of Nolan Arenado
After a successful 2018 season going 91-72, the Colorado Rockies are looking to replicate and dominate in 2019. Colorado had a chance to win their first NL West division title since entering the Major Leagues as an expansion team back in 1993, but lost Game 163 to the Los Angeles Dodgers. There are still goals to reach.
The pitching staff looked healthy and was effective for a change both at home and on the road. The offense lived up to expectations and came together nicely throughout the season. The only issue now how the Rockies are going to keep their solid young core intact and build on it in ways that will get them over the top.
On Friday, January 11th, second baseman D.J. LeMahieu signed a two-year contract with the New York Yankees, likely ending (not officially) the Manny Machado sweepstakes in the Bronx. The week before, Colorado prepared for LeMahieu to sign elsewhere by adding 1B/2B Daniel Murphy and they do have some prospects who could also help fill the void.
Although he is not a free agent, the Rockies biggest concern moving forward should be keeping superstar third baseman Nolan Arenado.
Arguably one of the top true third basemen in the league, Nolan Arenado is very much in Colorado’s long term plans. Arenado, 27, is a six year veteran and a six-time Gold Glove Award recipient with four consecutive All-Star selections and four consecutive Silver Slugger Awards. Nolan recorded 130 or more runs batted in for three straight seasons from 2015-2017 (110 in 2018), he’s hit more homers than any third baseman since 2015 and he averages 41 doubles a year. Despite the dip in batting average throughout the major leagues, Arenado managed a career .291/.346/.539 slash line in 2018.
The only factor that could hurt Nolan’s case as the top third baseman in baseball are the home/road splits. Typically the thin air in the Rocky Mountains will favor the hitters. Rockies hitters are the ones playing 81 games in Denver, so sometimes it’s seen as a handicap when projecting performance elsewhere or measuring up Rockies to the rest of the league. While Arenado’s splits at home clearly are better, the road numbers aren’t too bad. There was speculation about LeMahieu’s splits as well, but now he’ll be hitting in Yankees Stadium for half the year, another hitter’s ballpark.
Going into his contract season, Nolan Arenado is negotiating what seems to be a record-setting salary in arbitration. He could be looking at around $25 million for the year which would shatter his previous 2 year/$29 million contract he signed in 2017, making him a free agent in 2020 at the age of 29. He’ll be looking for some security and will be expecting a large sum of money per year. Colorado is unsure if they’ll be able to afford him and still be able to retain the rest of the talent they already have.
There are plenty of teams still looking to solve their problems third base and they wouldn’t pass up the opportunity to negotiate with the two-time Rawlings Platinum Glove Award winner. His highly competitive nature and enticing team leadership skills do match with his abilities on and off the field that represent an exemplary figure to lead a professional sports team. Nolan is too valuable to pass up because of money in a day and age that the 10-year contracts are dying. Annual raises for less years seems to be a more suitable option for ball clubs after witnessing how long term contracts have severely damaged them and slowed down their processes to build a team around them.
The Yankees seem like a great destination for Arenado, and are no doubt hoping to reunite him with former teammates Troy Tulowitzki, Adam Ottavino, and DJ LeMahieu, but they might be more inclined to wait a year and try and sign Nolan than to part with a haul of prospects to get him from Colorado now.
