Khris Davis Sells Himself Short
Khris Davis doesn’t care about the money. We’re conditioned to interpret this as a positive attribute, as if getting paid full market value and being a winner are mutually exclusive. They aren’t, and Davis is making a huge mistake for himself and his fellow ballplayers.
First, some context: MLB.com’s Jane Lee reported that Davis is looking for an extension to remain with the Oakland A’s. Nothing wrong with that! The slugging DH will be a free agent this coming winter, so he’s a likely extension candidate, especially if he’s happy in Oakland. Good for him. The problem is this:
“$16 million, this is the top for me. I don’t want more than that. I’ll probably have to take a cut, and that’s fine, as long as I’m here,” (Davis said.)
Jane Lee, MLB.com
How much of a cut? Davis told MLB.com he would be willing to settle for as little as $10 million per year, so long as he’s guaranteed at least two more years to take him through the 2021 season.
There are very important reasons why Davis settling for two years and $20 million would be disastrous, and what the hell is wrong with the A’s for not agreeing immediately? Before that, we need to establish Davis’ actual value.
Khrush
To those of us still desensitized from the steroid era, Davis’ 48 home runs last year might not seem like that big of a deal. However, that’s five more than anyone else in baseball could manage. J.D. Martinez was second with 43, and he played as a right-handed hitter in Fenway Park. Davis calls Oakland-Alameda County Stadium his home, with a park factor of 93. That means the ballpark suppresses offense 7% below league average.
Here is a list of all the Athletics players to ever hit more dingers in a season than Davis’ 48:
- Jimmie Foxx– 58 in 1932 (for the Philadelphia Athletics)
- Mark McGwire– 52 in 1996 and 49 in 1987
That’s the whole list. With 133 homers since 2016, Davis is the most prolific slugger in baseball. Only Giancarlo Stanton (124) and Nelson Cruz (119) come remotely close.
To be fair, there’s much more to baseball than home runs, and Davis is not very well-rounded. He strikes out too much and doesn’t walk enough. His defense is close to nonexistent; he only played three games in left field that were not in a National League park with no DH. They were at the beginning of the season: March 31-April 2.
Even so, as a one-dimensional player he’s still a valuable asset. Home runs are a fantastic dimension to have, if you’re only going to have one, and he’s been worth 2.3, 2.5, and 2.6 fWAR over the past three seasons. The only designated hitters with higher fWAR last year were Martinez and Stanton.
Value of Khrushing
With his on-field value having been established, what’s that worth in actual currency? This year, it’s $16.5 million. That’s how much he agreed to for the coming season, avoiding arbitration in his final year of team control.
The salary is the highest ever paid to an A’s player, breaking Eric Chavez‘ record of $12.5 million from 2010. At the same time, it’s just tied for the 60th highest salary in baseball in 2019. When Manny Machado, Bryce Harper, Dallas Keuchel, and Craig Kimbrel finally sign, Davis will be tied for 64th.
Looking at positional value, here are the highest paid designated hitters in baseball:
| DH | 2019 Salary (millions) | Year contract was signed |
| Albert Pujols | 28 | 2012 |
| J.D. Martinez | 23.75 | 2018 |
| Edwin Encarnacion | 21.67 | 2017 |
| Shin-Soo Choo | 21 | 2013 |
| Khris Davis | 16.5 | 2019 |
| Nelson Cruz | 14 | 2019 |
| Mark Trumbo | 13.5 | 2017 |
Let’s ignore the Pujols and Choo contracts. These are the end stages of long-term deals, and neither player resembles the player they were when they originally signed.
Even excluding Pujols and Choo, some of these salaries are a little silly now. Trumbo isn’t a very good player anymore. Encarnacion isn’t worth that kind of salary these days either. However, when they originally signed their contracts, the story was different. Here’s a a look at salary compared to fWAR when these players originally signed:
| DH | 2019 Salary (millions) | fWAR, the season before signing contract | $/WAR (millions) |
| J.D. Martinez | 23.75 | 3.8 | 6.25 |
| Edwin Encarnacion | 21.67 | 3.9 | 5.56 |
| Khris Davis | 16.5 | 2.6 | 6.35 |
| Nelson Cruz | 14 | 2.5 | 5.60 |
| Mark Trumbo | 13.5 | 2.1 | 6.43 |
This averages out to $6.04 million/fWAR. We’ll round that down to an even $6 million. Davis actually exceeded the average with his current one year contract, but not by much.
Maybe we can’t expect another 48 home run season from Davis, but we can predict him to maintain roughly 2.5 fWAR. That’s about what he’s done in each of the past three seasons. By these calculations, he should fetch an average annual value of $15 million.
Why This Matters
Should we really care how much Davis makes? Why is it anyone else’s business if he wants to settle for $10 million per season (a 39% pay cut from $16.5)?
Should the A’s accept his proposed two year, $20 million extension, his $/fWAR drops from 6.35 to 3.85 million. That’s bad business, and it reduces the comparable value for other DH’s considerably. This is not unlike when someone in your neighborhood sells their house to a low-ball offer, and then the property value of your own home drops as a result.
With Davis’ $/fWAR now at 3.85, the overall market for a DH declines from $6.04 to $5.54 million. In other words, he’s taking a half million dollars out of the pockets of any other DH that hits free agency or negotiates their own extension over the next few years.
Let’s put this on a normal human scale. Think about your current salary, whatever it may be. Imagine that you’re up for renegotiation, or it’s time to request a raise. Maybe you’re switching employers, and looking for better compensation. Now, imagine the person who did this just before you, who has the same job you have, just took a 39% pay cut. Worse yet, imagine you accepted the 39% cut, and now other people in line behind you have to negotiate their own salary. Disquieting, isn’t it?
As for the A’s…
It gets worse. The fact that Davis stated his two year, $20 million request in a public interview implies that the A’s declined his offer already! Oakland is a notoriously frugal franchise, but when the best hitter on the team offers to take a 39% pay cut, they should trip over themselves to sign before he comes to his senses! Instead, they’re playing coy with an unbelievably generous offer.
This is exactly why teams don’t deserve a “home discount” from players. First of all, no team in the history of baseball has ever given a player a single penny more than they had to.
Second, while most players are measured by thousands and a select few by millions, all teams are measured by billions. This even includes the A’s, who’ve cried poverty for decades. Current owners Lewis Wolff and John Fisher purchased the team for $180 million in 2005. Today, Statista estimates the franchise’s value at $1.02 billion.
Major League Baseball was a $10.3 billion revenue industry in 2018. Yes, there are expenses as well, so of course that’s not all profit. Furthermore, the A’s profit less than, say, the Yankees or Dodgers. Nevertheless, much of that money is distributed to all 30 teams. It’s simply unfathomable that the franchise doesn’t rake in enough money to pay Khris Davis $20 million over two years.
If that is indeed the case, Wolff and Fisher should sell the franchise immediately and collect their $1.02 billion. Clearly, they are either unwilling or unable to swim in the deep end of the MLB talent pool. They don’t deserve the life preserver Khris Davis as thrown them, which they have inexplicably declined.
