Hot Stove

Roster of the Month: 2019 Minor League Contracts

By Daniel R. Epstein

Posted on March 4, 2019

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Something is wrong with baseball.

In case you haven’t noticed, teams have successfully repressed player values. The signs are everywhere. The average MLB salary declined from 2017 to 2018 despite record revenues. Prominent free agents have a hard time finding contracts that meet their value. Pre-free agency players are accepting below-market extensions to avoid the open market. Teams are offering players nearly identical deals, which is a big problem. Perfectly cromulent arbitration-eligible players are flat-out released.

Sure, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado signed big contracts, but they’re Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.Anyone who’s not a generational superstar should be worried. (Besides, the Harper and Machado markets didn’t develop as expected either.)

Yet another sign of the looming labor apocalypse is the prominence of minor league contracts. Several players thought to be of major league quality failed to receive a guaranteed major league job. Some of them went the whole winter without any offers at all until they received multiple minor league opportunities on the same day. Such is the theme of this Roster of the Month.

The following represents the best 25-man roster of players who signed minor league deals. Not all these guys necessarily deserved guaranteed major league contracts, but many of them did. Some of them won’t make a Major League roster out of Spring Training, but a lot of them will, because they shouldn’t have had to sign a non-guaranteed contract in the first place. (All singing info can be found at Roster Resource.)

Lineup

None of these players are perfect, but all have value in some capacity. A few of them have no business on this team at all.

1. RF Curtis Granderson, Miami Marlins: Granderson’s minor league contract was one of the most surprising. Yes, he turns 38 this month, but he slashed .242/.351/.431 last year, including a 119 wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
2. DH Mark Reynolds, Colorado Rockies: Reynolds hopes for a second stint in Colorado after posting an .803 OPS last year for the Nationals. His 27.2% strikeout rate was an improvement over his career average of 30.8%
3. LF Derek Dietrich, Cincinnati Reds: Dietrich’s wRC+ is 109, both for his career and the 2018 season. He has accumulated 4.7 fWAR since 2016, and plays several positions. Hard to believe none of the 30 MLB teams had a guaranteed roster spot for him, especially since he’s still controllable via arbitration in 2020.
4. 1B Lucas Duda, Minnesota Twins: Duda is just one year removed from a 30 home run season. Last year, he put up a 118 wRC+ against righties.
5. 2B Brad Miller, Los Angeles Dodgers: Miller hit 30 bombs two years ago, while posting roughly league-average offense in 2018. He has experience at nearly every infield and outfield position.
6. CF Cameron Maybin, San Francisco Giants: Given the Giants’ thin outfield, Maybin has a good chance of making the team. Even in his early 30s, he’s still a neutral defender in center (0 DRS in 2018) and above average in the corners (6 DRS in left field).
7. C Matt Wieters, St. Louis Cardinals: SB Nation named Wieters the 47th overall free agent entering the offseason. The Roster Resource tracker ranks him 62nd. In spite of this, he reportedly had only one offer of any kind, major or minor.
8. SS Jose Iglesias, Cincinnati Reds: Despite hitting towards the bottom of this fictitious batting order, Iglesias may be the biggest travesty of all. He averaged 1.9 fWAR per season over the last five seasons (not including 2014, which he missed due to injury), largely thanks to superb defense at shortstop. He’s 18th among MLB shortstops in fWAR since 2015, suggesting he’s a low-to-mid tier starter. In spite of this, no team offered him a guaranteed contract, even as a backup.
9. 3B Yangervis Solarte, San Francisco Giants: The Giants have four players on this roster, which tells us that 1) these players have a decent chance to make the team, 2) the Giants aren’t very good, and 3) the team isn’t investing in their roster. For his part, Solarte is a versatile defensive player and switch-hitter. We ranked him near the top of our utility player rankings just last year.

Bench

Any of these players should offer MLB bench-level quality.

• OF Melky Cabrera, St. Louis Cardinals: For as long as he’s kicked around the majors, it’s hard to believe Cabrera is only 34. He batted .280/.335/.420 in Cleveland last season.
• UI Logan Forsythe, Texas Rangers: Maybe Forstyhe just needed a change of scenery. His two year, $16 million contract with the Dodgers didn’t end well, but his OBP ascended to .356 in August and September after his trade to Minnesota.
• SS Adeiny Hechavarria, New York Mets: Hechavarria bounced between three teams last year, but ended it with playoff action as a Yankee. He won’t hit much, but he’s an excellent defensive shortstop. Those are hard to come by.
• C Devin Mesoraco, New York Mets: Mesoraco achieved a 92 wRC+ last year. League average for catchers was just 84.
• OF Gerardo Parra, San Francisco Giants: Parra achieved a .309/.369/.407 slash line against right-handed pitching. As it turns out, most pitchers (and people) are right-handed, so that’s a useful skill to have.

Rotation

Honestly, the rotation isn’t great. Most pitchers capable of starting every fifth day still received major league deals. Maybe the system hasn’t completely collapsed quite yet.

1. RHP Ervin Santana, Chicago White Sox: There’s no sugar coating Santana’s awful 2018 season. The 8.03 ERA and 7.94 FIP are eyesores on his otherwise impressive stat page. He injured his finger in Spring Training and never really got healthy. If he’s back to normal, he will be a solid mid-rotation starter.
2. LHP Francisco Liriano, Pittsburgh Pirates: Liriano doesn’t have strikeout stuff anymore, but he resurrected his career in Pittsburgh once before. The bullpen is also an option.
3. RHP Jason Hammel Texas Rangers: Hammel’s ERAs from his two years in Kansas City were 5.29 and 6.02, but the secondary stats like him a little better. His FIPs were 4.37 and 4.55, which is not far off from his career mark of 4.26.
4. RHP Josh Tomlin, Milwaukee Brewers: With -1.3 fWAR, Tomlin was the single worst pitcher in baseball last year. However, he still doesn’t walk anyone, and Milwaukee worked similar miracles a season ago with Wade Miley and Jhoulys Chacin.
5. RHP Drew Hutchison, New York Yankees: It was a bit surprising to see Hutchison resurface last year, though his average fastball dropped under 91 MPH. Still, if his 17% HR/FB regresses closer to his career average of 12.4%, he might stick around a little longer.

Bullpen

The coup de grace of the roster, this bullpen would probably rank somewhere around 20th compared to existing MLB relief corps.

• LHP Luis Avilan, New York Mets: Avilan is an experienced LOOGY who averaged 10.6 K/9 since 2016. Same side hitters batted .220/.304/.341 against him last year.
• RHP Tyler Clippard, Cleveland Indians: Clippard’s 11.1 K/9 last season matched his career high. He is the only pitcher in baseball with at least 67 appearances and 60 IP every year since 2010.
• LHP Dan Jennings, Los Angeles Angels: Jennings doesn’t match the prototype of the modern reliever, with tons of strikeouts and a blazing fastball. He gets batters out consistently nevertheless. His career ERA of 2.96 is largely thanks to a 55.4% ground ball rate.
• RHP Bud Norris, Toronto Blue Jays: In Norris’ first year as a full-time reliever, he struck out 10.5 K/9. While his 28 saves doesn’t really mean anything from a statistical standpoint, it does show that the Cardinals trusted him to finish games.
• RHP Carson Smith, Boston Red Sox: Back in 2015, Smith was one of the most promising young relievers in the game. The Red Sox traded for him the following winter, and he promptly tore his UCL, almost completely wiping out two seasons. He reemerged last year, only to suffer a shoulder injury in the dumbest way possible. If healthy, maybe he can pick up where he left off four years ago.
• RHP Nick Vincent, San Francisco Giants: With a 3.99 ERA and 3.75 FIP, Vincent is your standard, average middle reliever. Neither his strikeout nor walk numbers impress, but they’re not bad either. He’s a Pretty Decent Guy. Apparently, there’s not much market for players like that, even though every team needs them.