Chris Davis Has Been Bad, but Also Unlucky
Every human being has shared the same nightmare, though it may take different forms. Getting laughed at by your crush. Giving an important speech in the nude. Getting called on in fourth grade and not having the answer. The scenario varies but the theme is the universal: public humiliation.
This Chris Davis hitless streak is a living manifestation that nightmare. It was a slow burn last year, when he slashed .168/.243/.296. Now, his torture has become more acute, as he is 0-28 this season. Dating back to last September, he’s riding an 0-50 megaslump, breaking the MLB record for consecutive hitless at bats.
It’s worth remembering that, not very long ago, Davis was the very best in the world at hitting baseballs very far. He bashed 53 home runs in 2013, and 47 more in 2015, both of which led MLB.
Davis’ skills have abandoned him with unusual haste. Few of us can relate to being so superb at our profession, having reached the very pinnacle, and falling so quickly to punchline status. Even fewer of us could imagine doing so in the public eye, with every plate appearance scrutinized on TV, radio, and the Internet. The amount of professionalism it takes just to avoid collapsing into emotional jelly is incredible.
(Spare us all the inevitable, “He makes enough money, he deserves embarrassment!” takes. He’s not thinking about his paycheck in the batter’s box, and no amount of money can mitigate emotional torment on this scale.)
Perhaps the worst part of Davis’ 0-50 slide is that it’s undeserved. While he certainly hasn’t been a good hitter this year, he should’ve had at least one hit.
Unlucky
Going by Statcast’s expected batting average (xBA), here are the unluckiest hitters of the 2019 season:
| Player | BA | xBA | Difference |
| Franmil Reyes | .148 | .319 | -.171 |
| Jesse Winker | .103 | .265 | -.162 |
| Hunter Dozier | .111 | .265 | -.154 |
| Yonder Alonso | .138 | .262 | -.124 |
| Chris Davis | .000 | .119 | -.119 |
| Cesar Hernandez | .152 | .271 | -.119 |
| Jesus Aguilar | .111 | .230 | -.119 |
All of these players have sub-Mendoza Line batting averages, but they’ve all hit the ball hard enough to deserve better results. Chris Davis is tied for fifth. While his xBA of .119 is still putrid, he should’ve had a hit by now. He should’ve had 3.332 hits by now.
In fact, Davis’ exit velocity is actually well above average. Batted balls depart his lumber at an average of 91.3 MPH, well above the league norm of 87.4. He ranks 75th out of 315 players in exit velocity this season (minimum 10 batted ball events).
As it happens, Davis even has a sweet spot! He’s made solid contact with three pitches in “zone five” of the strike zone this year, which is middle-middle. The first one came on March 31 against Yankees pitcher J.A. Happ.
Davis hits the ball 102.0 MPH with a 32 degree launch angle. It travels 397 feet to left-center, where Brett Gardner tracks it down. In another ballpark, such as Camden Yards, this might have been a home run. The xBA for this kind of contact is .670.
On April 3, Davis got a cookie from Joe Biagini of the Blue Jays.
Davis smoked this line drive at 105.0 MPH with a 19 degree launch angle. Normally that’s a double, with an xBA of .680, but Billy McKinney was positioned perfectly, prolonging Davis’ hitless streak.
Yusmeiro Petit of the A’s gave him another opportunity to do damage on April 8.
This scorcher departed the bat at 103.5 MPH to the opposite field, with a launch angle of 18 degrees. Robbie Grossman retreats to the warning track, but hauls it in for the out. Again, this type of batted ball is usually a hit, with an xBA of .580.
While none of these line drives were guaranteed to find grass, at least one of them should’ve met dirt (carpet in Toronto?) rather than leather. Each had a greater than 50% chance of yielding a hit. There’s only a 4.4% chance that none of the the three would allow the batter to reach safely!
Of course, these were just three batted balls. Davis has hit 13 balls in play this season, each with some likelihood of becoming a hit. That he’s still hitless is cruel and unfortunate, even more than it is a reflection of skill.
Davis is not a good baseball player anymore; there is no doubt about it. But no one likes to be kicked when they’re down, and his batted ball luck has been dreadful. If any one of these had fallen in for a hit, we wouldn’t be discussing his record hitless streak, and he could have a modicum less humiliation.
There is no such thing as privacy on a major league diamond, but when you’re living out the “giving a speech naked” nightmare, even some underwear is a blessing.
-Daniel R. Epstein
