Joe Musgrove is a Bona Fide Cy Young Contender
Joe Musgrove isn’t the flashiest pitcher in baseball, he doesn’t throw the hardest or strike out the most guys, but he very well might give up the least amount of runs and he’s making an early name for himself as a Cy Young Contender.
In his last start on Saturday against the offensive powerhouse Dodgers, Musgrove brought a shutout into the 6th on only 79 pitches before being tagged for three hits and three runs in the 7th and letting the game slip away from him. But despite those three runs, Musgrove’s season ERA is still just 2.06 and he sports a sterling .97 WHIP.
From Baseball Savant, here are Musgrove’s game logs from this season so far:
Musgrove came to the Pittsburgh Pirates from the Houston Astros along with Colin Moran, Jason Martin, and Michael Feliz in the Gerrit Cole trade in the winter of 2018 and struggled some with injuries last season. He finished 2018, his third big league season, with his third straight ERA above 4 but he posted an elite 4.7% walk rate and there were flashes of something good.
Musgrove is without a doubt a student of the Astros’ teachings on the value of high spin rates on pitches. His fastball, which he throws on about a third of his pitches, is in the 87th percentile for the MLB in spin rate. That allows him to work it both up and down in the zone, something he does very effectively. Again, from Baseball Savant:
You can clearly see how much time Musgrove spends in and around the zone. This season, he’s followed up last years’ stellar walk rate with a still very good 5.5% rate.
In fact, the most encouraging thing about Musgrove’s start to the 2019 season is that it seems like its just a continuation of and improvement on the things he was doing well last year, not some early season, small sample statistical fluke.
For instance, last year, Musgrove posted a 45.5% ground ball percentage. This year, it’s 47.4%. Last year, he had a 1.79 walks per 9. This year, 1.80. Last year, 7.8 strikeouts per 9. This year 7.97.
Digging a little deeper, there are some other stats that indicate the Musgrove actually has some room to improve around the periphery in a way that may have a dramatic affect over a full year.
In 2018, Musgrove had a 5.1 barrel percentage against, meaning how often opposing hitters squared him up. This year, it’s 6.7%. Perhaps most importantly, last year he had an 86.8 mph average exit velocity against. This year, that number is 88.8 so it’s not like guys are dealing with cold weather and early season struggles and failing to hit him well- they’re just continuing to make good contact infrequently and typically into the ground.
The only damning statistical anomoly in Musgrove’s early season stretch is in HR rate. In 2018, Musgrove’s HR % was 10.1, which seems pretty high. This year, it’s 3.1%. He’s only surrendered 1 home run all season.
In a game that’s increasingly driven by power numbers and where players are happy to sacrifice strikeouts for dingers, being a pitcher that doesn’t give up homers seems like a pretty good plan.
All of these numbers don’t imply that Musgrove is a wolf in sheep’s clothing and that he’s actually a replacement level pitcher on a hot streak. Instead, it kind of seems like Musgrove, despite throwing consistently in the low 90s, which is notably slower than last year, has found what works for him and might be primed for a breakout year.
There’s definitely some value in zigging when everyone else zags and being a 2-seam, sinker guy in today’s game is a zig.
On Saturday night, Musgrove went up against Clayton Kershaw and out dueled him until the 7th. It sort of felt like Musgrove was claiming his place up there with the best in the sport. Maybe he was.
-Max Frankel
