Ace Pitchers Have Gone MIA to Start 2019
As of April 30, the wins leader in the National League is Zack Greinke, with five. This is no huge shock, as Greinke is a Cy Young award winner. Others in the top 10, based on their talent and/or supporting cast, are similarly plausible entries. Jake Arrieta? Cole Hamels? German Marquez? These pitchers are not altogether surprising to find at or near the top.
As of the same date, meanwhile, the ERA leader among starting pitchers in the National League is Zach Davies, who holds a 1.38 ERA over six starts. Others joining him among the top-ranked SPs likewise aren’t household names. Chris Paddack (1.91)? Joe Musgrove (2.06, though he may be a bona fide Cy Young contender)? Caleb Smith (2.17)? You’re lucky if you can name what teams each of those pitchers belongs to without looking. A strange assortment, indeed.
Curiously absent from the top-10 ERA list in 2019 are the ace pitchers who figured into 2018’s NL Cy Young race. Max Scherzer, despite amassing 54 strikeouts over 39.1 IP, owns a 1–3 record and a 4.12 ERA. Jacob deGrom, the eventual winner, has struggled to defend his crown thus far, posting a 4.85 ERA and 1.33 WHIP across five starts. Aaron Nola? A decidedly mediocre 5.68 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. These are not ace-like numbers.
In the American League, the wins leaders are a bit more confounding. Marco Gonzales, Tyler Glasnow, and Domingo German pace the league with five wins. Justin Verlander is present and accounted for with four but so is Andrew Cashner. In Cashner’s case, his four Ws are 40% of his team’s (Baltimore) total victories. Still, as deGrom can attest to from last season, wins can vary based on circumstances. Bullpen performance, luck, and run support also play a role in allowing starting pitchers to collect on their efforts.
Concerning the AL ERA leaders, meanwhile, and as with the National League, the returns have been yet alarming. Trevor Bauer (2.45) and 2018 Cy Young winner Blake Snell (2.54) appear to be in regular form. Others, on the other hand, do not. Corey Kluber? An unsightly 5.81 ERA and 1.68 WHIP, and now a broken arm that will certainly keep him out of action for a while. Carlos Carrasco owns a 5.86 ERA. Chris Sale (Chris Sale!) is 0–5 with a 6.30 ERA and 1.40 WHIP through six starts. This is more than just bad. It’s bizarre, as if we’ve stepped into an alternate universe.
So, what gives? To truly assess where each of these ace pitchers has gone awry, we’d have to go beyond the scope of just this article. After all, any number of factors can contribute to underwhelming statistical performance involving pitchers: BABIP, defensive performance, injuries, mechanical issues, park factors, quality of the opposition, weather, just to name a few. Besides, we’re not even through a quarter of the MLB regular season yet. With 20 or more starts left to make for most of these starters, there is ample time for baseball’s most talented arms to redeem themselves.
That said, how long will it be before some clubs start to worry about their traditionally more consistent starters? Throw in some dreadful bullpen numbers and fans will start inching closer to the proverbial panic button because the team’s overall win-loss record has suffered as a result. Boston’s (13–17, as of 4/30) pitching staff owns a 5.21 ERA, one of the worst averages in baseball. For a team coming off a World Series win, it’s disconcerting to say the least.
In the National League, Milwaukee’s staff, at a 4.92 clip, isn’t faring dramatically better, though their record and run differential are more in line with their postseason aspirations. The New York Mets are fortunate to even be above .500 with a 5.21 team ERA and a -19 run differential. Washington’s unmitigated disaster of a bullpen, alongside Scherzer’s struggles, could spell doom for a team with legitimate designs of reaching the playoffs even without Bryce Harper. Sooner or later, these squads and their aces will need to kick it into gear.
To reiterate, it’s still early in the 2019 campaign, and it’s not like top pitchers haven’t struggled to start before. As temperatures rise with the passing months and as notoriously slow starters round into form, several of the ace pitchers over whom we’re scratching our heads now may right the proverbial ship. In the meantime, however, the perceived importance of each trip to the mound is heightened and fans will continue to bite their nails out of trepidation. At least these struggles haven’t made for a boring first few weeks of the season.
