Finding the Next John Gant: The Chase Anderson Story
Up until about a month ago, being the next John Gant would not have been something that other Major Leaguers would have thought to strive for. I detailed last week how the pitcher on his third Major League organization and in his fourth big league year was finally an (well) above average Major Leaguer, but in a relief role.
I mentioned in the post how Gant’s was a relatively common route these days, with many of today’s premier relief options formerly middling starters. So with that in mind, let’s find the next guy currently battling through multi-inning starts who could become the next elite relief option when asked just to get a couple of outs.
Gant’s 2018 had some hints of a good pitcher. Making multiple appearances as both a starter and in relief roles, Gant managed a 3.47 ERA while striking out 7.5 per 9 innings and threw a fastball that averaged 93.3 mph. So who among 2019’s hurlers has managed the same performance across those 3 basic stats?
Well…nobody. But if we relax the thresholds a bit, we can find a full 2019 list of pitchers who have
- Made multiple appearances as both a starter and reliever,
- At least a 7.4 K/9
- Throw at least 92.5 mph
- An ERA that starts with a 3
Ready for the list? Here it is: Max Fried, Martin Perez, Chase Anderson.
Fried’s multiple appearances as a reliever are a bit of a misnomer since they both happened before his first start of the year as the Braves took advantage of the early season off days to fortify their bullpen with their prized left-hander. He also doesn’t fit the Gant mold because of his pedigree: a former first round pick and multiple-time Top 100 prospect.
Martin Perez might seem to fit the Gant mold a bit, but he’s in his 7th Major League season and is himself a multiple-time Top 100 prospect. He’s finding success this year with the Twins thanks to Jake Odorizzi‘s cutter. He’s a totally new pitcher thanks to the cutter and looks to be something of a mid-rotation starter for the first time in a few years.
Perez still has a half-season left to figure out who he is as this new cutter- happy starter, but the numbers seem to indicate that he could be a particularly good reliever with this new pitch if starting doesn’t work out for some reason.
Chase Anderson is a bit more interesting. He’s an enigma. On the one hand, he made 25 starts in 2017 to the tune of a 2.97 ERA. On the other, he’s never thrown 200 innings and each of his other seasons resulted in an ERA near (or above) 4. This year, it sits at 3.93. The Brewers, known for using their pitchers in somewhat unique ways, have allowed Chase Anderson to pitch 5 innings just twice in 6 starts. More often, they are using Anderson for something like 65-80 pitches, effectively going through the opponent’s batting order twice. He’s only pitched to 10 batters three times in a game this year.
Even with this level of protection, the numbers are still what they are. Anderson is still a roughly league average pitcher. He’s on pace to throw 90ish innings of league average ball. That doesn’t seem to be his best usage. He’s 31. This is who he is as a starter. The Brewers, or some other team, would be wise to see who he is as a reliever. In his relief appearances this year, he’s thrown roughly a half mile per hour harder. Would he be able to add to that if he trained for the short relief role?
Not every pitcher should strive to follow the John Gant career path, but for some, it could be the difference between average in one role vs elite in another. The Brewers are sitting in first place in the NL Central despite some injuries and ineffectivenss in their rotation. Will they embrace the bullpenning model that they did last year or will they add another true starter and shift Anderson to a shorter role? Either way, do not be surprised if we see Anderson dominating in a short-relief role sometime in the next 12 months.
-Sean Morash
