Exploring Shane Greene Trade Scenarios
It’s hard to find a more up-and-down career than that of Shane Greene. The 30-year old Tigers closer was initially a promising young starter for the Yankees, before being dealt as a part of the Didi Gregorious, Robbie Ray, three team trade with the Yankees and D-Backs. Following a putrid start in Motown – 6.44 ERA in 34 games – the team shunted him to the bullpen, where, naturally, he began to thrive.
This season, he enters the All-Star break as one of the best relief arms in the game, posting a 1.09 ERA and a WAR of 1.6 for a dismal Detroit squad, one that OTBB has been pretty critical of in the past (just check out the top three results here). While there are some doubts about the sustainability of his performance – including declining velocity and a FIP of 3.72 – it’s clear that Green, controllable through the 2021 season, will be highly sought after on deadline market.
Let’s take a look at some possible scenarios.
Boston Red Sox: Darwinson Hernandez (#3* BOS), Antoni Flores (#6 BOS), and Jaren Duran (#9 BOS)
Boston’s pen has been lambasted by pundits far and wide, blowing the second most saves in the majors. A refusal/inability to sign proven relievers is a central issue. So, the trade market seems necessary if Boston wants to satisfy its always-win-now fanbase.
But, but, but. Not only do the Red Sox suffer from one of the most depleted farm systems in the game, the majority of their best youngsters are pitchers. For a team like the TIgers, who are stocked with high-end young arms, it’s going to take a lot to get them to part with Greene. If the Sox want him, they’ll have to go with quantity over quality. That means holding onto infielders Triston Casas (#95 MLB) and Bobby Dalbec, their two best youngsters, while leaving everyone else on the table.
Here, Darwinson Hernandez headlines the deal. With advanced stuff that could have him in the rotation or bullpen, he’s projectable. Flores can potentially knock 20 homers and is still developing at short, while Duran is quickly rising as a speedy contact hitter, having been promoted to AA ball following a .387 batting average in Salem.
Los Angeles Dodgers: C/3B Will D. Smith (#100 MLB, #4 L.A.) and SS/2B Jeter Downs (#7 L.A.)
The likeliest target for the Dodgers still remains closer Will Smith of the Giants, who could give the team a much-needed impact lefty to bridge towards Kenley Jansen. However, Shane Greene isn’t a bad Plan B. A weak-contact oriented style of pitching could be even more beneficial in the cavernous confines of Chavez Ravine, and Greene’s background as a starter could help him give a thin bullpen multiple innings come October, a la Andrew Miller on the Indians in 2016.
For the Tigers, 24-year old catcher Will D. Smith (no relation) is a good headliner for Greene, given his versatility and phenomenal athleticism behind the plate. For a franchise with high-velocity starters coming soon, it’s important to have a steady defensive presence behind the plate. Not to mention, he’s raked in Triple A (16 homers in 53 games). Jeter Downs is another high-caliber athlete, and is a jack of all trades with power, speed, and solid defense. His reputation for versatility is well deserved; he plays both positions in the middle infield and hits the ball to both sides of the diamond consistently, an approach scouts are beginning to love in the age of the shift.
Tampa Bay Rays: 2B Vidal Brujan (#79 MLB, #6 TB), RHP Joe Ryan (#17 TB), and SS Taylor Walls (#19 TB)
The Rays are the poster child for MLB inequality: their ability to stay relevant and competitive against the Yankees and Red Sox despite a meagre ability is remarkable, and allows them to continually justify ownership’s refusal to foot the bill for many of the high-priced assets available for trade.
While they can’t/won’t spend the big bucks, the Rays are stocked with arguably the best farm system in the game, an intriguing blend of speedsters, sluggers, high-velo arms, and even two-way players. Squarely in contention this year, it’s time for Tampa to upgrade a pen that has become both overworked and somewhat ineffective.
Vidal Brujan would be the number one prospect in plenty of systems around the league. The switch hitter’s numbers last year were phenomenal: 112 runs scored (MiLB leader), 55 steals, and a .320 batting average to go along with decent pop from the left side. However, the emergence of AL ROY candidate Brandon Lowe and the eventual callup of elite prospect Wander Franco make middle infield a surplus position in Tampa. Righty pitcher Ryan has showed noticeable improvement in the minors, but lacks a solid third pitch, which leads many to believe his future lies in the ‘pen. Walls isn’t exceptional at anything, but a good eye and solid speed to go along with steady defense make a super-utility role very plausible in the majors.
Shane Greene is good; the Tigers aren’t. Whether he has new threads come deadline day seems more of a “when” question then an “if”. What his new team gets might be a bit of an open question – and it may well be none of the above-posited destinations – but it’s clear he’s a talent worth a gamble for some October hopeful.
*Stats provided by Baseball Reference ** Prospect rankings provided by MLB.com
