Why It’s Way Too Early to Think About David Price Trades
Currently, the Boston Red Sox sit in the middle of the AL Wild Card Race with a 56-47 record, two games back from the second wild card spot. Obviously, this is underwhelming coming from the defending world champions. You can call it World Series hangover, or simply just underperformance, but the fact is the Red Sox haven’t met fans’ expectations. That doesn’t mean they can’t reach those expectations.
Throughout a season of disappointment for a previously elite Boston Red Sox pitching staff, David Price has been the only consistent starter for the defending champs. With a 7-4 record over 19 starts, an ERA of 3.66 through 98.1 Innings, and a career high SO/9 of 10.4, Price is having one of his better seasons in Boston.
It’s true that since Price has arrived in Boston in December 2015 he hasn’t always been everything the Red Sox have needed. Sporting a 3.73 ERA in his three and a half years in Beantown, his numbers are significantly worse than any of his previous three stops in the majors (Tampa Bay, Detroit, and Toronto). However, even though he hasn’t been a superstar in Boston, he has been consistent, something the Red Sox have lacked this year.
In Boston, Price’s ERA has always been between a 3.38 and 3.99 ERA, suggesting that he will always keep them in the game. With this Red Sox team, that’s all you need to do – keep them in the game. As of July 25, 2019, the Red Sox are only second to the Yankees in total runs scored this year, with 582. Now, the Red Sox are only 9-10 in Price’s starts this year, but that could speak to the discrepancy in the team’s average offense and the run support that Price gets. In games that Price starts, the Red Sox score about 4.74 runs, while on average, the Sox score 5.65 runs per game. This is critical because Price has lost four one run games this year, meaning he could have a better record if his offense produced closer to their average. For reference, Rick Porcello has a 5.61 ERA this year (yikes) but the Red Sox are 12-8 in his starts because he gets a whopping 6.85 runs per game.
6.85.
Anyway, the idea of trading Price doesn’t make sense for the Red Sox goals this year. In order to try to compete this year, they’re going to need Price to recreate the postseason he had last year, particularly the ALCS and the World Series. Without Price, the Sox have no way of competing against the top echelon of teams. Chris Sale? Too inconsistent this year. Eduardo Rodriguez? Much better of late, but do you really trust him going more than 5 innings in a playoff game? Rick Porcello? Well, we’ve seen what he’s done this season. Andrew Cashner? Unproven in the postseason. Scratch that – unproven in general.
Given some high profile impeding free agents – Mookie Betts can hit free agency after the 2020 season, and he has said recently that he plans to do so and J.D. Martinez has the ability to opt-out of his contract after this season- this season or next could be the last this group is all together. We’ve seen what they can do when they figure it out, so why mess it up now? Sure, you can try to trade Price to bolster up your farm system, but why waste breakout seasons from the likes of Rafael Devers (.322/.374/.561) and Xander Bogaerts (.309/.396/.558) to try to reset and take a chance on some prospects? You’re not going to waste years of Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez’s primes to start over.
To me, this hypothetical scenario is a panic move – one which is usual for Red Sox fans. I’m not saying it’s a bad thing – we’re extremely passionate and know a lot about our team. But sometimes, we just have to take a backseat. Just because things aren’t working out doesn’t mean the Sox should trade their best pitcher this year. That’s not going to fix anything. It’s not time to hit the rebuild button. And it won’t be time anytime soon (hopefully).
Sure – if David Price defies age and continues his consistent sub 4.00 ERA’s, then he may be a trade-able contract down the line. The only way it makes sense to openly shop Price is if Martinez and Betts leave. Then, you can start a rebuild with prospects and breakout stars such as Devers and Bogaerts, who will both be under contract for at least the next four years.
Even then, Price will be 35, and will likely not garner the same value he once had. Therefore, I think Price will be in Boston for years to come, and that’s a good thing.
We’ve seen the ceiling of this team last year. We’ve seen what they can do when they all put it together. So don’t throw in the towel on this season. Run it back and see what happens.
-Andrew DiIorio (@pizzatheecat)
