The AL MVP Race: MVnT (Most Valuable non-Trout)
Mike Trout is on an absolutely incredible tear. In fact, the word “tear” doesn’t do it justice, considering he’s been raking all season long. Leading the AL in homers (39), RBI’s (92), OBP (.439), slugging (.668) and OPS (1.107), Trout may be having his best season yet in an already-Hall of Fame career. The end result is a staggering WAR of 7.6 just over 110 games into the 2019 season, on an otherwise awful roster in Anaheim.
Trout is the clear favorite to take home his third MVP award, in just his age-27 season. However, lost in the shuffle are a host of other players putting up MVP-caliber seasons in their own right. So, what about a thought experiment? (We like those here at OTBB.)
Let’s explore the AL MVnT (Most Valuable non-Trout). This gets fun fast, with players from nearly half of AL franchises having a reasonable claim to the title. We’ll examine the top four candidates: D.J. LeMahieu, Alex Bregman, Rafael Devers, and Matt Chapman.
DJ LeMahieu, 1B, 2B, 3B, New York Yankees
LeMahieu has probably made the most headlines out of the quartet: he plays on a top-flight team in the biggest market in the world, and has really come out of nowhere offensively. On a Yankees team beset by an inordinate amount of injuries, he and fellow middle-infielder Gleyber Torres have been the only two to play more than 95 games, a crucial reason why they currently hold the AL’s best record
While he showed very solid production in Colorado, LeMahieu’s game has been elevated since coming over to the Bronx. As the league batting leader (.336), LeMachine has come up countless times in the clutch for the Bombers as well, with a remarkable .415 batting average with runners in scoring position, best in the AL. Add to that a career-high home run total (18) and the positional flexibility to play first, second, and third at a high level, and the three-time All Star has a strong case for AL MVnT.
Alex Bregman, 3B, Houston Astros
In Houston, a deep Astros squad has also been beset by major injuries to their stars, as George Springer, Jose Altuve, and Carlos Correa have all been forced to miss meaningful blocks of time this season. However, star third baseman Alex Bregman has been able to carry the load quite well.
Combining 27 homers with an OBP of .400, Bregman has provided most of the pop for a ‘Stros offense that tends to focus on making contact. With a stellar WAR of 5.1, Bregman is a sabermetrics darling. While he’s seen a decline in extra-base hits, nearly every other facet of the 25-year old’s game has seen a rise in 2019.
Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox
While the rest of his team has had a much rougher go of it this year, Rafael Devers has taken the next step towards stardom. The Red Sox third baseman has helped carry a top-5 offense, batting a fantastic .329/.361/.568. The breakout hasn’t gone unnoticed at the plate, but also to be considered is the vast improvement the 22-year old made at the hot corner.
Boston’s third baseman went from a dWAR of nearly -1 last season to a currently even slate of 0. While that may not sound like much, hitters of Devers’s caliber can improve their value dramatically simply by not being a liability in the field. In fact, he actually ranks in the top five for all third basemen in Range Factor, pointing to a potential future near the top of the league defensively.
Matt Chapman, 3B, Oakland A’s
In Oakland, a team that always flies under the radar has found a leader in Matt Chapman, arguably the best fielder in all of baseball. He has a spectacular .980 fielding percentage, best in the AL for a third baseman, and a spectacular 3.05 Range Factor per Game at third, also an AL best. Add that and even more stats together, and you have a terrific 1.6 dWAR, second best in the AL, just over halfway through the season. (And Chapman may not even best his stellar 3.5 dWAR from last year, a testament to his consistent excellence at third base.)
On the offensive side, Chapman’s numbers certainly aren’t eye-popping, but he’s still doing plenty of damage. A late addition to the AL Home Run Derby roster, Champman has already tied his career high with 24 homers so far. The rest of his output has been good enough for fourth among Junior Circuit players in overall WAR, proof of an already well-rounded game.
The choice for this season’s MVnT certainly isn’t easy. Devers and Chapman drop to the bottom of the list, as their dominance is one sided, skewing offensively and deffensively, respectively. LeMahieu and Bregman are more rounded, and both bring X-factors to the table as well. In the Bronx, versatility and reliability have increased LeMathieu’s value on an injury-riddled team; Bregman’s leadership and intangibles in Houston have steadied the mood amidst injury and roster juggling.
And the winner is…
It’s hard to pick against either, but the edge here goes to LeMahieu, if only for the fact that he has changed the entire identity of New York’s offense. This season’s Yankees have finally hit well with runners on (1st in MLB), something they had struggled to do in season’s past (12th in MLB last year). The MVnT’s high average in pressure situations is a key factor in that shift. Factor in the AL batting title, great defense wherever it’s needed, and voters will be hard pressed to find a more impactful non-Trout in this year’s field.
*All stats provided by Baseball Reference
