Can the Rays’ Opener Strategy Work in the Playoffs?
The Tampa Bay Rays do everything weird. They don’t normally use starting pitchers; the Rays Opener strategy has caught on elsewhere. It’s not just the Opener, the Rays have pitchers play first base then go back on the mound to pitch.
On July 24 versus the Red Sox, the Rays brought in Adam Kolarek to face a lefty. After he got the out, he moved to first base while right handed pitcher Chaz Roe got the next out. These lineup shenanigans caused a lengthy delay on the field, as nobody understood what the Rays’ lineup would look like now.
The Rays are weird.
Last year’s Ace Blake Snell and this year’s standout starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow are both on the IL. Instead of deciding to replace them with traditional starting pitchers, they looked towards their bullpen to carry the load.
This year, the Rays have had eleven different pitchers start games for them: Charlie Morton (24), Yonny Chirinos (17), Blake Snell (20), Ryne Stanek (27), Tyler Glasnow (8), Brendan McKay (6), Ryan Yarbrough (5), Andrew Kittredge (4), Diego Castillo (2), Hunter Wood (2), and Jalen Beeks (1).
They’ve also had nine different pitchers record saves: Emilio Pagan (9), Diego Castillo (8), Jose Alvarado (7), Adam Kolarek (1), Chaz Roe (1), Jalen Beeks (1), Colin Poche (1), Hunter Wood (1), and Oliver Drake (1).
Three of those pitchers fit into both of those categories: Diego Castillo, Jalen Beeks, and Hunter Wood.
That’s weird.
The Rays have a team ERA of 3.55, best in the American League and second best in the Major Leagues only behind the LA Dodgers, who often get to pitch against pitchers. They’ve allowed the third least runs, the least amount of walks, the third most strikeouts, while opposing hitters have the third worst batting average against them. The Rays treat the first inning just as important as the ninth. It is, as statistically the most runs are scored in the first inning. Clearly, this strategy has been working for them in the regular season.
But can it work in the playoffs?
In the 2018 AL Wild Card Game, the Athletics used Liam Hendriks as an opener against the Yankees. This was to get a clean first inning, letting the rest of the bullpen finish out the game. Unfortunately, Aaron Judge hit a two-run home run in the bottom of the first, taking advantage of the opener.
There were other variations of the Rays Opener strategy in the NLCS, as Wade Miley started game five and only pitched to the leadoff hitter. After he walked him, Brandon Woodruff came on and gave up 3 ER over 5.1 IP. They went on to lose the game. This strategy was put in place to try to fool the Dodgers into setting their lineup around Miley pitching, instead of the right-handed Woodruff. It may seem brilliant in theory, but the strategy just didn’t work out.
In the modern MLB, teams are moving towards a trend of pulling the starting pitcher earlier and earlier. This makes sense if the starter has an off-night, but managers have to be careful to not over-manage, something that Rays manager Kevin Cash is prone to doing.
On July 30, the manager pulled ace Charlie Morton with two outs in the fourth inning against the Boston Redsox. He only had only given up three runs and thrown 85 pitches. Nevertheless, Cash went to Adam Kolarek, a lefty to face Andrew Benintendi. A two-run homer followed off the bat of Benintendi.
Kevin Cash could be a sight to behold in a potential AL Wild Card game. Let’s say the game’s tied at one in the third inning with a runner on. Assuming Charlie Morton starts, does Cash pull him? Does he look to get the best matchup? He wants to get to his great bullpen, but we have seen these types of bullpens fail in the playoffs before.
The Rays in the playoffs would be good for the league; they never get enough publicity due to their stadium, location, and general lack of starpower. They’re revolutionizing baseball and it’s working for them in the regular season. But there is no evidence that this strategy can be put into effect successfully in the playoffs.
If one reliever has a bad night, like a Liam Hendriks did, then the whole plan takes a step back. For an Opener to work, multiple pitchers need to be on top of their game. For a traditional team, the plan is to use only one guy to get through the 6th inning. With the Opener, a combination of 4+ pitchers may be needed to get there. It’s yet to be seen if that can occur regularly enough in the playoffs.
If the Rays can pull it off on a national stage, it’ll change the course of the MLB forever. More teams will be adopting the Rays Opener strategy than ever before. If it fails again, the public will look at the Rays as a joke of the team trying to innovate new strategies, yet failing.
Clearly, the opener works. But will it work under the bright lights of the playoffs? It’s yet to be seen, but it exposes the team to a greater degree of uncertainty in the form of additional pitchers. Just as with other strategies, it’s all about how those guys execute.
Relying on unproven bullpen arms in the playoffs seems ambitious.
-Andrew Dilorio
