Kenley Jansen, his cutter, and a dilemma facing the Dodgers Closer Situation
In year’s past it was a challenge, “Here comes the cutter, go ahead and try and hit it,” while now the script leans closer towards, “Here comes the cutter, I hope you don’t hit it.”
“Gonzalez… hits one in the air to left-center field.. back at the wall… and it is gone!” This was the moment when things changed for Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen.
The Dodgers led game 2 of the 2017 World Series 3-2 in the top of the 9th inning when Kenley Jansen was summoned to try and give them a 2-0 series lead over the Houston Astros.
Marwin Gonzalez led off that inning, and despite being ahead on an 0-2 count, Jansen left a 94mph cutter right over the heart of the plate and well, you know the rest.
After Jansen blew that save the Dodgers would go on to lose that game, and eventually the World Series.
After being the single most dominant closer in the game for years prior to that fateful Marwin Gonzalez home run, things haven’t quite been the same.
Jansen truly became an elite closer in 2013, but reached his pinnacle during the 2016 and 2017 regular seasons.
2016:
68.2 IP / 1.83 ERA / 0.67 WHIP / 104 K / 11 BB / 4 HR / 47 SV / 219 ERA+ / 1.44 FIP / 88.7 save percentage
2017:
68.1 IP / 1.32 ERA / 0.75 WHIP / 109 K / 7 BB / 5 HR / 41 SV / 315 ERA+ / 1.31 FIP / 97.6 save percentage
Then the 2017 World Series happened, and frankly he’s been a different pitcher since. He’s still been electrifyingly dominant at times, but the differences in numbers are staggering.
2018:
71.2 IP / 3.01 ERA / 0.99 WHIP / 82 K / 17 BB / 13 HR / 38 SV / 128 ERA+ / 4.03 FIP / 90.5 save percentage
2019:
48.2 IP / 3.70 ERA / 1.05 WHIP / 64 K / 11 BB / 8 HR / 26 SV / 113 ERA+ / 3.58 FIP / 81.2 save percentage.
There is no doubt that 2019 Kenley Jansen isn’t 2016/2017 Kenley Jansen, and Dodger fans faith in him is probably as low as it’s ever been.
In his last two seasons, he’s lost significant velocity on his cutter and has failed to adapt to that reality. In his prime, he could get away with throwing cutter after cutter after cutter because opposing hitters were consistently overmatched, but that is not the case any longer.
It’s important to analyze the cutter usage of the Dodgers closer over the past four seasons to get the full picture.
2016: 73.5% of pitches // 93.9 mph average velocity // .156 BA // .250 SLG%
2017: 85.4% of pitches // 93.2 mph average velocity // .194 BA // .306 SLG%
2018: 83.8% of pitches // 92.1 mph average velocity // .194 BA // .401 SLG%
2019: 76.7% of pitches // 91.7 mph average velocity // .243 BA // .471 SLG%
See the trend? His velocity has gone down every year (not to mention the movement on his cutter has also declined slightly since 2017) correlating directly to opponents having more success at the plate.
His once-dominant cutter, while still one of the best in the MLB, is simply not as unhittable as it used to be. Unfortunately, the Dodgers closer has proven to be rather predictable.
Jansen has an 81.2% save percentage this year. That is not terrible, but for Dodger fans desperately seeking that ever elusive World Series, it’s simply not good enough.
He still sits at the top of the league in K%, hard hit %, exit velocity, xBA and xwOBA, and is still more than a viable option in the back end of the bullpen. But with Joe Kelly and Pedro Baez looming, the days of Jansen being THE guy in the 9th inning are numbered.
The harsh reality is that his cutter is vulnerable, and he’s still, as Dave Roberts put it, “going to the well too many times” with it.
It’s no secret that Jansen lives and dies with his cutter. He knows it, we know it, the hitters know it, and that’s the problem.
In year’s past it was a challenge. He effectively told hitters: “Here comes the cutter, go ahead and try and hit it.” Now the script leans closer towards, “Here comes the cutter, I hope you don’t hit it.”
His decline in velocity, movement, and confidence has led to the cutter becoming more and more vulnerable over the last two seasons, and it is no doubt a scary sight for Dodgers fans.
Jansen deserves credit for persevering through his offseason heart surgery and continuing to find success more times than not in the 9th inning, but there comes a point when production matters more than loyalty.
I wrote about the Dodgers “problem of loyalty” regarding the Austin Barnes situation awhile back, and it definitely applies here. I worry that when the time comes to make a decision in the 9th inning in October, loyalty might outweigh logic and evidence.
The Astros removed closer Ken Giles from his role in 2017. The Red Sox removed Craig Kimbrel from his role in 2018. It worked out pretty well for those teams.
Will the Dodgers follow suit? Will the Dodgers closer situation fully shift? Time will tell, but it’s comforting to know the team does have Joe Kelly and Pedro Baez ready and waiting if they do eventually get the call.
-David Rosenthal (@_therealdrose)
