Fernando Rodney and Baseball’s 40-something Problem
Along with many great players in their mid-to-late-20s and early-30s, the 2019 season has featured a very impressive group of players 21 and younger that includes Ronald Acuña Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr., Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Juan Soto, and Bo Bichette. All of these guys have been fun to watch, but one thing the 2019 season is lacking is productive older talent. For the first time since 1975, just two players aged 40-or-older have appeared in a major league game. In the years in between, from 1976 to 2018, an average of ten 40-something baseball players appeared in at least one game each season.
This year’s golden oldies are Ichiro Suzuki (45 years old) and Fernando Rodney (42) and Ichiro barely counts. It looked like he had hung up his spikes last May after playing 15 games for the Mariners in 2018. Instead, he came back and played two games for the Mariners in their opening series against the A’s in Japan. He came back for that series in Tokyo for sentimental reasons. Japanese fans wanted to see him on the field one last time. Playing in both games, he was 0-for-5 with a walk.
Fernando Rodney started the year with the Oakland A’s and looked ready for retirement after putting up a 9.42 ERA (5.59 FIP) in 14.3 innings during the first two months of the season. The A’s released him in late-May and he was signed by the desperate-for-relievers Washington Nationals. Since joining the Nats, he has a 3.42 ERA (3.77 FIP) in 23.2 innings.
This is just the 13th time since 1901 that so few 40-or-older players appeared in a game. Nine of those seasons were before 1960. The remaining four include this season plus three seasons in the 1970s. The last time this happened, in 1975, one of the two players was Hall of Famer Hank Aaron, who was closing out his career with the first of two seasons as the DH for the Milwaukee Brewers. Joining Aaron in the 40-or-older club that year was journeyman reliever Orlando Pena in his final season.
If not for Ichiro’s encore in Japan, the 2019 season would have only one player 40-or-older, which would tie the record for fewest 40-or-older players in a season. Since 1901, there have been five such seasons, most of them nearly a century ago:
1901—Catcher Chief Zimmer (40), Pittsburgh Pirates
1905—Catcher Deacon McGuire (41), New York Highlanders
1919—Pitcher Nick Altrock (42), Washington Senators
1923—Pitcher Babe Adams (41), Pittsburgh Pirates
1966—Pitcher Hoyt Wilhelm (43), Chicago White Sox
People who have been baseball fans for a while know that it wasn’t that long ago that players age 40 and older were much more plentiful.
The record is 26 players in 2007. This group included Hall of Fame pitchers John Smoltz, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, and Tom Glavine, along with Hall of Fame-ish pitchers Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling, both of whom are statistically viable but haven’t received enough votes for other* reasons. The nine hitters aged 40-or-older that year included Hall of Famer Craig Biggio, Hall of Fame-ish outfielder Barry Bonds and a guy who deserved many more votes than he received, Kenny Lofton.
Fans who grew up watching baseball 10-20 years ago regularly saw at least a dozen 40-something baseball players each season. From 2003 to 2013, an average of 16 such players appeared in major league games each season and many were still quite productive. In 2003, 40-year-old Edgar Martinez hit .294/.406/.489, which made him 42 percent better than average on offense and worth 2.7 WAR (per FanGraphs). The aforementioned Kenny Lofton was better than Edgar as a 40-year-old in 2007. He scored 86 runs, stole 23 bases, had a .367 OBP, and was worth 2.9 WAR.
The pitchers in this group of 40-or-older players from 2003 to 2013 were even more accomplished. Greg Maddux averaged 3.5 WAR per season from age 40 to 42. Randy Johnson was an absolute beast in his age-40 season and was still very good at 41 and 44. David Wells was an above-average pitcher until he was 41 and Roger Clemens was an above-average pitcher until he was 43. This group also included Jamie Moyer, who was still lobbing in 79 mph fastballs at the age of 49 in 2012.
It’s easy to think that PEDs contributed to the lengthy careers of players 40-or-older who excelled during this time, but guys like Edgar Martinez, Greg Maddux, and Randy Johnson don’t have any PED accusations attached to their name. It could just be an impressive group of players who were able to maintain their excellence into their 40s. For whatever reason, this hasn’t been the case more recently.
The number of 40-something baseball players has dwindled in the seasons since 2013, as has their value on the diamond. From 2014 to 2018, there were 12 player-seasons by a position player 40-or-older. Ichiro Suzuki, averaging just 0.2 WAR per season, made up five of these. Other replacement-level (or worse) 40-or-older position players included Derek Jeter, Bobby Abreu, and Raul Ibanez in 2014 and Carlos Beltran in 2017. The only above-average 40-or-older position player during this five-year period was David Ortiz in his final season (.315/.401/.620, 38 HR, 127 RBI, 4.5 WAR).
On the pitching side, older hurlers of recent vintage can hang their hats on Bartolo Colon, with three above-average seasons from ages 41 to 43 (2014-2016). And that’s about it. R.A. Dickey had a couple of nearly-average seasons (1.8 and 1.5 WAR in 2015 and 2017, respectively) after turning 40. Relievers Koji Uehara (1.3 WAR in 2015) and Fernando Rodney (1.3 WAR in 2017) weren’t bad either. In general, most older players lately have been oldies but not goodies.
The future doesn’t look bright either. Just two 39-year-old position players appeared in a game this season—Albert Pujols (.252/.312/.449, 0.0 WAR) and Erik Kratz (53 PA, -0.4 WAR). Rich Hill is the lone 39-year-old pitcher and he’s been limited to 53 innings because of injuries. With Ichiro likely staying retired this time, Pujols, Kratz, Hill, and Rodney are the potential 40-somethings who could appear in a game next year. Hill looks like the only one who could approach league average production.
Looking at the 2021 season, it’s hard to imagine Erik Kratz still kicking around, but Albert Pujols will still be under contract with the Angels. He’ll be 41 years old. Nelson Cruz, Curtis Granderson, Ben Zobrist, and Rajai Davis will be 40. Of that foursome, Cruz could still be smashing bombs two years from now, but Davis hardly played in the big leagues this year. Zobrist has had his personal struggles, and Granderson is hitting just .185/.282/.359. Neither Granderson nor Davis are likely to make it to 2021 and Zobrist is a question mark, even for the rest of this year.
This year’s 38-year-old pitchers are CC Sabathia and Pat Neshek. Sabathia has announced his retirement and Neshek is out for the season after pitching 18 innings. It’s hard to imagine Neshek pitching in the big leagues two years from now.
Looking at all players 35 or older in 2019, there are a few players who could still be average or better when they turn 40, but I wouldn’t lay any bets on it at https://panodeposit.com/. Nelson Cruz, mentioned above, looks like the best option, with Yuli Gurriel (35), Edwin Encarnacion (36), and Brett Gardner (35) being in the mix. Pitchers Justin Verlander (36) and Zack Grienke (35) are still very effective, but four or five years is a long time for a major league pitcher to maintain his skills.
40-something baseball players had a nice run in the early 2000s, but the near future doesn’t look so bright for aging veterans. Current baseball fans will have to be content to root for the young guys, like the aforementioned 21-and-under collection of “sons of major leaguers” and Juan Soto. The crop of 22 and 23-year-olds like Cody Bellinger, Rafael Devers, and Yordan Alvarez isn’t bad either.
-Bobby Mueller
