The Impending Free Agency of Gerrit Cole
In the winter of 2017, the reigning World Champion Houston Astros took a big risk in bringing over big righty Gerrit Cole from the Pittsburgh Pirates.
While talented, the star pitcher had struggled that season, pitching to a just-okay 4.26 ERA, accompanied by a statistical decline across the board from his career numbers. Despite being coveted by the Yankees, Astros GM Jeff Lunhow was willing to give up a package of talented youngsters to make a deal, headlined by 3B Colin Moran and pitcher Joe Musgrove. After two seasons of brilliance, it’s safe to say that the trade was a stroke of genius by the Astros.
Following two seasons of sensational pitching (2.84 ERA, 151 ERA+, 13.0 K/9), the 29-year old now enters the offseason as the most highly sought after player on the open market. In a league starving for elite starting pitching, it’s possible that Cole could buck the trend of declining free agent offers. It’s more than reasonable to see a contract breaking into $30 million dollars in average annual value (AAV), a figure touched by just five other starters.
Needless to say, Gerrit Cole will be sought after by numerous clubs this winter, a market that could set off a bidding war between World Series contenders.
The Favorite: Houston Astros
While predictable, it’s still highly likely that Cole is donning Astros orange next April. After all, the righty’s career was revived by famed Houston pitching coach Brent Strom.
With the amount of starpower in Houston’s rotation alone, and Cole won’t have to carry the weight like he did in Pittsburgh, which could also help his arm in the long run. Add in a comfortable environment that breeds winning, and it would be hard to see anyone giving that up.
On the other hand, Houston will have to make significant financial decisions in the coming years. Young stars George Springer and Carlos Correa still need new deals to lock them up long term. Fellow rotation member Wade Miley has earned a big payday after a phenomenal 2019.
The Astros are projected to have the fourth highest payroll in 2020 even without any resignings and additions, just $18,000,000 behind the leading Yankees. With a decent stable of young talent still in tow, shelling out a contract nearing $200 million may prove too costly in diminishing Houston’s excellent depth.
The Challengers: New York Yankees
A common misconception about the Yankees: they don’t necessarily “need” starting pitching, especially with a healthy Luis Severino next season.
With that being said, a move for a player of Cole’s caliber would almost certainly make them the World Series favorites for next year, and bring their rotation from decent to dominant. Snatching him from the rival Astros would also hurt their biggest American League competition. Reaching a deal with Cole would bring the Bronx the front-line arm fans have clamored for, free of any prospect charge.
With all that being said, the past is important to keep in mind in this case. When GM Brian Cashman watched Cole slip from his fingers, he did so due to an unwillingness to give up then-top prospect Miguel Andujar. Despite a great rookie year, the now-injured third baseman nowhere near as valuable as Cole.
Under the ownership of Hal Steinbrenner, New York has frequently remained stubbornly on the sidelines when acquiring pitching, just see ex-Astro Dallas Keuchel, who ended up in Atlanta despite the Yankees’ need. Will they decide to ramp up spending now?
Atlanta Braves
Much has been made of the young Atlanta Braves and their enviable stash of pitching prospects. As a result, they are currently 4th in all of baseball in team ERA (4.22). However, the rest of the rotation’s veterans could depart soon.
Both Julio Tehran and Dallas Keuchel could leave in the next two seasons. Following breakout star Mike Srorka and Max Fried, none of the other young talents have truly proven themselves at the major league level.
The Braves’s future payroll remains low: entering 2020, just over $80,000,000 dollars will remain on the books, good enough for 17th in baseball. Striking for Cole would shift the balance of the National League, and would give Atlanta the ability to cash in on their young chips for another big bat.
Much like the Yankees, Atlanta will have to determine whether a mega-deal for Gerrit Cole is worth significant financial investment, or whether their money is better spent on adding a bat to their lineup.
Boston Red Sox
It may seem crazy to think that a team with the highest payroll in the game and a potential $300 million dollar extension on the horizon for outfielder Mookie Betts could afford the top player on the open market. Yet, it would be unwise to ever count out the Red Sox from making a marquee deal.
Former President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski is now gone, so the team may choose to reduce their budget, and certainly they’ve been burned by big contracts for starters in the last few seasons . However, it’s easy to see Cole as a perfect fit for a drastically underperforming starting staff (4.98 ERA, 20th in MLB).
While a longshot, there is some hope based off future payroll obligations. The departures of Rick Porcello, Mitch Moreland, and Steve Pearce will free up around $34 million. That could be just right for a Cole deal. It does bear mentioning that longterm deals for superstars Betts and (eventually) Rafael Devers will also be paramount moving forward, as well as bullpen upgrades, so the team may choose to bank on internal improvement from their talented starters. Regardless, the Red Sox have shown that they are a threat to nab any players on the free agent block at any time.
Dark Horses
It’s never wise to count out the Dodgers, but the team has been wary of big money deals lately, and the pitching staff is an obvious strength. A more realistic pair of options may come from within the AL West.
The Rangers may decide to make a push and nab Cole from their in-state rivals, but recent moves towards rebuilding make it unlikely.
For years, solid Mike Trout-led offenses have faltered under a mediocre pitching staff. If the Angels are serious about returning to the postseason, then Cole could be that piece, especially with the end of Albert Pujols’s lengthy deal on the horizon.
Even the Phillies could spend big yet again to address a weak stable of starters.
Wherever Gerrit Cole signs, his market figures to be robust and pricey. With such a long line of potential suitors in need of elite starting pitching, the stakes are sure to be high. While the Astros star is surely focused on October baseball first and foremost, one can be certain that he’ll look to cash in on a Cy-Young caliber season.
-Bryan Armetta
