Pedro Baez and Joe Kelly: A Song of Ice and Fire
If you had told Dodger fans two or three years ago that in 2019 they would have more faith in Pedro Baez than they do in Kenley Jansen, they would have laughed in your face.
If you had told Dodger fans in April of this year that Joe Kelly would end up being the team’s best reliever in 2019, most probably would’ve at least scoffed at you.
Well here we are, and both of those scenario’s have come true.
Kenley Jansen’s struggles are well documented, and while he hasn’t necessarily been bad by most measures, he’s certainly been unreliable at times, causing warranted concern among Dodger fans.
I detailed Jansen’s struggles and analyzed his cutter in particular a few weeks ago, so that brings us to Pedro Baez and Joe Kelly, two major keys to the team’s title hopes this season.
I’ve given this duo the nickname of “Fire and Ice”, so let’s start with the flames.
After Kelly’s abysmal start to the season where he gave up 18 runs in his first 18.1 innings pitched for the Dodgers, he has been the team’s best reliever since June.
Excluding March, April and May, the flame throwing right-hander has only surrendered 6 earned runs over 31 innings (1.74 ERA), and has looked dominant in doing so.
Due to Kelly’s rocky start his ERA of 4.56 remains high, but even with that tumultuous beginning of the year he has an expected FIP of 3.17.
He’s said the turning point was when he basically completely abandoned his four seam fastball and upped the usage of his two seam fastball, and man are the Dodgers glad that adjustment was made.
Kelly’s left hitters burnt to a crisp at the plate, ranking in the 99th percentile in fastball velocity and curveball spin — while also at the top of league in K% (78th percentile), expected batting average (82nd percentile), expected slugging percentage (83rd percentile), and xwOBA (82nd percentile).
Now keep in mind those are his ranks INCLUDING his abysmal April and May.
Since June, Kelly’s been one of the best relievers in all of baseball, and this is what Andrew Friedman had in mind when he signed him to a three-year, $25 million contract.
Now onto the ice.
Where Joe Kelly torches hitters as he lights up the radar gun with his fastball averaging 98mph, Pedro Baez succeeds in a different way, lulling hitters to sleep with his glacial pace of play and devastating changeup.
Baez, the former town pariah of Los Angeles in his earlier years, has been nothing short of a model of consistency in an otherwise inconsistent bullpen.
His changeup leaves hitters frozen solid at the plate, and he’s increased it’s usage drastically this season. He’s throwing the changeup 31.7% of the time this season, compared to just 14.9% of the time last year, and it’s become his most lethal weapon.
Opposing hitters have a batting average of just .143 against his changeup with a .214 SLG% and .208 wOBA.
In 63.1 innings this year, Baez is 7-2 with a 3.27 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 66 strikeouts, 21 walks, one save and is holding hitters to a .223 batting average of balls put in play.
Baez’s transformation is commendable. In years past when Baez would run in from the bullpen to enter the game all Dodger fans would see was an unreliable nightmare. Now, when Baez makes the jog from the bullpen, he gives fans a soothing feeling of comfort and security.
Baez even ranks ahead of Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman in Win Probability Added (WPA) on the season — a stat that measure a player’s contribution to a win by crediting or debiting the player based on how much their action increased their team’s odds of winning.
If you don’t appreciate what Baez has done the past two years, it’s time to start appreciating it.
With the division clinched and Baez approaching 70 innings, I’d like to see the Dodgers limit his outings, because he’s certainly going to be needed in excess in the postseason.
Baez and Kelly are the key. The team needs them to bring their success into the postseason, or quite frankly, the Dodgers are simply doomed.
Dave Roberts uses both of them in high leverage situations, whether it be in the 5th inning or the 9th inning, and these two are going to be pitching when it really matters in the postseason.
While Roberts has remained steadfast by keeping Jansen as his closer, I would not be surprised to see his role change in the postseason, and the team is lucky they have two guys who can step in for him immediately.
It’s all going to depend on how much tolerance the Dodgers and Roberts have for Jansen’s struggles. Will one blown save in the 9th inning of a postseason game be enough to alter his role?
And further expanding on that, if Jansen consistently struggles for the remainder of the season and into the postseason, will that even be enough for the Dodgers to remove him from high leverage situations altogether?
Time will tell, but my guess is due to his past success and overall contributions to the team, the Dodgers will continue to take the ride-or-die approach with Jansen — at this point, it’s just a matter of at what point in the game does he pitch.
Joe Kelly and Pedro Baez form a sturdy, Golden Gate-like bridge to the 9th inning, the question is, will one of those two foundations of that bridge be removed and summoned for the 9th itself?
– David Rosenthal (@_therealdrose)
