The 2019 MLB All-Disappointing Team
Every season has its share of breakout players and disappointing players. In 2019, guys like Ketel Marte and Marcus Semien have been among the big breakouts, while the guys identified below are on the other side of the coin. These are the disappointments.
The 2019 All-Disappointing Team consists of players who were projected to be roughly average or better and who have fallen well short of projections. This won’t include injured players, like Giancarlo Stanton. Those guys are definitely disappointing, but the All-Injured List could be a whole separate topic for a different day. To make this list, a player needs at least 450 plate appearances (except for catchers), 100-plus innings for starting pitchers, or 40 or more innings for relievers.
This is a list of the guys who were expected to be good, were given a chance to reach expectations, and utterly failed. I used each player’s pre-season projection from the FanGraphs Depth Charts as their expected performance, with their current stats used for comparison. Let’s go position-by-position. All 2019 statistics through Sunday, September 22.
Catcher—Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants
- Projection: 515 PA, .287/.363/.417, 4.7 WAR
- Actual: 433 PA, .254/.317/.360, 1.7 WAR
With about one week left in the season, Buster Posey is still below 2 WAR, which is league average. That’s disappointing, and it isn’t what Giants fans were hoping for from the six-time all-star. It was just two years ago that Posey was the most valuable catcher in baseball—4.7 WAR, per FanGraphs—and he was expected to get back to that level after a sub-par 2018 season in which he hit just five home runs and slugged .382 in 105 games.
While so many hitters are crushing dingers at an unprecedented rate this year, Posey has six home runs, and only five of them came while playing catcher (44 players have more home runs than Posey while playing catcher this season). He’ll also set career-lows for batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage (excluding the seven games he played in 2009).
Posey will be 33 next season. His walk rate is his lowest since 2014 and his strikeout rate is his highest since 2011. That’s not a good trend for either metric. He also hasn’t shown any kind of improvement over the course of the season, as he was actually slightly better on offense in the first half than the second. In 881 plate appearances over the last two seasons, Posey has hit .269/.339/.371. The Giants have him under contract for two more years at roughly $22 million per year, plus a team option for a third.
Dishonorable Mention C: Yadier Molina, St. Louis Cardinals
- Projection: 495 PA, .266/.313/.407, 2.8 WAR
- Actual: 424 PA, .268/.307/.394, 0.7 WAR
Molina is having his worst season since 2006, back when he was a spritely lad of 23. He’s had a curious career, hitting-wise. He didn’t hit for much power until he entered his late 20s, when he hit 14, 22, and 12 homers from 2011 to 2013. Then the power dried up for a few years before he again had a long ball surge with 18 and 20 homers in 2017 and 2018. Those two big power years came with low on-base percentages. This year, not only has his power waned, but his on-base percentage is still low. The franchise icon will be 37 next year and has one year and $20 million remaining on his contract.
1B—Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds
- Projection: 644 PA, .284/.414/.465, 3.8 WAR
- Actual: 588 PA, .267/.364/.421, 1.1 WAR
Like Buster Posey, Votto slipped from his previous high level last season, when he dropped from a 6.5-WAR player to a disappointing 3.5-WAR player. The big difference last year was in his power output. In 2017, Votto hit 36 dingers and slugged .578. Last year, he hit 12 and slugged .419. He was projected by the FanGraphs depth charts to bounced back this year with 21 homers and a .465 slugging percentage, but he’s fallen well short of both marks.
Even more surprising has been Votto’s .364 OBP, which is the lowest of his career other than a 24-game sample during his rookie year. Before this season, he had an OBP above .400 every year since 2009 and regularly walked more than 15 percent of the time. This year, he’s walked 12.8 percent of the time, which is his lowest mark since his first full season in the big leagues (2008). He’s also striking out at a career-high rate.
Votto will be 36 years old next season. It wouldn’t be unusual for him to bounce back a bit—he’s been slightly better in the second half (.266/.369/.435) than the first half (.268/.360/.411)—but he’s unlikely to ever again be the .320/.450/.580 player he was just a couple years ago. He also has four years and $100 million left on his contract with the Reds, plus a $20 million team option (or $7 million buyout).
Dishonorable Mention 1B—Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants
- Projection: 609 PA, .251/.355/.433, 2.9 WAR
- Actual: 597 PA, .237/.340/.409, 0.5 WAR
If you’re looking for a bright side with Brandon Belt, there is the fact that he’ll play 150 games this season for just the third time in his career. Unfortunately, all of that playing time has produced a disappointing league average bat (100 wRC+) and barely above replacement-level WAR at a position that demands more offense. He’ll be 32 years old next season and has two years and $34.4 million remaining on his contract.
2B—Joe Panik, San Francisco Giants/New York Mets
- Projection: 560 PA, .275/.340/.396, 2.1 WAR
- Actual: 483 PA, .243/.312/.329, 0.0 WAR
From 2015 to 2017, Panik hit .278/.345/.416. He didn’t hit for a ton of power, but he got on base at a solid clip and was an above-average player overall. He struggled last year, but was projected to bounce back this season. He hasn’t. He’s been about as bad as he was last year and now has 874 plate appearances over the last two seasons with a .248/.310/.331 triple-slash. It’s amazing how quickly a player can go from league average to bench bat, which is likely where Joe Panik is headed in 2020, when he’ll be 29 years old.
Dishonorable Mention 2B—Rougned Odor, Texas Rangers
- Projection: 637 PA, .248/.306/.447, 1.9 WAR
- Actual: 555 PA, .202/.276/.423, 0.0 WAR
Odor was all over the map during the four seasons prior to 2019. He was a 2.5 WAR player in back-to-back seasons in 2015-2016, then had a truly awful -1.3 WAR season in 2017 (despite hitting 30 home runs). He bounced back last year with a 2.4 WAR season that included a career-high .326 on-base percentage. This year, he’s back to the terrible OBP guy he was previously and his .423 slugging percentage is below average in this year’s homer-happy hitting environment. He also hasn’t been impressive in the field.
SS—Brandon Crawford, San Francisco Giants
- Projection: 637 PA, .254/.321/.406, 3.1 WAR
- Actual: 544 PA, .232/.307/.357, 0.6 WAR
Like many players, Crawford was at his best in his late-20s. From 2014 to 2016, he averaged 4.1 WAR per year, peaking at age 29 in 2016 with a 5.2-WAR season. In those days, he was above average on offense and had a few years as an elite defender. His power output has declined every year since, from a .462 slugging percentage in 2015 to his .357 mark this season. He’s also no longer the great fielder he once was. He has two years and $30.4 million left on his contract with the Giants.
Those keeping track at home may have noticed that four infielders on this All-Disappointing Team started the year with the San Francisco Giants. Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Joe Panik, and Brandon Crawford have come up a combined 10 WAR short of their projections. Theoretically, adding 10 wins to the 75-81 San Francisco Giants would result in an 85-71 team that would be battling with the Nationals (85-69) and Brewers (86-70) for a wild card spot.
3B—Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
- Projection: 595 PA, .297/.360/.497, 4.3 WAR
- Actual: 496 PA, .276/.345/.444, 0.7 WAR
Expectations were sky-high for Baby Vlad after he destroyed minor league pitching at multiple levels in 2018 (.381/.437/.636). In fact, he hit so well last year that fans were clamoring for him to join the Blue Jays in September even though he was only 19 years old. The Blue Jays said they didn’t think he was ready. He finally made his major league debut on April 26.
It’s important to remember that Vlad is only 20 years old and is hitting .276/.345/.444. That’s a 109 wRC+, meaning he’s been nine percent above average offensively, which is a feat in itself for a 20-year-old. Since 1901, there have only been 67 player-seasons in which a 20-or-under player had at least 500 plate appearances. Vlad will join them soon and his 109 wRC+ puts him in the company of other accomplished MLB players when they were 20 years old, including Roberto Alomar (107 wRC+ in 1988), and Hank Aaron (103 in 1954).
Vlad’s glove, on the other hand, has been bad—really, really bad. Vlad ranks dead last in the FanGraphs fielding metric for third basemen with 800 or more defensive innings at third base. His poor defensive showing and his negative value on the bases is enough to counter the slightly above average offense. The overall package ends up right around 0.7 WAR, well short of pre-season expectations.
Dishonorable Mention 3B—Matt Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals
- Projection: 623 PA, .251/.372/.470, 3.8 WAR
- Actual: 465 PA, .230/.338/.390, 1.3 WAR
In 2018, Matt Carpenter was really bad in April and September, but very good in the four months in between. He credited his hot stretch to his “secret sauce” salsa. Apparently, that salsa secret didn’t carry over to this season because Carpenter has really struggled. He’s been better in September, but his numbers across-the-board this season are the worst of his career. He’ll be 34 next year and has two years and $37 million left on his contract, with a vesting option that could add a third year at $18.5 million.
LF—Wil Myers, San Diego Padres
- Projection: 616 PA, .244/.323/.445, 2.2 WAR
- Actual: 478 PA, .236/.319/.413, 0.4 WAR
Wil Myers had his two best full-time seasons in 2016 and 2017, when he was a regular at first base. During those two seasons, he hit .251/.332/.462 and averaged 29 homers and 24 steals. His defense was fine in 2016, but terrible in 2017, according to FanGraphs. The Padres signed Eric Hosmer to an eight-year deal to play first base prior to the 2018 season, which moved Myers to third base and center field in 2018 and left field and center field this year.
Myers was a good contributor last year, with 1.6 WAR in 83 games, but he only played 83 games because of assorted injuries that led to multiple stints on the Injured List. He’s been healthy enough to play in 149 games this year and has 18 homers and 15 steals in 476 plate appearances. That being said, his .236/.319/.413 batting line is disappointing and below league average and in a year in which 123 players have hit at least 20 home runs, Myers has just 18.
Dishonorable Mention LF—Domingo Santana, Seattle Mariners
- Projection: 602 PA, .235/.329/.420, 1.8 WAR
- Actual: 501 PA, .253/.329/.444, 0.0 WAR
Santana is hitting better than projected, although injuries have prevented him from getting the 600 plate appearances that were expected. The reason he’s on this list is his disappointing glove. His terrible, awful, dreadful glove. Santana ranks last in the FanGraphs defense metric among left fielders with 500 or more innings. Statcast Outs Above Average agrees, ranking Santana 92nd out of 93 outfielders (only Eddie Rosario has been worse, according to Statcast).
CF—Lorenzo Cain, Milwaukee Brewers
- Projection: 630 PA, .286/.359/.417, 4.2 WAR
- Actual: 607 PA, .252/.318/.358, 1.3 WAR
When Lorenzo Cain started getting regular playing time with the Royals in 2013, he was much more known for his great glove than his mediocre bat. That year, he hit .251/.310/.348 as a 27-year-old. He was 20 percent below average on offense, but was still worth 2.0 WAR because of his defense.
Cain broke out in 2014 with a 4.4-WAR season, then generally played at or above that level over the next four years, which included an injury-shortened 2016 season. He came into 2019 projected to be the second-best center fielder in baseball, behind only Mike Trout.
Instead of continuing the trend of good hitting and good fielding over the previous five years, Cain has reverted back to the hitter he was in 2013. In fact, he’s been slightly worse, with a 78 wRC+. He’s still having a good year in the field and he’s been better on offense in the second half than the first half, but he’s going to finish nearly 3 WAR below expectations. Luckily for Brewers fans, the Cubs imploded in a four-game sweep at the hands of the Cardinals over the weekend, so the Brewers are looking good for a wild card spot despite Cain’s disappointing season.
Dishonorable Mention CF—Mallex Smith, Seattle Mariners
- Projection: 644 PA, .260/.328/.366, 2.6 WAR
- Actual: 554 PA, .229/.303/.339, 0.2 WAR
In the offseason, the Mariners acquired Smith and minor league outfielder Jake Fraley for catcher Mike Zunino and outfielder Guillermo Heredia. None of the major league players in the deal have been worth even 0.5 WAR this season. Smith was coming off a 3.5 WAR season in which he hit .296/.367/.406. This year, he’s barely been able to keep his on-base percentage above .300 and he’s slugging .339. There have been 126 hitters with 500 plate appearances this year and Smith’s 75 wRC+ is fourth from the bottom.
RF—Yasiel Puig, Cincinnati Reds/Cleveland Indians
- Projection: 581 PA, .270/.345/.495, 3.2 WAR
- Actual: 597 PA, .267/.327/.459, 1.3 WAR
If you look at Yasiel Puig’s raw stat line, you might not think he should be on this All-Disappointing Team. He has the second-most hits of any season in his career, the third-most runs scored, the second-most homers, and the most RBI, we thought just a few months ago that the Reds should extend his contract. He also has a career-high in steals. Despite all of the counting statistics, his .267/.327/.459 batting line is exactly average when league and ballpark are taken into account (100 wRC+).
It’s important to remember that the 2019 season has produced the second-highest leaguewide slugging percentage in baseball history. Only the 2000 season was higher. In a different era, Puig’s .459 slugging percentage would be more impressive. This year, it’s not. Puig also has a barely above average on-base percentage and he played many of his games in a hitter’s ballpark in Cincinnati. He’ll be 29 next year and hits the free agent market this offseason.
Dishonorable Mention RF—Randal Grichuk, Toronto Blue Jays
- Projection: 546 PA, .243/.299/.498, 2.6 WAR
- Actual: 607 PA, .235/.283/.459, 0.8 WAR
Randal Grichuk has 30 homers for the first time in his career. He also has career highs in games played, plate appearances, hits, runs scored, and RBI. Unfortunately, all of that comes with a disappointing .283 on-base percentage. He has a 91 wRC+, which means he’s been nine percent below average on offense after league and ballpark affects are taken into account. Since 1901, only eight players have hit 30 home runs and finished with a lower wRC+ than Grichuk.
DH—Khris Davis, Oakland Athletics
- Projection: 658 PA, .244/.325/.510, 2.5 WAR
- Actual: 519 PA, .217/.289/.382, -1.1 WAR
When this season is in the record books, one of the great disappointments of 2019 will be the end of Khris Davis’ .247 batting average streak:
2015: .247
2016: .247
2017: .247
2018: .247
Davis is looking at a disappointing .220-ish finish this year, which is a bummer for baseball fans everywhere. For Oakland fans in particular, though, Davis’ collapse in on-base percentage and slugging percentage is much worse. Rather than be an above average hitter with 40-plus homers who has consistently been worth 2.5 WAR per season over the last three seasons, Davis has actually cost the A’s more than a win in the standings. He’s 3.5 wins worse than projected, which is big for an A’s team that is battling with the Rays and Indians for an AL wild card spot.
Dishonorable Mention DH—Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers
- Projection: 560 PA, .279/.365/.464, 2.0 WAR
- Actual: 534 PA, .285/.350/.391, -0.3 WAR
Age is cruel, so very cruel. It doesn’t seem that long ago that Miguel Cabrera was one of the best hitters in the game. In fact, it was just a few years ago, in 2016, when Cabrera hit .316/.393/.563, with 38 homers. His 153 wRC+ was sixth in baseball, behind only Mike Trout, David Ortiz, Joey Votto, Josh Donaldson, and Daniel Murphy. He was worth 4.8 WAR.
Cabrera has been a disappointing shadow of his former self ever since. Unless he has a big final week of the season, he will finish with a slugging percentage below .400 for the second time in three years. His 98 wRC+ ranks 108th out of the 141 hitters with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title (sadly, just ahead of Albert Pujols). The worst part for Tigers fans is that Cabrera still has four years and $124 million left on his contract.
SP—Chris Archer, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Projection: 188 IP, 3.70 ERA, 3.47 FIP, 9.7 K/9, 3.7 WAR
- Actual: 119.7 IP, 5.19 ERA, 5.02 FIP, 10.8 K/9, 0.7 WAR
Fans of the Pittsburgh Pirates could create a long list of frustrating and disappointing things from the 2019 season. Archer may not be at the top of the list, but he would definitely be on it. He seems like he has good stuff, but it’s been a while since that stuff translated to good results. Before going on the IL this year, Archer struck out 27.2 percent of the hitters he faced. That’s good for 23rd among the 101 starting pitchers with 100 or more innings this year. Unfortunately, he also walked 10.5 percent of the hitters he faced, which ranks 97th out of those 101 pitchers, and allowed 1.9 home runs per nine innings, which ranks 95th.
Archer’s performance has been awful. What makes it even worse is that the Pirates traded Austin Meadows, Tyler Glasnow, and Shane Baz for him last July. Meadows is playing his first full season and has been worth 3.9 WAR for the Rays. Glasnow has been limited to 11 starts this year, but is still worth 2.2 WAR. Baz was the Rays’ #10 prospect prior to this season and he put up good numbers in A-ball. It was just a brutal trade for the Pirates.
Dishonorable Mention SP—J.A. Happ, New York Yankees
- Projection: 167 IP, 4.01 ERA, 4.13 FIP, 8.7 K/9, 2.9 WAR
- Actual: 156.3 IP, 5.01 ERA, 5.35 FIP, 7.7 K/9, 1.1 WAR
Last December, the Yankees signed Happ to a two-year, $34 million deal with a vesting option for a third year. He was coming off a run of four seasons in which he averaged 30 starts per year with a 3.48 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. There was some risk, of course. Happ is 36 years old and you just never know when a player in his 30s will drop off.
Happ dropped off, it was disappointing. His strikeout rate fell and his home run rate shot up to a career worst 2.0 HR/9. Only four starting pitchers with 100 or more innings have allowed more home runs per nine innings than Happ. In particular, he’s been crushed by right-handed hitters, allowing a .265/.324/.502 batting line and 28 homers in 116.7 innings to righties.
RP—Edwin Díaz, New York Mets
- Projection: 65 IP, 2.41 ERA, 2.45 FIP, 13.8 K/9, 2.0 WAR
- Actual: 55.3 IP, 5.69 ERA, 4.48 FIP, 15.5 K/9, 0.0 WAR
Díaz was the second-best reliever in baseball in 2018, according to FanGraphs WAR. He had a 1.96 ERA, 1.61 FIP, 0.79 WHIP, and struck out an incredible 44.3 percent of the batters he faced. His 57 saves were tied for second-most all-time in one season with Bobby Thigpen (1990). The Mariners traded Díaz and Robinson Canó to the Mets in the offseason and Diaz has struggled mightily in the Big Apple. He still has an impressive strikeout rate (38.8 percent), but he’s walked more hitters than last year and his home run rate has skyrocketed (2.3 HR/9, second-worst in baseball for relievers with 40 or more innings).
Dishonorable Mention RP—Blake Treinen, Oakland Athletics
- Projection: 70 IP, 2.88 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 9.8 K/9, 1.6 WAR
- Actual: 58.7 IP, 4.91 ERA, 5.15 FIP, 9.1 K/9, -0.3 WAR
The only reliever with more WAR than Díaz last year was Blake Treinen. Like Díaz, Treinen has really struggled in 2019. That’s disappointing. His ERA has ballooned from 0.78 to 4.91 and his WHIP is nearly double what it was last year (0.83 to 1.62). His strikeout rate is down and his walk rate is way up. He’s also allowed nine home runs in 58.7 innings after giving up just two dingers in 80.3 innings in 2018.
