The 2020 MLB Season: You Never Know
Joaquín Andújar, a talented pitcher for the St. Louis Cardinals in the 1980s, allegedly said, “There is one word in America that says it all, and that word is, ‘You never know.’” That sentiment is more true about the 2020 MLB season than any season in baseball history. MLB owners and players have reached an agreement to play a 60-game regular season that is expected to start on July 23 or 24 but, really, you never know if it will actually happen, especially with the U.S. experiencing a record high cases of the coronavirus on Friday.
Some MLB players have already tested positive and spring training facilities in Florida have been shut down. Florida, Arizona, Texas, and California are experiencing significant increases in cases over the last week. Those four states are home to one-third of the 30 teams in Major League Baseball. As Andújar says, “you never know” what the situation will be in a week, let alone a month, when the season is supposed to start. Even if the season starts in late July, you never know if they’ll get through a two-month regular season, followed by the playoffs.
Still, for optimism’s sake, let’s say there is a 60-game season. I’ve written previously about how the last eight seasons would have played out if baseball was limited to 60, 80, or 100-game seasons. The main takeaway from a 60-game season is that roughly 67.5% of the teams that had a playoff spot at the 60-game mark went on to make the playoffs in the actual 162-game season that year. That leaves plenty of room for some surprise contenders because, hat tip to Andújar, you never know.
A condensed season means condensed standings. There simply won’t be enough games for the Orioles to finish 50 games behind the Yankees in the AL East this year. By the same token, an Angels team that was projected to finish 13 games behind the Astros over a 162-game season might finish within five or six games with a 60-game schedule. A hot streak by the Angels and a cold streak by the Astros could flip the script and give the Angels the AL West title in an abbreviated 2020 campaign. You just never know.
At FanGraphs, Dan Szymborski released updated projected standings on Wednesday. We can compare these to the full-season projected standings from back in February to see how the divisions have tightened with fewer games on the schedule, along with other changes like injuries and playing time considerations. For example, in the AL East, the Yankees were projected to finish nine games ahead of the Rays and 15 games up on the Red Sox. Now the gap is two games and seven games.
In the AL Central, the Twins were projected to finish four games ahead of Cleveland and nine ahead of the White Sox. Now, the Twins are projected to finish one game ahead of Cleveland at the top of the division, with the White Sox just four games back. The White Sox’ playoff odds have increased from 17.9% to 36.2%, which is the greatest increase in the American League.
The most exciting division race looks like the NL Central, where the Cubs remain the division favorites, but their gap has shrunk from three or four games ahead of the Brewers, Cardinals, and Reds, to a one-game lead on all three teams. Even the Pittsburgh Pirates aren’t totally out of it. The ZiPS updated projections have them finishing six games behind the Cubs. Their odds of making the playoffs have jumped from 0.8% to 13.8%, which is the second-greatest increase in the NL behind the Diamondbacks. “You never know” could be the rallying cry for Pirates fans this year.
Four teams were projected to have essentially no chance to make the playoffs in a 162-game season, but now the Tigers (5.7% playoff odds), Marlins (5.0%), Mariners (4.0%), and Orioles (1.3%) are projected to have at least some small chance at the postseason. Considering that the Mariners haven’t been to the playoffs since 2001, a 1-in-25 chance to make it this year gives their fans a glimmer of hope.
On the other side of the coin, the teams with the greatest decrease in playoff odds are the top teams in baseball, like the Yankees, Astros, and Dodgers. Over 162 games, these talented teams would have plenty of time to get out to significant leads and an excellent chance to run away with their divisions. They all had playoff odds of 88% or higher in the February projections. Now, they’re in the 60-73% range. Their odds have dropped by an average of 28%.
Another aspect of the “you never know” 2020 season is the uncertainty for those who, like Pete Rose, prefer to have some money riding on baseball games. Oddsshark has over/unders for MLB win totals. We can compare these to the recent ZiPS projected standings to look for teams that might be a worthy investment. Spoiler alert: there aren’t many.
Nineteen of the 30 MLB teams are projected by ZiPS to within one win of their over/under win total at Oddsshark. You’re not going to get rich betting on, essentially, a 50-50 proposition. Another eight teams are projected by ZiPS to within two of their over/under win total. That’s still risky business, my friends.
That leaves just three teams. The Baltimore Orioles have an over/under win total of 21.5. ZiPS projects them to win 19 (-2.5). Similarly, the Texas Rangers have an over/under win total of 29.5. ZiPS projects them to win 27 (-2.5). Finally, our old friends the Seattle Mariners have an over/under win total of 25. ZiPS projects them to win 22 (-3.0). So the Mariners are your best bet on the board. Take the under for Seattle and dance all the way to the bank, even if their long-suffering fans won’t be happy if they come up short of 25 wins.
Even that might be risky, though. Baseball-Reference.com is simulating the 2020 season with Out of the Park Baseball and guess which team is leading the AL West as of Wednesday evening? Yep, the Seattle Mariners currently lead their division with a record of 49-33. That’s baseball in 2020: you just never know.
