Offense is Down Across the Majors in Spite of Astros Intentional Walks
With little fanfare in a stadium without fans, history was made on July 29 when Houston Astros manager Dusty Baker called for relief pitcher Cy Sneed to intentionally walk Cody Bellinger in a game against the Dodgers. This bit of strategy snapped a 207-game streak during which the Houston Astros intentional walk count was exactly zero. This streak included the first five games of this Bizarro World 2020 season, all 162 games of the 2019 season, and the final 40 games of the 2018 season.
Until that streak-breaking free pass, the contemporary Houston Astros had disdained the intentional walk more than any team in baseball history. In addition to setting an unbreakable record by issuing zero intentional walks last year, the Astros set the previous mark by issuing just four intentional walks in 2018.
The Cy Sneed intentional walk was just the beginning for Dusty Baker and the Astros. Three days later, Nivaldo Rodriguez issued the team’s second free pass. The next day, Blake Taylor and Andre Scrubb each dished out a freebie. Five days later, Dusty was at it again, directing Cy Sneed to put Robbie Grossman on first in a game against Oakland.
In the span of eight games from July 29 to August 7, the Astros issued more intentional walks than they had in 364 games spanning the entire 2018 and 2019 seasons. Because of Dusty Baker’s generosity, the Astros currently lead the league in free passes (through August 9).
My first thought was that this could be a Dusty Baker thing. He’s an “old school” manager whose first experience leading a Major League ballclub was in 1993, back when the Internet as we know it was in its infancy. To get online in those days we had to use a dial-up modem and listen to that awful dial-up modem sound. Good times.
Baker managed the Giants from 1993 to 2002, the Cubs from 2003 to 2006, the Reds from 2008 to 2013, and the Nationals in 2016 and 2017. All of those teams are in the National League, which has had a higher rate of intentional passes than the American League every year since the statistic became official in 1955. With Dusty Baker being a longtime National League manager, I figured maybe he was more likely than most to issue intentional walks.
On the other hand, I considered that it could be less of a Dusty Baker thing and more of a “new extra-innings rule” thing. If you’ve been following baseball this year, you’ve undoubtedly heard about the new rule for extra innings. In order to determine a winner sooner rather than later, teams start each extra inning with a runner on second base. All five of the intentional walks issued by the Astros have been in extra innings, which might suggest the new extra-innings rule is at least partially to blame.
Some History
Using the Baseball-Reference Stathead tool, I explored the world of intentional walks. With the caveat that we’re only two-and-a-half weeks into the season—so this year’s numbers will change over the next seven weeks—it’s clear that teams are issuing fewer intentional walks this year than in any previous season.
The intentional walk has been officially tracked since 1955. Because intentional walks as a percent of plate appearances is not intuitive, I’ve converted this percentage to intentional walks per 600 plate appearances (IBB per 600 PA), which is a full season of playing time. This is the general trend for how common the intentional walk has been since 1955:
5.2 IBB per 600 PA—1955 to 1972
5.0 IBB per 600 PA—1973 to 1994 (Advent of the DH in 1973)
4.1 IBB per 600 PA—1995 to 2008
3.3 IBB per 600 PA—2009 to 2019
1.3 IBB per 600 PA—2020 (through August 9)
Intentional walks have been trending down since the 1970s, with a significant drop during the high-offense era that started in 1995, another drop from 2009 to 2019, and the most significant drop of all this season. As mentioned above, we’ve never seen a lower rate of intentional walks than we’ve seen this year.
AL versus NL and the Universal DH
While intentional walks have trended down across baseball, there is a difference between the two leagues. Consider the same time frames from above split into AL/NL rates (IBB per 600 PA):
AL—4.5, NL—5.9, 1955 to 1972
AL—4.0, NL—6.2, 1973 to 1994 (Advent of the DH in 1973)
AL—3.5, NL—4.8, 1995 to 2008
AL—2.6, NL—3.9, 2009 to 2019
AL—1.4, NL—1.3, 2020 (Universal DH)
National League teams issued more intentional walks than American League teams even before the DH came into existence in 1973, but the DH increased the difference between the leagues. In the 18 seasons prior to the DH being added to the AL, the difference between the leagues was 1.4 IBB/600 PA. In the 20 years after the DH was added to the AL, the difference between the leagues was 2.2 IBB/600 PA. From 1995 to 2019, the difference between the leagues has been roughly 1.3 IBB per 600 PA.
The introduction of the DH to the National League this season has evened things up. Teams no longer have the option of walking the batter in front of the pitcher during games in National League parks and that change can be seen in the numbers. For the first time since intentional walks have been officially tracked, we are seeing more free passes in the AL than the NL.
What About That Extra Innings Rule?
With teams beginning each extra inning with a runner on second, it wouldn’t be surprising to see more intentional walks. Say, for example, the first batter makes an out that fails to advance the runner to third base. Now there is one out with a man on second. Some managers may choose to intentionally walk the next guy to set up a double-play. With this in mind, I wondered if there was a higher rate of intentional walks in extra innings this season compared to previous seasons. To answer this question, I looked at the five-year stretch from 2015 to 2019.
2015-2019
2.9 IBB per 600 PA overall
2.7 IBB per 600 PA in the first nine innings
17.0 IBB per 600 PA in extra innings
2020
1.3 IBB per 600 PA overall
1.0 IBB per 600 PA in the first nine innings
21.2 IBB per 600 PA in extra innings
Even though the rate of intentional walks has gone down overall, it has actually gone up in extra innings. This would suggest the new extra innings rule has had an effect. Of course, this includes the Houston Astros, with all five of their intentional walks coming in extras. How much is Dusty Baker personally responsible for the effect we’re seeing? Quite a bit, actually.
2020 (excluding the Astros)
1.2 IBB per 600 PA overall
1.1 IBB per 600 PA in the first nine innings
10.3 IBB per 600 PA in extra innings
When we remove Astros pitchers from the equation, we end up with teams issuing 1.1 IBB per 600 PA during regulation and 10.3 IBB per 600 PA in extra innings, with both rates being lower than during the five-year stretch from 2015-2019.
What Have We Learned Today?
The rate of intentional walks is down significantly in the first two-and-a-half weeks of the 2020 season compared to previous seasons, so much so that we’re on pace for a record low rate of free passes. The primary driver of this reduction is the National League, which is using the DH for the first time.
Even though intentional walks are down overall, managers are calling for intentional walks more often in extra innings when compared to the previous five years, with Dusty Baker greatly affecting these numbers. With the Astros removed from the equation, teams are issuing intentional walks less often in extra innings than in previous seasons.
