How Can the Braves Convert Huascar Ynoa’s Raw Talent into Major League Success?
This post is the latest in Off The Bench Baseball’s running series on Huascar Ynoa. Find other takes on Ynoa here and here.
No team dominates their division quite like the Atlanta Braves. The club cruised to the National League East title yet again in 2020 marking the third consecutive season in which they have accomplished the feat. Despite their well-known status as a perennial contender, it would be hard to attribute much of their overall success to the pitching staff, especially Huascar Ynoa.
Coming into the 2020 season, the Braves’ rotation looked to be as strong as ever. Off-season signees Cole Hamels and Felix Hernandez each brought admirable track records and plenty of hardware to Atlanta when they agreed to one-year deals with the club in December and January respectively. These veteran additions were seen as compliments to emerging stars Max Fried and Mike Soroka who were each looking to build off of their breakout 2019 campaigns.
While everything looked good on paper, the Braves’ rotation fell apart one piece at a time. Hernandez opted out of playing during the Covid-19 shortened season due to health concerns and Hamels inevitably threw just over three frames in his debut season with the club. Soroka tore his achilles after making just three starts and 2018 All-Star Mike Foltynewicz was designated for assignment after his 2019 struggles reappeared during his first and only start.
After receiving abysmal production from Touki Toussaint, Robbie Erlin and deadline acquisition Tommy Milone, the Braves turned to their number 11 overall prospect Huascar Ynoa in hopes of better results.
Ynoa was originally signed by the Minnesota Twins as an amateur free agent back in 2014. He spent parts of the next three seasons in their minor league system before being shipped to the Braves in a 2017 deal that most notably netted the club lefty Jamie Garcia. Huascar Ynoa briefly debuted with Atlanta during the 2019 season and was tattooed in his three innings of work.
Ynoa was called upon for 21.2 big league innings during the 2020 regular season and delivered mediocre results. While his unsightly 5.82 earned run average and 5.4 walks per nine innings could certainly be improved upon, a deeper analysis of his body of work points towards the potential for future success.
At its best, Ynoa’s pitch arsenal features a fastball that sits in the 94-96 mph range and a sharp breaking ball that clocks in just under 10mph less. While he does throw a changeup, he does so just over nine percent of the time. Further development of this missing pitch is going to be crucial for Ynoa moving forward as a strong changeup would keep hitters guessing in the batter’s box after having faced his natural velocity.
While he does have 79 career minor league starts under his belt, Atlanta will have to decide whether or not to develop him as a reliever. He has thrown no more than four innings in any Major League outing and delivered some of his best work out of the bullpen during the 2020 season.
Although it is difficult to draw conclusions based on Huascar Ynoa’s minuscule body of Major League work, certain advanced statistics suggest that he has performed much better as a reliever.
Aside from the nearly seven run difference in his earned run average, Ynoa held batters to a .194 batting average during his nine innings of relief. This number far outshines the .327 mark that opposing hitters posted against the lefty when he appeared as a starting pitcher.
The difference in both slugging and on-base percentage is eye opening as well. As a reliever, Ynoa held hitters to a .333 OBP and a minuscule .290 SLG, however as a starter, these figures blossomed to .410 and .500 respectively. Regardless of when he pitches, there has been one issue that has haunted Ynoa for his entire professional career: walks.
Although the sample size is small, Ynoa’s career 5.1 BB/9 (walks per nine innings) is alarmingly high. The 4.1 BB/9 that he posted over his five Minor League seasons shows that this issue is not one that he developed at the Major League level.
Additional statistics allude to the fact that the high walk rate may be what is holding the lefty back from reaching his maximum potential. In 2020, opposing batters hit just .245 against Ynoa when the bases were empty, however when men were on base, that number skyrocketed to .324. Another cause for concern is that eight of the 13 walks that Ynoa allowed during this past season came when there was at least one man on base. This shows that he loses composure and control during higher leverage situations.
Huascar Ynoa does not feature a triple-digit fastball and his career 7.3 K/9 (strikeouts per nine innings) is underwhelming in today’s game. His inability to strike batters out at a higher rate is going to affect his ability to escape those crowded situations that his excessive walks create.
If there is any argument for Huascar Ynoa becoming a full-time starter, it begins and ends with the command of his pitches. Controlling his inflated walk rate is going to be the key to his success as fewer walks will lead to a lower pitch count and longer outings. Additionally, he will be facing fewer batters with men on base which will almost certainly lead to a lower earned run average and better overall statistics.
Huascar Ynoa flashed his potential during specific individual outings in 2020 leading Atlanta to believe that the best has yet to come. His talent is undeniable and Braves’ pitching coach Rick Kranitz has aided the development of several star pitchers over the course of his esteemed coaching career. Ynoa will enter the 2021 season at just 22 years of age and will remain under team control until 2026. His organization has plenty of time to develop him into a consistent contributor however a few minor alterations could lead to potential excellence sooner rather than later.
– Michael Porter
