Can the Dodgers Still Rely on Closer Kenley Jansen?
There was once a time when 2Pac’s “California Love” resonating through Chavez Ravine meant Dodger fans could sit back and relax because it only meant one thing: game over. Closer Kenley Jansen was on his way. He was going to throw you a cutter and you weren’t going to hit it.
While this year’s top-seeded Dodgers arguably boast the deepest roster among the franchise’s current run of eight straight division titles, there are still question marks surrounding the veteran right-hander who was once unquestionably the best reliever in the game.
Last Wednesday night closing out a Game One Wild Card win against the Brewers, Jansen threw just two cutters that exceeded 90 mph, including a season-low offering that clocked in at just 86 mph. While he pitched around a two-out walk to hold a 4-2 lead, the concerning drop in velocity led to an uninspired vote of confidence following the game from Dave Roberts who implied Los Angeles would be moving to a closer by committee format for the rest of the postseason, of which Jansen would still be part of the mix. Roberts described Jansen’s stuff as “lacking teeth” after the game.
Then in Game Two of the NLDS, closer Kenley Jansen faced 5 batters, throwing 30 pitches, and retired only two of them. Jansen again threw just 3 of 26 cutters above 90 mph. Joe Kelley was summoned to close out the game with the tying run on base.
It’s a far cry for the now 33-year-old vet who was once the most dominant reliever in the game with a pitch that was one of the most dreaded by opposing hitters. The former minor league catcher would come out and dare you to hit his cutter, throwing it at a Mariano Rivera-esque rate of 91% when the pitch averaged just over 92 mph in 2012. Jansen’s diminished velocity is nothing new in 2020; his average velocity has decreased every season since 2016. His cutter sat just under 91 mph during the regular season with an overall average fastball velocity that ranked in the 27th percentile in baseball this year.
But even when we consider closer Kenley Jansen’s career downward trend in velocity, Wednesday night was still particularly alarming. During the regular season this year, only 12 of the 276 cutters he threw flashed under 90 on the radar gun. By in large, the cutter still makes up the majority of Jansen’s offerings, though he has been mixing in a healthy dose of four-seamers (28.5%) and sliders (9.6%). He’s thrown that four-seam fastball with the highest frequency of his career this season.
Outside of a couple rough outings, Jansen was back to his usual dominance this year after reshaping his arsenal to compensate for his diminished velocity. For a player who has dealt with heart problems in the past, it was a feel good story to see Jansen get back to a semblance of his former self. He finished the regular season with a 3.33 ERA, 11 saves and 33 strikeouts across 24 1/3 innings with positive signs from his underlying peripherals, including a 2.94 xERA that factors in quality of contact, his best season by the metric since 2017 when he finished fifth in the Cy Young Award voting.
Where he’s lacking in velocity from earlier in his career, he’s making up for in inducing weak contact. His opponent exit velocity ranks in the 99th percentile in baseball this year at 82.7 mph, over six miles per hour lower than the MLB average, his hard-hit rate of 14% is the best in baseball, and his barrel rate also impressively ranks in the 91st percentile.
But aside from the weak contact induced, Jansen tweaked his pitch mix and still missed bats at an elite rate this year.
The Dodgers all-time saves leader has made mention of his visit to Driveline Baseball this offseason, where he focused on making tweaks to his famed cutter. It’s paid dividends not unlike it has for Clayton Kershaw, who experienced a similar career renaissance this season from good to great again. Jansen’s cut fastball has more vertical movement than it’s had at any point in his career and he’s effectively tunneling the pitch, a term that describes making two different pitches follow the same path for as long as possible on their way to the batter, with his four-seamer that he’s thrown a career-high rate this year. It’s all led to a 32.4% K-rate that ranks in the 89th percentile in baseball and Jansen’s best K% since 2017, and a whiff rate that ranks in the upper quartile in MLB this year. These changes along with honing in on a new slider grip this Spring Training have led Jansen to dub himself “a complete pitcher” for the first time in his career.
Despite all these adjustments and encouraging signs of his underlying performance during MLB’s shortened regular season, expect Jansen’s leash to be short from Dave Roberts this postseason. With plenty of quality options nearby in the Dodgers bullpen, “closer” Kenley Jansen may be an outdated term:
- Caleb Ferguson had an under-the-radar dominant 2020; the lefty struck out 36 percent of the hitters he faced this year and is outranked only by the Brewers’ Devin Williams in most quality of contact underlying statistics.
- Jake McGee had an excellent season that went unnoticed because of the Dodgers mostly bludgeoning their opponents as they sleepwalked through a 43-win season.
- Brusdar Graterol’s two-seamer is the stuff of nightmares. The former Twins farmhand acquired by the Dodgers in the Kenta Maeda trade looks like LA’s closer of the future and was the on the mound on Thursday when the final out was recorded.
While Jansen has proven he can make the necessary adjustments to still be an elite reliever despite diminished velocity, the high leverage chances for him could be limited going forward. With one year left on his $80 million contract and a proven commitment to continually hone his craft, Jansen still has some left in the tank to showcase himself as one of baseball’s best in relief. Unfortunately, that platform might not include celebrating on the mound after recording the final out of this year’s World Series.
