The Case for Amed Rosario
I’m going to preface this assemblance of words by saying that as a Queens native, I have been through the ups and many downs of being a Mets fan. 2015 was amazing. 2018 was depressing. I still look at Citifield with pride (somehow) and still have the bitter taste the Wilpons insisted on keeping in the Mets fanbase’s mouth. However, sunny skies look to be on the horizon with the sale of the team, the rumored return of Sandy Alderson, and the promises of Cohen to revamp the team’s analytics department from the ground up.
But, as a lifelong Mets fan, I’ve been sold many lies and half-truths, so this article will only focus on reality, and one question that is definitively in front of us: Do the Mets need a shortstop?
Amed Rosario has been highly touted since his signing in July 2012. The Mets outbid both the Astros and White Sox for his services and moved him aggressively through the system. He was always seen as a sure thing on defense, but the bat was the question (as it still is today). 2014 was his first time on noted prospect lists and by 2014 he had climbed to be a consensus top 10 youngster.
To understand Rosario, it’s that latter list to which we must compare him, specifically the other 3 shortstops in the overall top 10 that year: Gleyber Torres (2018 Debut) (classified as a SS on 2017 prospect lists, so treated as such for this exercise); JP Crawford (2017 Debut); and Willy Adames (2018 Debut). Torres (though now at 2B) and Adames are becoming household names, while Crawford is performing well but still establishing himself.
Below is how they have fared in their careers to date.
Amed Rosario
| Season | Team | G | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | EV | BsR | Off | Def | WAR |
| 2017 | Mets | 46 | 170 | 4 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 1.8% | 28.8% | .145 | .330 | .248 | .271 | .394 | .282 | 75 | 84.3 | -0.2 | -5.6 | 2.8 | 0.3 |
| 2018 | Mets | 154 | 592 | 9 | 76 | 51 | 24 | 4.9% | 20.1% | .125 | .310 | .256 | .295 | .381 | .290 | 85 | 87.8 | 5.0 | -5.9 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| 2019 | Mets | 157 | 655 | 15 | 75 | 72 | 19 | 4.7% | 18.9% | .144 | .338 | .287 | .323 | .432 | .318 | 100 | 89.4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 5.9 | 2.7 |
| 2020 | Mets | 46 | 147 | 4 | 20 | 15 | 0 | 2.7% | 23.1% | .119 | .305 | .252 | .272 | .371 | .277 | 76 | 86.5 | -0.5 | -5.1 | 2.7 | 0.1 |
| Total | – – – | 403 | 1564 | 32 | 187 | 148 | 50 | 4.3% | 20.8% | .135 | .323 | .268 | .302 | .403 | .300 | 89 | 88.0 | 5.6 | -15.5 | 12.7 | 4.6 |
Willy Adames
| Season | Team | G | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | EV | BsR | Off | Def | WAR |
| 2018 | Rays | 85 | 323 | 10 | 43 | 34 | 6 | 9.6% | 29.4% | .128 | .378 | .278 | .348 | .406 | .328 | 110 | 86.7 | 1.0 | 4.9 | -2.3 | 1.4 |
| 2019 | Rays | 152 | 584 | 20 | 69 | 52 | 4 | 7.9% | 26.2% | .164 | .320 | .254 | .317 | .418 | .313 | 97 | 88.5 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 8.5 | 2.8 |
| 2020 | Rays | 54 | 205 | 8 | 29 | 23 | 2 | 9.8% | 36.1% | .222 | .388 | .259 | .332 | .481 | .347 | 124 | 88.8 | 2.0 | 8.1 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Total | – – – | 291 | 1112 | 38 | 141 | 109 | 12 | 8.7% | 29.0% | .164 | .348 | .262 | .329 | .426 | .323 | 106 | 88.0 | 5.3 | 12.9 | 7.5 | 5.6 |
J.P. Crawford
| Season | Team | G | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | EV | BsR | Off | Def | WAR |
| 2017 | Phillies | 23 | 87 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 18.4% | 25.3% | .086 | .306 | .214 | .356 | .300 | .303 | 83 | 83.4 | 0.0 | -1.9 | 4.1 | 0.5 |
| 2018 | Phillies | 49 | 138 | 3 | 17 | 12 | 2 | 9.4% | 26.8% | .179 | .286 | .214 | .319 | .393 | .313 | 95 | 88.2 | 0.7 | -0.2 | -1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2019 | Mariners | 93 | 396 | 7 | 43 | 46 | 5 | 10.9% | 21.0% | .145 | .275 | .226 | .313 | .371 | .296 | 86 | 85.0 | 0.7 | -6.3 | 5.5 | 1.3 |
| 2020 | Mariners | 53 | 232 | 2 | 33 | 24 | 6 | 9.9% | 16.8% | .083 | .303 | .255 | .336 | .338 | .303 | 94 | 85.8 | -0.2 | -1.9 | 4.9 | 1.1 |
| Total | – – – | 218 | 853 | 12 | 101 | 88 | 14 | 11.1% | 21.2% | .128 | .288 | .231 | .325 | .359 | .301 | 89 | 85.5 | 1.2 | -10.4 | 13.2 | 3.2 |
Gleyber Torres
| Season | Team | G | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | EV | BsR | Off | Def | WAR |
| 2018 | Yankees | 123 | 484 | 24 | 54 | 77 | 6 | 8.7% | 25.2% | .209 | .321 | .271 | .340 | .480 | .349 | 122 | 88.9 | -1.0 | 11.4 | -7.9 | 2.0 |
| 2019 | Yankees | 144 | 604 | 38 | 96 | 90 | 5 | 7.9% | 21.4% | .256 | .296 | .278 | .337 | .535 | .358 | 125 | 89.1 | -0.5 | 18.6 | -2.6 | 3.6 |
| 2020 | Yankees | 42 | 160 | 3 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 13.8% | 17.5% | .125 | .286 | .243 | .356 | .368 | .326 | 106 | 88.6 | -0.3 | 0.9 | -3.4 | 0.2 |
| Total | – – – | 309 | 1248 | 65 | 167 | 183 | 12 | 9.0% | 22.4% | .222 | .304 | .271 | .340 | .493 | .351 | 121 | 88.9 | -1.8 | 30.9 | -13.9 | 5.8 |
*graphs courtesy of Fangraphs.com
There’s alot to unpack here, but let’s start with WAR and Games Played.
2018 Debut – Gleyber Torres WAR – 5.8 GP – 309 WAR per GP – 53.27
2018 Debut – Willy Adames WAR – 5.6 GP – 291 WAR per GP – 51.96
2017 Debut – Amed Rosario WAR – 4.6 GP – 403 WAR per GP – 87.61
2017 Debut – JP Crawford WAR – 3.2 GP – 218 WAR per GP – 68.13
From a bang for your buck standpoint, Adames has been the best of the bunch, ever so slightly besting Torres (less is more, of course, in terms of WAR per GP). Roughly, these numbers have Adames and Torres as 3 Win players over 162 games, Crawford at 2.5 Wins, and the man in question Rosario, rounding at the quartet at just under 2 Wins.
However, a former top 10 prospect is not a player you give up on easily, and Mets prospects in general always seem to bloom once departing Queens. (See D’Arnaud, Travis: Cleanup hitter for the Atlanta Braves in the NLCS.)
So now let’s take a deeper dive into Rosario’s trends and see if there’s any light at end of the Exit 9E tunnel off the Grand Central Parkway.
A quick refresher of Rosario’s #s:
| Season | Team | G | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | EV | BsR | Off | Def | WAR |
| 2017 | Mets | 46 | 170 | 4 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 1.8% | 28.8% | .145 | .330 | .248 | .271 | .394 | .282 | 75 | 84.3 | -0.2 | -5.6 | 2.8 | 0.3 |
| 2018 | Mets | 154 | 592 | 9 | 76 | 51 | 24 | 4.9% | 20.1% | .125 | .310 | .256 | .295 | .381 | .290 | 85 | 87.8 | 5.0 | -5.9 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| 2019 | Mets | 157 | 655 | 15 | 75 | 72 | 19 | 4.7% | 18.9% | .144 | .338 | .287 | .323 | .432 | .318 | 100 | 89.4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 5.9 | 2.7 |
| 2020 | Mets | 46 | 147 | 4 | 20 | 15 | 0 | 2.7% | 23.1% | .119 | .305 | .252 | .272 | .371 | .277 | 76 | 86.5 | -0.5 | -5.1 | 2.7 | 0.1 |
| Total | – – – | 403 | 1564 | 32 | 187 | 148 | 50 | 4.3% | 20.8% | .135 | .323 | .268 | .302 | .403 | .300 | 89 | 88.0 | 5.6 | -15.5 | 12.7 | 4.6 |
The first thing that stands out is the defense. Although defensive statistics are finicky, Rosario has been above average each year in the bigs. This has been his calling card since he was signed, and although he may be error-prone in spurts, overall he is a positive at a premium defensive position, and one the Mets have had trouble filling since the days of Jose Reyes. With team defense a longtime sore spot for the Mets, a solid infield captain is critical.
Now let’s look at the offense. Amed is never going to be a high OBP guy for the fact that he does not walk often. However, he is a fast runner and contact-oriented hitter, which has some upside. In 2019, Rosario cracked league-average in wRC+ (100), on the strength of increased exit velocity (2 MPH) and better launch angle (fewer ground balls). These tweaks had Rosario starting to resemble a cornerstone of the team. He was a net positive offensively and defensively, and gave the Mets hope that at least part of the holes up the middle were plugged for years to come.
However, 2020 he regressed in every way offensively. He struck out more, walked less, hit the ball 3(!) MPH slower and just looked lost at the plate. He eventually lost the starting job and became the lesser part of a platoon with another top 100 Mets infield prospect, Andres Gimenez.
Gimenez and Rosario have similar skill sets: questionable bats with above-averaget-to-spectacular defense. Gimenez played surprisingly well in 2020 and had Mets fans clamoring to give him the full time job. In New York, that’s understandable, but I believe the calls are misplaced.
The offense profiles are the true differentiator. Rosario has 3 inches and almost 30 pounds on Gimenez, and has already shown that he can hit double digit home runs, play good defense and slug over .400 over a full MLB season. Gimenez has slugged over. 400 once in his minor league career (sample size over 50 games), and in his first 50 games as a Major Leaguer he slugged .398. Now, for a player with no AAA experience who was thrust into the Big Leagues by COVID and injuries, his WRC+ of 105 is pretty damn impressive. But this is a small sample size, a potential aberration in Gimenez’s offensive profile, and an overreaction by fans.
Ultimately, Gimenez probably needs more time at AAA to hone his swing and gain weight so that he can put more impact into the baseball. His EV this season was 86.8. Rosario’s was 86.5. One player had a WRC+ of 76, the other 105. To believe that Gimenez’s performance this season is sustainable is to have a dangerous abundance of hope (and any abundance is dangerous in Queens, after all).
Rosario batted over .300 in the last month of the 2020 season. He was top 10 in steals in the NL the last 2 years. The glove has gotten better every single year. He’s on his rookie contract through 2024 (age 28 season). Add in the fact Rosario’s Exit Velocity in 2019 was a higher EV than either Adames or Torres have ever achieved, and it’s not hard to dream of what an analytically-inclined front office would be able to get out of Rosario with a minor swing change and adequate coaching.
In summary, to give up on a former top 10 prospect after a bad 46 game sample size is silly and, I hate to say it, very Mets-like. Hopefully Cohen has learned from the many, many, many mistakes of the Wilpons, and holds on to a burgeoning cornerstone.
The team’s patience will either be rewarded in the emergence of a homegrown star, or with the opportunity to shop in a stacked 2021-2022 free agent class. Trevor Story, Javier Baez, Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager and Carlos Correa are all slated to be free agents, and will be under the ages of 28. An extension can happen at any time, but it is unlikely for all 5 to be extended. And with the financial might that comes with Mr. Steve Cohen, I think the Mets will have no problem bidding at the top of the market.
