The Key to Randy Arozarena’s Historic Postseason
A lot has been written about the historic postseason from this year’s October hero Randy Arozarena. The 25-year-old Cuban phenom made the Tampa Bay Rays must-watch television this October with at-bats that never seemed done and the chance for a homer at any moment. His 27 hits following the regular season was already a record for a single postseason after smashing a Clayton Kershaw offering about an inch above the strikezone to get Tampa Bay on the board in Game 5 of the World Series Sunday night.
Going into Game 6, Arozarena was clearly locked in. This red-hot streak for the former Cardinals farmhand Arozarena has been most eye-opening in his newfound ability to hammer the breaking ball in and out of the zone, something that he had been one of baseball’s weakest at during his brief Major League career before this October. It’s impressive even in a season dominated by the longball.
In 2020, Arozarena had the biggest slugging percentage differential between facing the fastball when compared to his slugging against all other non-fastball offerings.
As highlighted below, the Cuban import hit for more power than any other Major League batsmen with at least 200 fastballs seen this year (we used Baseball Savant’s definition that includes cutters as well as the usual four-seam, two-seam and sinker delineation), crushing the heater to the tune of an .895 slugging percentage.
By wOBA against the fastball, he trailed only presumptive NL MVP candidate Freddie Freeman (.524 vs .530) and ranked 11th in baseball in expected wOBA (xwOBA), which factors in quality of contact.
Arozarena Vs Fastball and Non-Fastballs, 2020 Regular Season
(MLB rankings incl. batters, min. 200 pitches faced)
| Vs Fastballs | Vs Non-Fastballs | |||
| Value | MLB Rank | Value | MLB Rank | |
| Batting Avg | .316 | 73rd | .231 | 160th |
| Slugging% | .895 | 1st | .269 | 293rd |
| wOBA | .524 | 2nd | .240 | 264th |
| xWOBA | .449 | 11th | .201 | 362nd |
In the meantime, the young Arozarena found an adjustment period when facing breaking and offspeed stuff.
He hit a still respectable .231 average against non-fastballs, but slugged just .269 when facing secondary stuff. When we factor in quality of contact, it appears bad-luck on everything else but the fastball was not the case. Given a small sample following his Major League call-up on August 30, he ranks even worse when factoring in exit velocity and launch angles on his batted balls against breaking and offspeed offerings.
So, what about the postseason? As alluded to in the open, Arozarena is learning to handle the offspeed and breaking stuff- 16 of his 27 postseason hits and 2 of his 9 homers coming off of non-fastballs heading into Game 6, where he had two hits, including a record setting 10th playoff home run.
While a comprehensive summary of pitch tracking data from this postseason is not easily accessible yet, we can surmise teams have attempted to exploit this previous weakness and Randy has made the adjustment. Here are a few notable examples from Arozarena’s historic run:
Sept. 30 vs Toronto: Unlocking Hyun-Jin Ryu
It’s hard to fault Hyun-Jin Ryu for anything he did against Arozarena on the second game of what ended as a short Wild Card Series. We didn’t know Randy Arozarena was the destroyer of worlds he is now.
In his first inning at-bat facing the soon to be Cuban superstar, Ryu tries to get the rook to expand the zone with a 1-1 changeup, an excellent pitch given the spot that Arozarena smacks into the opposite field for a single. Next time up just an inning later, Ryu tries a get me over curveball to steal a first pitch strike. Randy hammers the hanging breaking ball over Teoscar Hernandez’s head and off the wall for a double. HE’S NOT SUPPOSED TO BE ABLE TO DO THIS.
The Blue Jays had done their homework, but it didn’t pay off. While facing Ross Stripling with a 7-1 Rays lead already in the third, Arozarena gets a 3-2 slider that catches too much of the plate and doubles to complete a three-hit day against three different non-fastball offerings: a changeup, a curveball, and then a slider. SOMETHING IS DIFFERENT, GUYS.
October 5: Conquering Gerrit Cole
Following the brief two-game sweep of the Baby Jays, it’s on to the mighty New York Yankees and a draw with baseball’s best pitcher in game one. Arozarena wastes no time after a four-day layover before the division series.
After falling behind 2-0 to the still relatively unknown Rays outfielder, Cole decides to let it eat with his signature fastball at the top of the zone, one of the toughest pitches in baseball to handle, but Randy hammers it, carrying 410 feet out to center and off the bat 107 mph.
Next time around, Cole won’t give in with a fastball on a 2-1 count and instead goes to a slider, again a pitch that the book on Arozarena says is a good choice. Arozarena delivers with a crushed single, traveling at 102.6 mph off the bat.
Randy finishes a trifecta off of Cole, ripping a third offering with an over 100 mph exit velo, a single on a first-pitch fastball again well-placed at the top of the zone. HOW DO YOU SOLVE A PROBLEM LIKE AROZARENA? You don’t, apparently.
October 7: Tanaka Sticks to His Guns and Has No Answers
After singling and homering in Game 2, Arozarena shows off his newfound affinity for the breaking ball by going 3-for-3 against Masahiro Tanaka, all on sliders, including a first-pitch ambush hack to lead off the fifth inning that soars 398 feet with a 99.8 exit velocity and sends Tanaka to the showers.
October 13: Urquidy Doubles Up on the Curve and Doesn’t Have a Good Time
The Houston Astros might still be having nightmares about Arozarena after the Rays’ star hitter slashed .321/.367/.786 with 4 of his 10 postseason homers coming in the ALCS against the reigning pennant winners.
While he never went deep against Jose Urquidy, Arozarena twice turned on identical 2-2 curveballs for a pair of knocks against him, first a double to left field with one away in the third and later a single in the sixth that would be the second-to-last hitter Urquidy faced that day. Both are well-located curveballs with a 2-2 count that Arozarena effectively sits back on, showing his newfound ability to handle the breaking ball.
It’s too early to look ahead and wonder what the still young Arozarena could become and where he fits in the Rays’ long-term plans. For now, let’s admire a burgeoning October hero throwing away “the book on him” and continuing to make adjustments that have made the Rays up-and-down offense a force to be reckoned with this October. An exciting young player that was baseball’s best at doing damage on the fastball is doing damage on just about everything that comes his way.
