Los Angeles Angels Again Have Options
The playoffs this year were very entertaining. Besides the fact that we were grateful to have a distraction from the ever enlarging dumpster fire that is 2020, the best talent in the game was on display nightly. And it was beautiful. However something was missing. The game’s best player over the last decade was nowhere to be found. Mike Trout again got to watch October baseball from New Jersey instead of a dugout.
Mike Trout was failed again by his contemporaries and his employer. However, not from a total lack of trying, the Angels have signed Albert Pujols, Justin Upton, and Anthony Rendon to a combined half a billion dollars. Even luring Shoehei Ohtani to the Angels hasn’t been enough to get them over the hump.
So I’ve decided to pen an open letter to Mr. Arte Moreno, the owner of the Angels. Some might say, he just hired a new GM, Mr. Perry Minasian, why not address him. This is a fair ponderance. However, from what we’ve seen in Anaheim during Arte Moreno’s tenure as owner, he is the alpha and omega, the eternal final word. He infamously vetoed the Ross Stripling/Joc Pederson trade with the Dodgers (which I wrote about at length for this site). Apparently the Dodgers were also working on the Betts deal and taking too long for his taste to dot I’s and cross T’s. In Arte’s own words:
“It wasn’t all impatience,” Moreno said. “There were other things involved, too. … I just would rather not talk about it. That wasn’t going to happen, and it’s not happening.”
That is rather vague and provides zero clarity on the matter, but it does tell us that he is very involved in the day-to-day operation of the club. So now that this has been established, let us move to the thesis of this piece: How to get Mike Trout to the Playoffs. We’ve done this once before, well twice. Okay, maybe we’ve done it a lot.
But still. let us revel briefly in the greatness of Mr. Trout. Since his debut in 2011…
- 8x All-Star
- 3x AL MVP (4 2nd place finishes)
- 8x Silver Slugger
- Top 10 in HR, SB, OPS, WRC+, WAR
- 172 wRC+
- 76 WAR in 10 years
Analytical experts have been titillated by his unprecedented run, one that could end with him being the undisputed best player of all time. Many already believe that he is a HOF if he hangs it up today. The numbers back these predictions, and so does the eye test. Mike Trout is very, very, very good at baseball. For those less analytically inclined, here’s a quote from Hall of Fame Manager Tony La Russa which includes insight from current teammate and future HOFer Albert Pujols. (This is circa 2012)
“I can tell a quick story. My first year as an assignment scout for commissioner Selig; I’m touring the camps. One of the first stops is in Tempe, I go say hello to Mike. Then I say hello to Albert, and he points to the guy [Mike Trout]. He says ‘that’s the greatest player I’ve ever seen in my life’. And he was talking about Mike Trout, as a rookie. I said who is that? He says it’s Mike Trout, remember they sent him down and brought him back up?”
Albert Pujols had just finished up one of the most prolific runs a hitter has had in MLB history. He had just signed a $200+ Million Dollar Contract with the Angels. And even he was in awe of the Trout.
However great Mike Trout may end up being, there is one glaring statistic that pokes a major hole in his resume. He has yet to win a playoff series, having played only 3 playoff games, all in 2014. The Angels have not had a winning season since 2015. As talented as he is, he cannot will himself to a championship through generational greatness, a la LeBron James. Baseball is a 25 man battle each night, and it is the organization’s job to recognize that and support him.
I am going to use stats from the last 2 years because the 60 game sample of 2020 is too small to draw any meaningful trends.
The Offense
The Angels’ wRC+has been 102. A league average wRC+ is 100, so this is approximately 2 bettwe than average. That’s pretty good! It’s even 11th in baseball, but it could be considerably higher if not for self-inflicted wounds. Those self inflicted wounds are:
- Aging Albert Pujols. A favorite player of mine for many years, it pains me to watch as has not aged gracefully. He has not had a WRC+ over 100 since 2016. He has indicated numerous times that he will play out his contract, and it’s not a great look for a team to release a first ballot HOFer during his chase for 700 HRs. The Angel’s have given 0 reason to believe they will release him or substantially reduce his playing time. This is a black hole at 1B, which is harder to stomach as it’s an easier position to shoehorn a bat at.
- Not trading for Joc Pederson. As aforementioned, I detailed this in a previous article. In summary, Joc hits (Righties very well, Lefties ehh) as well or better than everyone in the Angel’s outfield mix, except for Trout. This was a miss.
- SS/C. Andrelton Simmons, although a wizard with the glove. Has regressed significantly with the bat, to the tune of a 85 WRC+. Catchers not named Jason Castro (Who only had 62 PA with the team) were all sub 100. These are premium positions; it’s harder to get offense and defense out of shortstop and catcher. However, these are still 2 significant holes, and GMs are paid to figure out these situations.
Alright, so you know what’s broken, on to the fixes.
The Fix:
Sign Marcus Semien and/or DJ LeMahieu and Re-Sign Jason Castro.
This all depends on the level of confidence in David Fletcher’s glove, which has been very good in the OF and at 2B. If the Angels think he can slide over and play a passable SS, which the metrics indicate he may be able to, then LeMahieu can be installed at 2B. His flexibility doesn’t hurt either since he can spell Rendon or Pujols/whomever is at first.
Ideally, the best move would be to sign both Semien and LeMahieu and release Pujols (very unlikely). This would put less pressure on Trout, and allows the catcher position to be focused on defense. A Jason Castro reunion should be in order either way, he had a 100 WRC+ with solid fielding metrics while mired in a slump; he’s a surprisingly valuable guy! The 3 of these players should cost under $120 Million Total (as per multiple projections). With Pujols’ contract coming off the books and Upton soon after, these are moves that make too much sense to make. This would easily Televate this offense to a top 7 range.
The Pitching
The following statistics are NSFW.
- Angel’s Relievers (This is the Good somehow) – 4.64 ERA
- Starters: 5.61 ERA
- Total: 5.11 ERA
Gross.
The takeaways are pretty simple, really:
- Med: Angel’s relievers have been meh. (15th Overall)
- Bad: Angel’s starters have been the worst in baseball. (30th Overall)
- Ugly: Combined there were only 3 worse pitching staffs in baseball. (27th Overall)
A combination of injuries and general ineffectiveness has plagued the Angel’s rotation for the entirety of Mike Trout’s career.
Dylan Bundy, though he has only been with the team for the previous 60 game season, is 3rd in WAR among all pitchers on the team for the last 2 years. Andrew Heaney and Griffin Canning are 1st and 2nd respectively and they have at least 80+ IP more than Bundy. The bright side is that the staff is so bad that almost any addition has a high chance of working out.
The fix:
Quantity over quality. Trevor Bauer would help tremendously. However he only pitches once every 5 days. Andrew Heaney, Griffin Canning and Dylan Bundy are fine to fill out the rotation. Ohtani is a question mark. Let’s add a few more high upside pieces that figure to be average-at-worst..
Step 1: Save Masahiro Tanaka from the bandbox in the Bronx.
He’s a veteran, he’s performed in the playoffs, and getting away from the AL East’s bandboxes and sluggers should prolong his career. Is he an ace anymore? No. Will he take the ball every 5 days and keep you in ballgames? Mostly, yes. His conservatively projected 3.1 WAR for next year would be more than any Angel’s pitcher in the last 2 years.
Step 2: Take a flier on James Paxton.
Yes, he has an extensive injury history, but that doesn’t exactly stand out among the rest of the injury prone Angels’ staff. His upside is unmatched by any other member of their rotation, excluding Ohtani. It was supposed to be Paxton and Bauer at the top of the market, but injuries derailed Paxton’s season, as is the story with his career. So why sign him?
He’s probably available on a one year deal (although 2 should be in order due to the injury history). He’s familiar with AL West ballparks. And despite the injury-riddled season his strikeout rate was actually the 2nd highest of his career in 2020.
These are the kind of low risk-high reward deals that new GM Perry Minasian needs to make to give the team real upside.
Step 3: Sign Jake Odorizzi
An intercostal strain resulting from a line drive to the chest and a blister derailed Odorizzi’s 2020. He sounds like an Angel pitcher already. However his 2019 was very good and he was a major part of the Twins 100 win 2019 season. He’s 31 and may want a 1-year deal to secure a larger pay day after corona-induced owner stinginess alleviates, but a respectful offer this offseason probably nets him 3-4 years. A 4-year deal at 11 million per year should work. He’s not an ace, but middle of the rotation guys are valuable contenders. Odorizzi helps to achieve our goal of raising the floor with some safety.
Yes I realize that gives the Angel’s 6 starters. If you follow baseball you know that SP depth is probably the most important indicator of a contender vs pretender. The pitchers that are the odd men out of the rotation are either moved to the bullpen, where some of them should have been anyway, or become depth, which the Angels desperately need.
Step 4: Give Brad Hand a Hand (filled with money)
The Indians declined the All Star Closer’s $10 million option for next year, as they seem hell bent on avoiding competitive baseball as a whole in 2021. But that’s good news for Arte and the boys. Hopefully Hand’s light usage in 2020 helps his velo bounce back next spring. His peripherals are still very good and he’s more of a pitcher than a flamethrower anyway.
He’s maybe not a top 5 closer anymore but 90% of Hand is still better than the rest of the current Angel’s pen. He also will probably be valued that way by the rest of the league so the price tag won’t be prohibitive. Hand provides a warm comforting security blanket for Joe Maddon and lets the returning guys (Kenyan Middleton) ease their way back in.
Summary
Here’s the summary of how I have spent Arte Moreno’s money.
- Sign Semien (3.5 WAR projected)
- Re-sign Jason Castro (1 WAR projected).
- Sign Tanaka (3.1 WAR projected),
- Sign Paxton (2.3 WAR projected),
- Sign Odorizzi (1.8 WAR projected)
- Sign Brad Hand (0.4 WAR projected).
Total Spent: $180-240M
Added WAR: 12.1
For approximately one Albert Pujols’ contract, the Angels are a dangerous and pretty deep team. And let’s say things go wrong, which they inevitably do. If these players reach HALF of their projections, that’s still 6 WAR. Projections don’t capture every possibility. However, if you add that to their current WAR projections, they suddenly look like the second best team in baseball next year.
- Dodgers – 44.4 WAR
- Angels 2.0 – 42.8 WAR
- Yankees – 40.1 WAR
- Padres – 39.8 WAR
- Twins – 38.6 WAR
It wouldn’t be too crazy either.
