Are the Mariners Trending Up for 2021?
Long mired in mediocrity, the Mariners are slumping through the longest active postseason drought of any team in any major North American sports league. They haven’t reached the playoffs since their 116-46 season back in 2001, so it’s been a minute. Even with this season’s expanded postseason field they failed to make the cut, falling just two games short of tying with the Astros for the 8th seed in the American League. Jerry Dipoto has been at the helm of the front office since 2016, and although he hasn’t led them to the promised land just yet, he has the Mariners trending in the right direction, having overseen an organization overhaul since he took over.
“Trader Jerry” Dipoto’s fundamental reworking of the team’s roster and investments in its farm system are getting really close to paying dividends, with the only question being how soon they will truly turn the corner at the big-league level.
He has been A.J. Preller’s biggest rival for the title of most active GM the past few seasons, not even letting silly things like hospitalizations keep him from making moves. When he came on the scene in Seattle, the Mariners were the oldest team in baseball (average age 30.7) and sported a bottom-ten farm system – not exactly a recipe for success. Fast forward four years and they were the second-youngest team in 2020 (average age 26.9) with a top-five farm system. (The youngest team last season? Preller’s Padres.)
Clearly there’s a youth movement afoot in the Pacific Northwest. With a few exceptions, most of their young talent hasn’t even cracked the majors yet – but they’re not far away. Their highest-rated prospect, Jarred Kelenic, is expected to get called up in May or June and will man the outfield alongside Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis for years to come.
Their other best prospect? Another outfielder, 19-year-old Julio Rodriguez, who won’t contribute to the big-league squad in 2021 but could round out one of the best outfields in baseball in the near future. Adding to their embarrassment of riches on the grass is incumbent right fielder Mitch Haniger and the speedy lefty prospect, Taylor Trammell. Trammell was just added to their 40-man roster in advance of the Rule 5 deadline and came to Seattle last August in a seven-player swap with – you guessed it – the Padres.
While that trade with the Padres netted them Trammell, young catcher Luis Torrens, Tommy John recipient Andres Muñoz, and a powerful utility option in Ty France, the best trade in Dipoto’s tenure has been his absolute fleecing of the Mets. Dipoto shrewdly sold high on Edwin Diaz after a brilliant season while simultaneously unloading Robinson Cano’s albatross contract (which looks even worse now) and bringing back a host of young talent including Kelenic. Depending on whether or not Kelenic turns into the perennial All-Star he has the potential to be, this could go down as the single most lopsided trade of the decade – with the Shelby Miller trade earning an honorable mention.
Dipoto’s playbook on how to build a winner might borrow more from Preller’s than just acquiring young players and racking up transactions. Hoarding prospects might just be step one – when it looks like a competitive young core of major league-ready talent is in place, they can supplement that core by investing in expensive veteran talent. The Padres first did this when they signed Eric Hosmer to an 8-year deal, and then again the following offseason when they inked Manny Machado for 10 years. The Cubs followed this rationale when they signed Jon Lester six years ago, and it helped them win a World Series shortly thereafter.
This strategy is proven: supplementing a young core with free agent talent is the kind of thing teams with plenty of good, cheap players with multiple years of control can afford to do. It takes money to build a dynasty in this way, but the Padres are only a medium-sized market team themselves, so it may be sensible for the Mariners to spend at the top of the market next offseason. An Ace to lead a rotation featuring any four of Marco Gonzales, Justus Sheffield, Justin Dunn, Logan Gilbert, and George Kirby could be just the jolt they need. Or perhaps they’d prefer to delve into the deepest free agent shortstop class in recent memory, which will include Francisco Lindor, Javier Báez, Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, and Trevor Story. Either route would be a great augmentation to their core.
Do the Mariners have a good shot at making the playoffs in 2021? Not exactly, no. In fact, that’s a pretty unlikely scenario. Still, with a little good fortune and a few judicious acquisitions, they could not only find themselves in the playoffs come 2022 – they could find themselves there as division champions. The Angels have been unable to get their act together to this point, the Astros’ window of contention is clearly on the verge of closing, and the frugal A’s continue to be perennial contenders without ever really understanding why. The Rangers, sadly, hardly even deserve a mention here.
The Mariners’ time to end their futility and part the rainclouds is imminent. Maybe someone should warn the good folks of Seattle about what it’s like to stand in the sun – and that it’s best to wear sunblock.
-Michael Swinehart
